With political crises flaring in Venezuela and Guatemala and concerns about the rise of autocratic leaders in Mexico and Brazil there are a lot of important stories to follow in Latin America to follow right now. Investors doing due diligence in Latin America need to understand a broad array of political risks. Over the last few weeks I’ve shared links to a number of great articles on Twitter.
MEXICO. On March 11 I tweeted this Miami Herald op-ed in which Andres Oppenheimer explains, “Mexico’s left-of-center President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s popularity rate has risen to a whopping 86 percent since he took office Dec. 1, and there are no signs that his honeymoon will end anytime soon. But that does not necessarily mean that he’s doing great.” Oppenheimer explains that it is still not clear that Lopez Obrador will be able to finance his ambitious social spending program simply by reducing corruption and waste. “Many fear that Mexico will pay a huge price for his outdated populist-nationalist policies,” he adds.
VENEZUELA. On March 14 I tweeted this Economist article about Venezuela’s ongoing economic and political crisis as Nicolas Maduro, an incompetent dictator, desperately tries to cling to power as international clamor for a change in leadership grows. Most recently Venezuela has become plagued by devastating and deadly blackouts. The dynamic is likely to deteriorate further before it improves. “Venezuela’s economy, which has shrunk by 50% since Mr Maduro succeeded Chávez in 2013, will now shrink faster,” the article explains.
GUATEMALA. On March 21 I tweeted this podcast discussion between Guatemala scholar Jo-Marie Burt and Adam Isaacson, a director at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a think tank. In the podcast Burt discusses ongoing efforts by Guatemala’s business leaders to protect war criminals and undermine efforts to fight corruption. “Guatemala was taking gigantic steps forward with reckoning with some of the most heinous crimes of the past. I think what you see happening is a convergence of actors for whom these advances in justice are a huge problem.”
ARGENTINA. On March 22 I tweeted this Bloomberg article about Argentina’s economic quagmire and the challenges president Mauricio Macri faces while trying to confront the crisis while also seeking re-election. In the article Patrick Gillespie explains, “Argentine President Mauricio Macri is betting that lower inflation and a stable currency will ultimately matter more than economic growth to voters, a gamble that could backfire in this year’s election.”
PERU. On March 25 I tweeted this Guardian report on the fight to clamp down on illegal mining in Peru. In the article Dan Collyns explains, “There was also environmental destruction on an epic scale. The south side of La Pampa merges into a 110 sq km scar of clear-cut forest in Tambopata national reserve, one of Peru’s best-known national parks. Illegal mining, which has reached epidemic proportions in six Amazon nations, has left an indelible mark on the ecosystem in this remote jungle region, known as Peru’s ‘biodiversity capital.’”
BRAZIL. On March 27 I tweeted this Jon Lee Anderson article for The New Yorker which looks at the rise of Brazil’s new controversial, Trump-supporting, autocratic president. Anderson explains, “authoritarian leaders taking power around the world share a vocabulary of intolerance, insult, and menace. Jair Bolsonaro, who was elected President of Brazil on promises to end crime, right the economy, and ‘make Brazil great,’ has spent his career gleefully offending women, black people, environmentalists, and gays.”
Join the discussion on Twitter. Let me know what you think of these articles.
