The college football season may have months left to go before we crown a CFP champion, but the coaching carousel is already shaping up. Billy Napier of Florida, Sam Pittman of Arkansas, and even Mike Gundy, the longtime coach of Oklahoma State, have already been fired along with a handful of others, including the most recent firing of Brian Kelly from LSU just the other day. The firings have been coming in hot and heavy so far this season, but the one that stands out is clearly James Franklin from Penn State.
The Nittany Lions fired their head coach after more than 11 seasons and a 104-45 career record. This shocked the college football world and left a gigantic hole at head coach for an elite Big Ten school; it also left a highly prestigious coach without a job going into next season.
These are happenings that make the potential coach carousel going into the next season all the more interesting. I felt that EA’s College Football 26 could help illuminate how things might play out in the coaching sphere going into next season, not just with Penn State and James Franklin, but also with all the other big-time coaches.
The Process
As far as I know, no “play from current week” option in CFB 26 would allow you to play Dynasty mode with current season team records and game results already in place, so to create an accurate snapshot of the college football landscape, I needed to put in some work. I created a new Dynasty Mode with a random team (Miami of Ohio, in case anyone was interested), turned on automatic simulation for every option (recruiting, player progression, coach upgrades, etc.), and then went to the team schedule.
I opened up Google and found team schedules and matched the results in-game using the force win option. For instance, I went through all of Indiana’s games and forced wins through the current week. I only did this for the power five teams and a few of the best group of five colleges; it didn’t take nearly as long as I thought it would.
I changed I few things to ensure that certain coaches would be fired, such as forcing Penn State to go 0-8 in their first eight games to ensure that James Franklin doesn’t miraculously keep his job, I did this with all of the other coaches who were fired as well, except for Brian Kelly and LSU as that firing wasn’t announced at the time of this experiment. This resulted in LSU keeping him in my simulation, which may alter things slightly, as James Franklin could be a contender to land that job if it becomes open.
Penn State’s Head Coach Search
Top targets:
- Shane Beamer, South Carolina
- Matt Campbell, Iowa State
- Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Penn State, being one of the preeminent teams in college football, was looking for a coach and was able to snag its first option easily, hiring Shane Beamer as its new head coach. Beamer only went 7-6 on the season, but was by far the most coveted coach in the carousel (maybe the game is getting him confused with Curt Cignetti? lol). This is unlikely to happen in real life, as I don’t think Beamer is considered the most coveted coach out there.
I agree that Lane Kiffin and possibly Matt Campbell could be in the running, although the consensus right now seems to be Curt Cignetti of undefeated Indiana or Matt Rhule, who previously coached the Carolina Panthers and Nebraska.
Luke Fickell (former head coach at Wisconsin) was hired as the defensive coordinator, and Jason Candle (Former head coach of Toledo) was hired as the offensive coordinator.
James Franklin’s Journey
He was the top target for:
- Boston College’s head coach
- Virginia Tech’s head coach
He was also in the running for:
- Wisconsin’s head coach
- Florida’s head coach
He was behind Shane Beamer for the Florida job. Once Beamer went to Penn State, Franklin jumped at the chance to coach the Gators. As the new coach of the Florida Gators, Franklin will take over a team that CFB 26 predicted would only win four games this season. They have won eight games a couple of times over the past few seasons, but haven’t won more than that in a season since 2019.
With James Franklin winning 10 or more games in four of the last five eligible seasons (the Big 10 didn’t play 10 games in 2020) he brings a winning attitude to a team that could absolutely use it.
I think CFB 26 was absolutely on the money with this pick. Florida seems like a great place for Franklin. The other two spots I could see him landing in as well are Auburn or LSU, which, of course, weren’t available for this simulation because Brian Kelly kept his job.
The Other Notable Head Coach Firings
- Lincoln Riley, USC
- Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
- Jedd Fisch, Washington
- Hugh Freeze, Auburn
- Billy Napier, Florida (happened)
- Sherrone Moore, Michigan
- Jonathan Smith, Michigan State
- Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
- Sam Pittman, Arkansas (happened)
- Deshaun Foster, UCLA (happened)
- Bill O’Brien, Boston College
Lincoln Riley is a bit of a shock, since it was only a few seasons ago that he was seen as one of the top coaches in the country, so I think in reality, he may be given a longer leash. Fickell, Freeze, and Frisch aren’t surprising at all, but what really shocked me was Sherrone Moore being let go by Michigan. I know they’re only 2-4 right now, and in this simulation they only end up with four wins, but I was definitely not expecting Michigan to fire Moore so soon after Harbaugh left the keys in his hands, I kind of figured that he was going to be allowed to build up his own program and recruit his own players, he hasn’t had that opportunity yet!
Now that Michigan is on the open market, Penn State has competition for the top coaches in the country. Michigan could potentially convince any coach to leave their current team to join them. I wouldn’t say any team is safe from poaching, with Michigan and Penn State on the market.
The Other Notable Head Coach Hirings
- Steve Sarkisian went from Texas to Michigan
- Lane Kiffin went from Ole Miss to Texas
- Clark Lea went from Vanderbilt to Virginia Tech
- Ryan Silverfield went from Memphis to Auburn
- Eliah Drinkwitz went from Missouri to Arkansas
- Kilani Sitake went from BYU to Oklahoma State
- Kyle Whittingham went from Utah to USC
- Justin Wilcox went from Cal to UCLA
- Lincoln Riley went from USC to Washington
- Lance Leipold went from Kansas to Wisconsin
- Clay Helton went from Georgia Southern to South Carolina
- Thomas Hammock went from Northern Illinois to Michigan
- Timmy Chang went from Hawaii to BYU
- Tony Elliott went from Virginia to Missouri
- Jedd Fisch went from Washington to Utah
- Billy Napier went from Florida to Memphis
- Sherrone Moore went from Michigan to Boston College
- Hugh Freeze went from Auburn to Troy
- Mike Gundy went from Oklahoma State to Delaware
- Jonathan Smith went from Michigan State to Fresno State
- Tony Sanchez went from New Mexico State to Ole Miss
Michigan, as predicted, goes big and secures one of the top coaches in the country, while Texas, in this simulation, shakes off the early-season rust and makes the college football playoffs with Arch Manning as their quarterback. Steve Sarkisian gets rewarded with a comfy job as the Michigan Wolverines head coach. Texas, as a dominant force in the country, had its pick of coaches and took Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
This left Ole Miss holding the bag without any good options. They turned to New Mexico State head coach Tony Sanchez, who went 3-9 in Conference USA and enters his new job already on the hot seat.
In other coaching news, Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea took a massive job downgrade to coach Virginia Tech after leading Vanderbilt to a 10-win season, just missing the playoffs by a smidge. BYU coach Kilani Sitake replaces Mike Gundy in what will be a major culture change for Oklahoma State, Lincoln Riley takes over Washington, looking to recapture the magic of the Kalen DeBoer era, and Sherrone Moore goes to Boston College to try and add onto the mess Bill O’Brien left behind.
All in all, this experiment concluded with a messy array of coaching changes that don’t make a lot of sense, most of which are doomed to fail or are merely a cynical ploy to garner more media attention. So, with that said, I would say this simulation was very accurate to real life.
