The 2019 Miami Dolphins are off to a historically bad start. The lack of offensive production, defensive stopping power and everything in between have been on a level the NFL hasn’t seen in quite some time. But will it actually end with the Dolphins winning zero games in 2019?
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has run 10,000 simulations of each of the Dolphins’ remaining 13 games — and it currently gives the team a 13.4% chance of finishing the season 0-16.
Here’s some added context of what figure courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.
“The (FPI) model gives (the Dolphins) a 13.4% chance of losing out and going 0-16, which is remarkably high given just how many chances they still have to win a game. For context, three weeks into Cleveland’s 0-16 season, FPI thought the Browns had just a 0.4% shot of going winless. FPI thinks Miami’s chances of going 0-16 are about the same as the Rams’ chances of winning the Super Bowl, pegging the latter at 14.8%.” – Bill Barnwell, ESPN
Pretty stunning numbers — particularly when holding up the odds of the 2017 Cleveland Browns’ winless season to those of the 2019 Miami Dolphins. But the Dolphins will have several opportunities to get in the win column. They still face the 0-3 New York Jets (twice), the 0-3 Washington Redskins, the 0-3 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals this season.
The draft order will sort itself out — but despite the horrid start, 10,000 simulations courtesy of ESPN still thinks Miami will squeak out a win somewhere along the line. If they don’t — fine. The Dolphins decided to be bad this year, at least they’re excelling at that. If the Dolphins steal a win? It isn’t the end of the world — and it may prevent the 2019 Dolphins from going down as the worst team in modern NFL history.
That wouldn’t be too much to ask for as a consolation prize, would it?
