The stock markets have been on an amazing run in recent years, with the S&P 500 more than doubling since the beginning of the decade and the Dow rising by nearly 75%.
What does the future hold for the stock markets? We asked leading AI chatbots ChatGPT, Grok and Gemini that question. Here’s what they had to say — along with what it could mean for your wallet.
Short-to-Medium Term Performance
ChatGPT and Grok are on the same page regarding how the stock market will perform over the next couple of years, with both forecasting moderate growth that will likely not match the stellar gains of 2025.
Here’s what ChatGPT expects during the next one to three years:
The U.S. stock market should continue rising through 2026, though gains “may be more moderate” than the strong run of recent years. Expect high-single-digit to low-double-digit returns, supported by corporate earnings and economic resilience.
Here’s Grok’s near-term call:
“Solid but more moderate performance” compared to the “exceptional” gains of the early 2020s, driven primarily by AI-related productivity and earnings growth, while facing headwinds from elevated valuations and potential economic uncertainties.
Gemini takes a slightly more bullish view, projecting an average S&P 500 return of 9% to 12% in 2026, with upside as high as 15%. That’s roughly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 12% gain for the S&P 500 in 2026.
Here are some other near-term forecasts from Gemini:
While tech has led the way in recent years, 2027 and 2028 are expected to see healthcare, Industrials and small-caps “catch up” as interest rates stabilize.
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Longer-Term Outlook
Forecasts beyond the next three to five years are more uncertain, as unforeseen events can significantly impact markets. According to ChatGPT, many forecast models “suggest lower average annual returns” of 4% to 7% compared with recent decades, due to higher valuations and structural shifts. Grok cites a similar range based on average long-term forecasts.
These are some other long-term market forecasts from AI:
- Grok: Optimistic scenarios see “much higher returns” if AI truly transforms the economy, but baseline views assume more gradual adoption and potential volatility if earnings disappoint.
- Gemini: Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan generally expect the S&P 500 to grow at a slower, more “normalized” pace as high valuations and aging demographics act as a drag, partially offset by an “AI productivity boom.”
Structural Changes
Each of the chatbots expects AI to keep transforming the way stocks are analyzed and valued. Here’s a look at some structural changes to expect:
- AI: AI-related companies and sectors like semiconductors, cloud computing and data infrastructure are set to become “core drivers” of market returns. This structural shift is attracting capital and influencing how portfolios are constructed, with growing emphasis on AI value chains rather than individual tech names alone. (ChatGPT)
- On-Chain Finance: The stock market structure is moving toward tokenization, where traditional assets are recorded on blockchain-like ledgers. This allows for faster settlement and 24/7 trading capabilities. (Gemini)
- Fewer Stocks to Choose From: The number of publicly listed U.S. companies has declined from about 7,300 to 8,800 in the 1990s to roughly 4,000 to 4,300 today. That trend is expected to continue as companies remain private longer and private equity buyouts remove firms from public markets. (Grok).
What Does It Mean for Your Wallet?
Here are some bottom-line conclusions about how future market trends will directly impact your wallet:
- ChatGPT: For the average American’s wallet, future stock market trends mean slower investment growth, higher pressure to save, and bigger consequences for financial mistakes.
- Grok: Americans with retirement savings invested in the market can expect continued growth in 401(k) and IRA balances. Those without meaningful stock exposure, or facing higher living costs, may see little benefit.
- Gemini: While the stock market thrives, “sticky” inflation, projected around 2.4% to 2.7%, means your daily expenses for food and energy may still feel high. Your wallet feels full if you own stocks, but it may feel tight if you rely solely on a paycheck that isn’t keeping pace with market-driven inflation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always consider your individual circumstances and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: What AI Predicts About the Future of the Stock Market — and Your Wallet
