VOTERS will go to the polls on Thursday to cast their verdict in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election.
It is being seen as a crucial test of the public’s mood less than one year out from the wider Holyrood election next May.
The SNP have held the seat since it was created in 2011, but they now face a new adversary in Reform UK, and this vote is set to show us whether the rise of Nigel Farage’s party seen south of the Border is indeed something to be concerned about in Scotland.
But what are the leading issues dominating discussions on the doorsteps?
Winter Fuel Payment cut
It was the first move Labour made when they came into Government, but it has been an albatross around their neck ever since.
The decision to make the Winter Fuel Payment means-tested, taking it from all but the poorest pensioners, has left a bad taste in the mouths of many who put their faith in Keir Starmer’s party last June.
Voters have already made sure Labour know just how hacked off they are, with the party suffering badly in the English local elections and losing the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last month.
Funnily enough, there are now signs senior Government figures are discussing whether to reverse the decision, given its disastrous impact on the party’s popularity.
The policy was widely seen as illogical. It was set to save the Government around £1.4 billion but a group of experts from the Social Security Advisory Committee warned in October: “It is not clear how the tension between the two goals of fiscal savings and increased take-up of pension credit is resolved within the plans”.
More than 10 million pensioners lost out on payments worth up to £300 last year and the fact it was the first move Labour made has severely dented the trust people have in them going forward.
Frustration over Labour
But it is not just the Winter Fuel Payment cut that has got people up in arms about Labour’s performance in Government.
The Government’s decision to keep the two-child cap – a Tory policy – in place has infuriated many given several charities say it is the single biggest driver of child poverty in the UK.
Elsewhere, the Labour Government refused to give compensation to 1950s-born women affected by changes to the state pension age despite being recommended to do so by the parliamentary ombudsman.
UK voters now have the most unfavourable view of Labour ever recorded, according to YouGov. Just 26% of Brits have a favourable view of Starmer’s party, while 65% think the opposite, according to a recent poll. Starmer’s rating now stands at -46, which is his lowest-ever level.
They don’t appear to have given themselves a leg-up in his by-election either, with candidate Davy Russell refusing to appear at any debates or hustings.
Cost of living
The SNP’s candidate Katy Loudon told STV the cost of living was the biggest issue in people’s minds.
Labour came into government amid a cost of living crisis largely driven by Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget which sent interest rates through the roof.
But not much has changed under Labour. At the end of March, a YouGov poll said 81% of people felt the Government is badly handling the cost of living, with four in 10 saying they had had to make cuts to their usual spending and expect to have to do again in the future.
Labour promised to bring down energy bills by £300 but this has still not materialised. The party has also ruled out any more cost of living payments in 2025.
When people feel they can’t afford to live their lives or even survive, the party in Government will always suffer badly.
Local issues – Buses and town centre funding
While you may not have heard too much about them, there are a few local matters that have popped up in debates which may be on voters’ minds in this by-election.
South Lanarkshire Council is working on a 15-year plan to demolish two-thirds of the existing shops in Hamilton, including both shopping centres, and build 450 new homes as well as a new urban park space.
Loudon said in response to not backing the plan: “What we’re talking about here is one line in a Labour amendment at South Lanarkshire’s budget. I’m very proud, not only of the record of our SNP group at South Lanarkshire Council, but what we have chosen to back.”
Elsewhere in the constituency, many people are concerned about cuts to school buses. From August, the Labour-run council is set to only provide free transport to students who live more than three miles from their catchment secondary school, rather than the current two-mile limit.
The SNP say this amounts to cutting bus services for as many as 8246 school children.
Disillusionment
Finally, people being disillusioned with politicians and politics is a huge matter in this by-election, and a major reason why Reform – who are constantly talking about the failures of the political establishment – are seeing a surge in the polls.
When The National did vox pops with people in Hamilton, many of them said they did not know who to vote for because no one spoke for them or were voting for Reform because they were hacked off at everyone else.
This feeling could hugely impact turnout with people feeling unmotivated to vote and it is likely to lead to a party winning the seat despite not actually having that much support.
