So long, farewell, we'll see you in the morning
We will bring you more analysis of the Western Australian election result, including a detailed breakdown of the new Legislative Council, on Sunday morning. Err, later on Sunday morning.
Thanks for sticking with us through this fairly brutal redrawing of the WA political landscape. It will be interesting to see what comes next
You can read a summary of the result here.
Updated
A final look at those upper house results
There’s still a lot that is unknown in the Legislative Council race, but we now have quite a lot of votes counted so have some idea of who might win. Overall about 30% of the vote has been counted in five out of six regions, with barely 5% counted in the Mining and Pastoral region.
It’s clear that the Liberal Party has been hit hard. On current numbers, the Liberal Party has lost a seat in every region, and has lost two in the East Metro and South West regions. The Nationals are currently on track to maintain their five seats.
Overall the combined seats for Labor and the Greens has increased significantly. At the moment the two parties combined are on track for seventeen seats, up from thirteen in the old Council.
Interestingly, both of the sitting Greens MLCs are currently on track to lose, although a small uptick in the Greens and Labor vote in the South Metro region would put sitting Greens MLC Lynn McLaren back into parliament.
We are also on track for an explosion in the size and diversity of the upper house crossbench. Currently One Nation is on track to win only one seat. They polled higher than any other minor parties other than the Greens, but didn’t reach the levels predicted by earlier polls. If they had polled at those levels, they would have won seats without the need for preferences, but instead they found themselves competing with other minor parties.
The ABC results estimates currently give two seats to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, and one each to the Liberal Democrats, Fluoride Free WA and One Nation, but many of these results are subject to change. At times we’ve seen the Daylight Savings Party on track to win a seat. On current numbers, Labor and the Greens will likely need the vote of two of these crossbenchers to pass legislation, although a boost in the Labor and Greens vote could give them an extra seat and make the equation simpler.
At this point we know most of what we will know tonight regarding the lower house. By my count Labor has won at least 38 seats. The Liberal party is on 11, and the Nationals are on five.
I have five seats listed as undecided. Kalgoorlie is very messy and we don’t even know which candidates are the top two, so it’s not possible to conduct an indicative preference count. The preference count has barely started in Pilbara, so it’s not clear if that seat will stay with the Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls, or flip to Labor.
There are three seats which are conventional Liberal v Labor races. Labor is leading with 51% after preferences in Murray-Wellington and leading by a handful of votes in Jandakot. The Liberal party is narrowly ahead in Geraldton.
Updated
So, where do we stand now?
Let’s take a final look at that spectacular election result.
Colin Barnett has been ousted as premier, replaced by premier-elect Mark McGowan. Three Barnett government ministers have lost their seats, along with the Speaker and a number of other senior figures.
We’re still waiting on a full analysis of the upper house results – it looks as though One Nation has picked up at least one spot, as has the micro-party Fluoride Free WA.
Here are the key numbers:
- Labor has picked up a guaranteed 14 additional lower house seats, and could pick up as many as 21, which would see it control 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly
- The results show a 16% drop in the Liberal party’s primary vote
- One Nation’s primary vote was just 4.5%, significantly lower than predicted in the polls, but it did poll as high as 11% in the regional seats of Pilbara and Kalgoorlie
- The National party vote only dropped 0.6%, despite a sustained campaign by the mining lobby, but the seat of the WA Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls, is still in doubt
- Labor recorded an average statewide swing of 8.9% but where it counted, in metropolitan and outer-metropolitan Perth, it recorded swings of up to 20%
Updated
An update from the count in the Pilbara: the WA Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls, is behind Labor’s Kevin Michel in first-preference votes but could still retain the seat once the preferences are distributed.
One Nation has polled quite well in the seat, with 11.3% of the vote for David Archibald.
Grylls told the ABC he will not know the result tonight.
Brendon Grylls acknowledges swing against him in @bhpbilliton dominated town of Newman as #Pilbara seat too close to call tonight #wavotes pic.twitter.com/xZ5It2XaBi
— ABC North West WA (@abcNorthwestwa) March 11, 2017
Updated
Ladies and gentlemen, the next premier of Western Australia.
Updated
Here’s Mark McGowan’s victory speech in full:
Thank you, thank you! Thank you. Can I just begin by saying thank you to the people of Western Australia? To the people of Western Australia, you have been magnificent. Can I also just say there: Western Australia is truly a wonderful state. It’s the greatest – the greatest people in the greatest state in the greatest country in the world.
I love this place. It’s done more for me than I can ever repay. I came here 27 years ago in my Corolla across the Nullabor, and today – and today the people of Western Australia have made me premier. Thank you.
Today West Australians voted for hope and opportunity over desperation and division. Today we showed we are a state of decency and intelligence, not a state of stupidity and ignorance.
Today, as always, West Australians showed the way for the rest of the country. The core Australian values of equality, fairness, merit and opportunity shone through in this election campaign. They are West Australian values and they are Labor’s values. Thank you to the great Australian Labor party. Our great party, which stands on the side of everyday Australians, and a better quality of life for all, has been successful in Western Australia today. Our party is responsible for so much of what is good in our country today. Today we have demonstrated our resilience, our tenacity and that when the cause is just we will prevail.
With success comes responsibility. And the obligation to implement our program. It’s time for a fresh approach. We stand for WA jobs, WA jobs first. Decent healthcare, quality education, community safety, Metronet and responsible financial management, and we will not privatise Western Power. We will get to work immediately on carrying out our plans. We will consult, listen and work with all elements of the West Australian community. We will govern in the interests of all West Australians.
I have met thousands of West Australians over the course of my time as opposition leader. In schools, hospitals, workplaces and shopping malls. Across the suburbs, and across the regions. West Australians are hard-working, kind, friendly people, decent people.
You deserve good government, and with my team I am committed to delivering just that. Now I’d like to provide some thank yous to everyone here. It has been a long, hard road for me and my team. To our successful candidates and members, congratulations. Enjoy the moment. Can I acknowledge the state secretary, Patrick Gorman, and the Labor headquarters? All the workers, the volunteers, the union movement. The union movement and all of the Labor supporters across our great state. This was a truly great campaign.
And I’d like to especially acknowledge Labor’s community action network for all you’ve done. Thank you – thank you to all those people who were out there door-knocking, phoning, handing out, people who are currently scrutineering at polling booths. You’re terrific. I can never repay you.
Can I acknowledge my staff, in particular I acknowledge Guy Houston, Joe Gains, Danielle and Carina Graham in the Rockingham office. A great effort on behalf of everyone on my staff. And to all those candidates who have not been successful tonight, can I thank you for your efforts. It’s a tough time to run and not win. I appreciate everything you’ve done and we thank you very much.
Can I particularly thank the people who came from over east to help, and I want to in that context mention a few. Can I thank Bob Hawke. I achieved one of my lifetime’s ambitions during this campaign. I had a beer with Bob Hawke.
Can I thank Bill Shorten, who came over three times during the course of the campaign. And can I thank former premier Geoff Gallop who came from Sydney to help as well. And can I also acknowledge someone who didn’t come from far away but my friend and mentor Kim Beazley. A great West Australian. Without Kim I wouldn’t be standing here tonight.
Can I also thank our premier, Colin Barnett, and his wife, Lynn, after their long service to the state of Western Australia. Can I especially acknowledge premier Colin Barnett on his many years of public service both as a minister and premier of Western Australia. Thank you, Colin, on behalf of the people of Western Australia.
Can I thank the people of Rockingham. Thank you, thank you for your support again. You’ve been so good to me over such a long period of time. I can also never repay you.
Can I thank my family. Can I start with my mother and father-in-law, Gwen and Neil Miller who are over here. Thank you so much for everything you have done for us.
Can I thank my own mother and father, Mary and Dennis, and my brother Michael, who are here on the stage as well. I love you very, very much and I hope I’ve made you proud today. And to my mum and dad, can I make a special thanks. I think you helped me win the caravan and camping boat today, with that front-page photo. To my beautiful wife, Sarah, and our three children, Samuel, Alexander and Amelia. I love you very much. And without you, I wouldn’t be here today either.
Finally, again, can I thank the people of Western Australia for the trust you have provided to me. We won’t let you down. My team and I will govern in the public interests on behalf of everyone in Western Australia, irrespective of how you voted today and irrespective of where you live in our great state. Thank you so much to the people of Western Australia.
And lastly, the work starts now. Thanks very much.
Updated
Mark McGowan claims victory
The premier-elect, Mark McGowan, has arrived at Rockingham and is giving his victory speech.
I love this place. It’s done more for me than I can ever repay. I came here 27 years ago in my Corolla across the Nullabor, and today – and today the people of Western Australia have made me premier. Thank you.
McGowan says the state chose “hope and opportunity over desperation and division”.
Today we showed we are a state of decency and intelligence, not a state of stupidity and ignorance.
Premier in waiting Mark McGowan pic.twitter.com/i33J7fXIcE
— Gary Adshead (@Gary_Adshead) March 11, 2017
Updated
Mark McGowan is expected to arrive at the Labor function any second now, but before he does, a note about what this win means for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation.
The Yamatji man Ben Wyatt, cousin of the federal Liberal MP Ken Wyatt, will be the next treasurer. It’s the first time an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander has held that position in any Australian jurisdiction, which is huge. It’s also likely the state will have an Aboriginal affairs minister who is also an Aboriginal person, which is very significant.
Wyatt will be joined in caucus by a Kija woman, Josie Farrer.
Will @benwyatt be the first Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander treasurer? Because that's pretty cool. #wavotes
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) March 11, 2017
Updated
To the upper house, now
We’re starting to get some small numbers in from the upper house.
Antony Green’s preference calculator gives the final seats to the Shooters in Agricultural and One Nation in the South West. In both regions, the calculator gives Labor an additional seat.
It also appears that Labor and the Greens could win four seats between them in the East and South Metro regions – in both regions the combined Labor/Greens vote is over four quotas in the lower house, and is sitting at a similar level in the small number of upper house votes counted so far.
It also appears likely that Labor or the Greens will gain a seat in the North Metro region. If the left wins an additional seat in all six upper house regions, that would give Labor and the Greens a majority.
Updated
Here’s Colin Barnett’s concession speech, in full:
First, can I congratulate Mark McGowan and the Labor party. They have had an emphatic, convincing victory. I do sincerely congratulate them and wish them well to provide good government to the people of Western Australia.
I would like to thank all of the candidates, including sitting members of parliament; all of the campaign teams, the many, many volunteers who have worked on booths for the Liberal party, and indeed for all parties, right across this great state of Western Australia.
I particularly want to thank the Liberal party headquarters, all those who have assisted in so many, many ways. We ran in my view a great campaign, there were a lot of factors out there, but at the end of the day, time was probably the factor. So thank you very much. And it is a daunting thing to think about literally thousands of people across Western Australia, over an area the size of Europe, out there, peacefully exercising their democratic right to cast their vote, and their democratic right to support the party or the candidate of their choice. So I thank you all, a great demonstration of West Australian democracy. Well done.
To those particularly, those Liberal members of parliament who have lost their seat, my heart goes out to you. In a campaign, you put every effort into it, and to your families, and your staff, and all those affected, politics is a brutal, harsh business, and that is a devastating thing and it leaves people’s whole lives in limbo. It’s an enormous emotional strain and it happens in politics, that’s the nature of the beast. So I thank you for being members of parliament. I thank all of your staff for the work you have done for the Liberal party and the government of Western Australia, you have done us all proud.
When we won the election in 2008, and I became the state’s 29th premier, I made some commitments. Some to myself and some I made publicly. The one I made to myself was that I would give it my best shot. Maybe that wasn’t good enough, but I assure you, I have given it my best shot in every sense.
And the pledges I made to the people of Western Australia way back in 2008, that we would be a pro-development government, and we have been. And we would be a government caring and compassionate for those in need, and we have, and I also said we would be a government of integrity and we have, and we should proud of that.
So I’m sure there will be all sorts of analyses under taken as to and why and what happened. I won’t be part of that. I will sit back and let others do that. To me, the overwhelming factor was time. And it is a phenomena I guess, particularly in Australian politics, that the electorate, the voters, only give a government, a people, a certain amount of time. It seems to be the trend.
And during the eight and a half years and that we’ve been in government, we have seen five prime ministers and five premiers of New South Wales, and four of Victoria and so on, so we have provided long-term, and stable, and in any judgment, very good and ethical government for the people of Western Australia, in often very, very difficult circumstances.
For myself and Lynn, can we just simply say, thank you. When I first went in politics, I did always have an ambition to be one day be premier. Many times I never thought I would achieve it. To be premier of Western Australia for eight and a half years, in the postwar era, second only to Sir David Brand in the 60s, it would be a rare event in the future.
So I want to say to the people of Western Australia, I thank you so ... so genuinely and sincerely for giving me the opportunity to be the premier of the great state of Western Australia. It’s a great gift you have given to Lynn and I, and I will treasure that for the rest of our lives, thank you.
Thanks. Thanks very much. Enjoy the night.
Updated
Colin Barnett concedes to Mark McGowan
The outgoing Western Australian premier, Colin Barnett, has arrived at the Liberal party function in Cottesloe and delivered his concession speech.
First, can I congratulate Mark McGowan and the Labor party. They have had an emphatic, convincing victory. I do sincerely congratulate them and wish them well to provide good government to the people of Western Australia.
He has thanked Liberal party MPs and volunteers, and blamed the loss on how long he’s been in government – it’s eight and a half years since he won victory in 2008.
To me, the overwhelming factor was time.
Updated
Premier Colin Barnett has reportedly arrived at the Liberal party function in Cottesloe. Stand by for the concession speech.
Updated
I’m now seeing predictions of Labor winning 40 of the 59 lower house seats. It only had 20 members of the Legislative Assembly going into this, so it has doubled its numbers.
This is a record-breaking election for Western Australia.
Updated
14 seats for Labor, a ‘savage result’ for the Liberal party
Guardian Australia’s election analyst, Ben Raue, has came to the same conclusion as the ABC. Fourteen firm seats for Labor, with a possible three more to follow.
This is from Ben:
I count 14 seats Labor has gained from the Liberal party: Balcatta, Belmont, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Darling Range, Forrestfield, Joondalup, Morley, Mount Lawley, Perth, Southern River, Swan Hills, Wanneroo and West Swan.
Labor is also leading in Burns Beach and Geraldton, and Kalgoorlie will take days or weeks to decide.
Michael Keenan described it as a “savage result” for the Liberal party.
Federal opposition leader Bill Shorten has chimed in:
WA's message to PM:
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) March 11, 2017
1. Hands off penalty rates
2. No more deals with One Nation
Updated
From the Australian’s chief reporter, Andrew Burrell.
Labor will win 19 seats.
— Andrew Burrell (@AndrewBurrell7) March 11, 2017
The ABC has only given away 14 seats, and may I say that two weeks ago no one would have imagined that 14 seats would be a conservative estimate.
Updated
The One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, has blamed her party’s poorer than expected result (One Nation has just above 4% of the vote so far, down from a polling high a few weeks ago of 11%) on the preference deal.
"The preference deal with the Liberal Party has done us damage.... it was a mistake"
— Charles Croucher (@ccroucher9) March 11, 2017
- @PaulineHansonOz pic.twitter.com/3u5Q0mag0u
And in case you’re wondering, no the ABC’s Nic Perpitch has not been allowed in. He told me he filmed this from outside the open doors. #NicWatch
One Nation supporters cheering as Paulin Hanson does a live interview in the same room. #wavotes @abcnewsPerth pic.twitter.com/ldCm10YMPr
— Nicolas Perpitch (@NicPerpitch) March 11, 2017
Updated
Labor has claimed victory, Barnett yet to concede
With 30 seats decided in our favour, WA Labor WILL form the next Government of Western Australia and @MarkMcGowanMP will be our Premier. pic.twitter.com/Bdgy4810Pp
— WA Labor (@walabor) March 11, 2017
Two significant developments.
First, the Barnett government environment minister, Albert Jacob, is at risk of losing his seat of Burns Beach. The seat is recording a 11.7% swing and Jacob is trailing Labor’s Mark Folkard, 40% to 44% on first-preference votes with about half of the ballots counted.
You might recognise Jacob as the man who gave regular and enthusiastic media conferences about the recovery of wild woylie numbers and the success of the Western Shield feral predator reduction program.
Michael Keenan, asked about the swing on the ABC, said:
Obviously when the swing’s on there’s not necessarily a lot of justice, it can be quite savage, and obviously Albert Jacob has been caught up in that.
Second, the Nationals WA leader, Brendon Grylls, appears to have held on to his seat of Pilbara, despite proposing a new mining tax. That’s very significant, considering mining lobby used the same playbook against Grylls that they used to take down two prime ministers. The results so far are showing a 7% swing towards Labor, but he’s still leading the first-preference vote.
But with a 7 per cent swing against him. https://t.co/uLxNlhNvmA
— Andrew Burrell (@AndrewBurrell7) March 11, 2017
Updated
Penny Wong is the first senior Labor frontbencher to congratulate Mark McGowan.
Congratulations @MarkMcGowanMP @PatrickPG and all at @walabor! Great to see Labor back in the west! #WAvotes2017
— Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) March 11, 2017
Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson has arrived at the One Nation party. No word on whether the ABC journo Nic Perpitch and his cameraman are still waiting outside.
Pauline Hanson arrives to applause at the One Nation party #WAvotes2017 pic.twitter.com/FJSTug23iw
— Matthew Knott (@KnottMatthew) March 11, 2017
Updated
A reminder that the Labor party has rolled out an actual red carpet for Mark McGowan, who is yet to show.
The red carpet @MarkMcGowanMP will walk down to address @walabor in #Rockingham & take the mantle of WA Premier elect. @abcperth #wavotes pic.twitter.com/XP6RKYj6NB
— Anthony Stewart (@anthonystewart) March 11, 2017
Updated
It looks like Labor has picked up an additional 13 seats, which would give it 33 seats in the lower house.
They are Balcatta, Collie-Preston, West Swan, Forrestfield, Perth, Swan Hills, Southern River, Bunbury, Burns Beach, Darling Range, Belmont, Morley, and Wanneroo.
Some of those seats have recorded swings of between 17% and 20% toward Labor, which is just massive. Much bigger than even the sunniest of Labor optimists would have hoped.
It’s worth noting that with the exception of Collie-Preston, which is a rural seat, and Bunbury, which is WA’s biggest regional city, all of those seats are in suburban Perth.
Both major commercial networks in Perth, Seven and Nine, have dubbed Labor leader Mark McGowan the new premier.
Both Channel 7 and Channel 9 have called it for Labor. #wavotes pic.twitter.com/tJ9RnNpZNZ
— Calla Wahlquist (@callapilla) March 11, 2017
“Extraordinary collapses in first-preference vote”
Antony Green, on the ABC, says the Liberal party first-preference vote has collapsed by 16% statewide. Some seats in Perth have recorded a drop of between 20% and 30% in Liberal first-preference votes.
Updated
Labor on track to win 11 seats, enough to form government
The trend at the moment suggests that Labor is on track to gain all of the Liberal seats held on margins of less than 11%.
Labor is recording large enough swings to win in Balcatta, Belmont, Collie-Preston, Forrestfield, Kalamunda, Morley, Perth, Southern River, Swan Hills, Wanneroo and West Swan, although in some cases this is based off a single strong booth.
We have no results from the other three Liberal seats held by margins of under 11% – no seat in this range has a swing small enough to allow the Liberal party to hold on.
Updated
Before we go to Ben Raue with some numbers, here’s a bit more on the side story of the ABC being kicked out of One Nation’s party.
Says Fairfax political reporter Matthew Knott:
Amazing ABC blocked from entering One Nation party. I walked in no probs. Media adviser says decision was made at high level #WAVotes2017
— Matthew Knott (@KnottMatthew) March 11, 2017
Updated
Labor will get at least 30 seats, says Green
Well, that was quick. The ABC’s Antony Green says he’s ready to “all but call it” for Labor.
Says Green, looking at his nifty model parliament:
That’s a pretty definite 30. At the moment I’m predicting 33. At this stage I think we can declare that the Labor party will win ... and it’s a matter of working out how narrow it is. At this stage the Liberals and Nationals, Liberals aren’t aren’t winning enough seats.
Updated
Swing ‘big enough to change the government’
Peter Abetz, brother of the more famous Eric, appears to have lost Southern River.
The sitting Liberal MLA just told Perth radio station 6PR that he appears to have lost his seat.
Peter Abetz tells @6PR: "I think I've lost my seat".
— Gareth Parker (@G_Parker) March 11, 2017
That’s signifiant because the margin in Southern River was 10.9%. And Labor only needed a 10% swing to win.
Said the ABC’s Antony Green: “The swing is large enough to produce a change in government.”
I just said on 6PR to Peter Abetz: "If Souther Tiver is gone, the Government is gone." Abetz: "I agree." @6PR #wavotes
— Gareth Parker (@G_Parker) March 11, 2017
According to the WA Electoral Commission, Labor has 52% of the primary vote with just over 5% of the votes in Southern River counted.
Updated
Labor calls the first two seats
In possibly the least surprising result of the night, WA Labor has called the seat of Perth for John Carey. Carey resigned as mayor of the City of Vincent, whose footprint overlaps the electorate, to run against the Liberal MLA Eleni Evangel.
Congratulations @JohnCareyPerth on winning the seat of Perth! #wapol #wavotes #WeAreWALabor pic.twitter.com/9CE3Frg8J6
— WA Labor (@walabor) March 11, 2017
It has also called Belmont for Cassie Rowe.
Congratulations @cassierowe on winning the seat of Belmont! #wapol #wavotes #WeAreWALabor pic.twitter.com/HpHaNYYJMP
— WA Labor (@walabor) March 11, 2017
That’s two of the 10 seats Labor needed down, presuming it doesn’t lose any.
Updated
You can’t sit with us
The ABC has reportedly been barred entry from One Nation’s election night party, which is being held in a bowling club in Melville, in Perth’s southern suburbs.
The ABC political reporter Nic Perpitch says he was told he did not have “authorisation” and was not “approved media”, a view confirmed by Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff, James Ashby.
Said Nic:
James Ashby said that it was a private function and he was sure that we would understand.
Full statement here:
@abcnews has been refused entry to the One Nation #wavotes election night HQ. pic.twitter.com/t0A9D6xyeK
— Nicolas Perpitch (@NicPerpitch) March 11, 2017
Updated
The ABC’s election guru, Antony Green, has doled out some early results.
The Nationals MP Mia Davies in the Central Wheatbelt appears likely – with 6% of the vote counted – to retain her seat. The Nationals vote is up in the regional electorate and the Liberal party vote is down.
Guardian Australia’s resident psephologist, Ben Raue, had this to say:
Central Wheatbelt is held by the Nationals by an 8.8% margin over the Liberal party. It appears that there has been a drop in the Liberal vote and a strengthened Nationals vote, with One Nation polling a distant second, based on six polling places.
In the first indication of a seat changing hands, Labor’s Jess Shaw is ahead in the outer metropolitan seat of Swan Hills. That’s “the first significant result,” says Green.
We’ve also got some early figures from Kalgoorlie, held by retiring the Nationals MP Wendy Duncan. Tony Crook, a former federal MP for the seat of O’Conner, was preselected to replace her, and is now trailing Labor’s Darren Forster.
Updated
One Nation is doing fairly well in regional booths, with only 3,600 votes (about 3% of the whole) counted. They’ve got 126, while the WA Nationals are leading the (very, very small and statistically inconsequential) pile with 495.
Four hundred votes counted so far have been from the electorate of Kalgoorlie, which brings us to this printing error.
English is my second language - but even I wouldn't stuff up spelling an electorate. Top work Pauline. You should run the country. pic.twitter.com/nywB6MNrmv
— Sam Dastyari (@samdastyari) March 11, 2017
Again, this is ludicrously early to be looking at the count and these results mean pretty much nothing.
Updated
Important update on election night viewing from the West Australian’s economics editor, Shane Wright.
And in Iron Man, Tony Stark has just told the world he is Iron Man ... #wavotes
— Shane Wright (@swrightwestoz) March 11, 2017
In other election night television news:
There’s more people called Kim on the panel than there are women on @9NewsPerth #wavotes #wapol
— Mark Reed (@markreedwa) March 11, 2017
There are two Kims on Channel Nine’s panel, the retiring WA health minister, Kim Hames, and the former federal Labor leader, Kim Beazley. The one woman is WA Labor’s Sue Ellery. It’s rounded out by four male political journos, including the incomparable Laurie Oakes.
Updated
We’ve got about 1,000 votes counted so far, mainly from smaller country booths. The Western Australian Electoral Commission’s live count is here.
The federal justice minister and Liberal MP from Perth, Michael Keenan, has in part defended the preference deal with One Nation, and in part dismissed it as unimportant.
Keenan is one of the panellists on ABC24, alongside the Labor MP Tim Hammond and the ABC political journo Jessica Strutt.
He told host James McHale that there were “all sorts of crazy political parties”, of which One Nation were presumably one.
I don’t think they’ve got some answers in terms of Australia’s political futures at all … and doing a preference deal is not about endorsing that party at all.
Updated
It’s not even half an hour since the polls closed but the Liberal party is already reportedly talking post-election leadership challenges.
This from the 6PR morning presenter and former political editor of the West Australian, Gareth Parker.
I can reveal that Joe Francis has told Lib powerbrokers he wants to nominate for leader if Libs lose - but he might not hold his seat. @6PR
— Gareth Parker (@G_Parker) March 11, 2017
Joe Francis, you might recall, is one of the senior Liberal figures who could lose his seat tonight. His electorate of Jandakot overlaps with the new federal seat of Burke, which saw a huge swing to Labor at the 2016 federal election.
Colin Barnett has said that he will “go quietly to the backbench” if Labor wins tonight, but he has spent the past few years setting up his deputy premier, Liza Harvey, to take over. If Francis follows through on Parker’s tip, that transition might not be smooth.
Updated
The WA treasurer, Mike Nahan, is on ABC24 talking up his government’s record over the past nine years, but also conceding that it will be very difficult to win a third term.
No, we’re not giving up but we know it’s a third term is always devil. Through a soft economy, we’re definitely going to lose some but the real question is who’s best to lead the state into growth in the future, that’s the essence issue, and it does come to hip-pocket issues but the real issue is who’s going to lead to growth and jobs.
Nahan took over as treasurer in 2014, right around the time the downturn of the mining boom really started to bite. That’s not his fault – those projects were always going to transition from construction to operation, and that was always going to result in a loss of jobs. The iron ore price crash was also not his fault, but it left a massive hole in the budget which Nahan was unable to fill.
He told the ABC he would stack the Barnett government’s economic record up “against anything”, even on the downward slope of the mining boom.
You can see around if you look not just green shoots in the brown but real brown shoots, the economy is in recovery.
Updated
Labor has rolled out an actual red carpet for its election night do in Rockingham, in Mark McGowan’s electorate.
The red carpet is ready, the stage set for a @MarkMcGowanMP victory speech in Rockingham. I'll be LIVE for @7NewsPerth from 6pm #WAdecides pic.twitter.com/JEOrd2hlT8
— Jessica Page (@JessicaPage7) March 11, 2017
Meanwhile, the Liberal party function is decidedly empty. Presumably that will fill up now the polls have closed.
Liberal election night HQ is very empty. @7NewsPerth #WAvotes2017 pic.twitter.com/NBPXFDOYmp
— Rob Scott (@Rob7Scott) March 11, 2017
Updated
Sound the klaxon: the polls have closed
Could we be headed for its biggest swing away from a sitting government in Western Australian history? Let’s find out!
Here’s a bit more on that Channel Nine/Galaxy exit poll.
#Galaxy Exit Poll WA State Primary Votes: LIB 33 (-14.1 since 2013) NAT 5 (-1.1) ALP 41 (+7.9) GRN 8 (-0.4) ON 6 (+6) #wavotes #auspol
— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) March 11, 2017
While we’re waiting for the polls to close, which will happen in nine minutes’ time, let’s take a minute to appreciate how much better the federal opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has got at a vital election-day duty since the federal election last year.
That was then.
Bill Shorten eats his first sausage sanga on Election Day in Sydney #ausvotes #auspol #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/7FHGAklI8u
— Mick Tsikas (@AAPMick) July 1, 2016
This is now.
Well done, Bill. A+ improvement.
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Also not talking about Pauline Hanson is the Nationals WA leader, Brendon Grylls.
Grylls spoke to the ABC’s Joanna Menagh before casting his vote at Tambrey primary school this afternoon.
Brendon Grylls spoke to us before voting #wavotes pic.twitter.com/P0IK16BRXG
— joanna menagh (@JoannaMenagh) March 11, 2017
He said he was not worried about losing his seat of the Pilbara, despite a sustained campaign by the mining lobby against his proposal to increase a special lease rental fee paid by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, the region’s two biggest employers, from $0.25 to $5 a tonne of iron ore.
Said Grylls:
We’ve created a debate and there’s people who won’t support our plan, but there’s people who will.
As for One Nation, well, that’s all the media’s fault.
The One Nation juggernaut was driven by the media who drove that agenda and didn’t stop talking about it. You can justify that.
He carried the same line in an interview with Guardian Australia earlier this week. Asked if he was concerned that One Nation’s David Archibald could win his seat, he replied:
I’m concerned about the inane amount of questions I’m asked on this topic.
Right, then.
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Let’s talk about Pauline
The conventional wisdom at the start of the WA election campaign was that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party would be a rising force that, in the manner of President Donald Trump and the Brexit vote, would take everybody by surprise. That seemed even more certain when the Liberal party struck a preference deal that would funnel votes towards the far-right party in the upper house.
It appears that the preference deal may have had the opposite effect.
Hanson told reporters today that people did not understand the preference deal and believed that she was “shoring up Mr Barnett, which is not the case”.
She said:
People are clearly very, very anti-Barnett, they want him gone, and it’s clear there is a swing against the Liberal party across the state.
The bit about not shoring up Barnett appears to be true, although unintentionally: One Nation did preference the Liberal party in its how-to-vote cards for the lower house but it seems no one is following them. According to exit polling conducted by Galaxy for Channel Nine, 50% of One Nation voters gave their second preference to Labor.
Channel Nine / Galaxy exit poll gives One Nation a Primary Vote of 6%. Almost 50% of One Nation preferences go to Labor. @9NewsPerth
— Josh Jerga (@josh_jerga) March 11, 2017
The premier, Colin Barnett, didn’t want to talk about One Nation when he cast his vote in his Cottesloe electorate with wife, Lynn, this morning.
He told the ABC:
I’m not talking about One Nation, it’s about the Liberal party today.
I’m here to vote, this is a happy day for me and Lynn, I don’t really care too much about Pauline Hanson or One Nation, my opponent is the Labor party and the choice for Western Australia is: do you want a Liberal government or do you want to go back to Labor and probably back to Dullsville?
I should also mention that Barnett referred to people enjoying election hot dogs, which is apocryphal and probably un-Australian. Shame on you, premier.
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One hour to go
Good evening! In just over an hour, we will start to see the first results filter in from the Western Australian state election.
The latest Newspoll, published this morning, has Labor leading 54 to 46 in two-party-preferred terms, which would see the Liberal and National parties lose their grip on government after nine years in office and put Labor’s Mark McGowan, who this morning had to be prompted by a media aid to remember if he had any hobbies, in the top job.
McGowan, who has been opposition leader since 2012, the member for Rockingham since 1996, was minister for the South West in the Gallop government, and once won an award for bravery for pulling a man out of a burning car, has been ahead in the polls almost since the 2012 election.
He will need to secure at least a 10% swing toward Labor to get the 10 seats needed to secure a majority in the lower house. Exit polls are reportedly showing a 12% swing.
The message of the final days of the campaign has been that voters are tired of the premier, Colin Barnett, who is now Australia’s longest-serving leader, and also that voters are punishing the Liberal party for a preference deal with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
The seats to keep an eye on as the results filter through tonight are the inner-city seats of Perth, Mt Lawley and Bicton, held by the Liberal party on margins of 2.6%, 8.9% and 10% respectively, and the outer suburban seats of Southern River and Wanneroo, all of which could go to Labor.
Bunbury, in the state’s south-west, is likely to go because John Castrilli (a lovely man and the first politician I ever interviewed as a cadet journo, incidentally) is retiring, and senior Barnett government figures Joe Francis and Mike Nahan are also in trouble in their electorates of Riverton and Jandakot, which both won easily on inflated margins in the 2012 election.
Finally, keep an eye up north at Pilbara, the seat held by the Nationals WA leader, Brendon Grylls. Grylls has a strong personal vote, but it is a traditionally Labor-held seat and a statewide swing, combined with a targeted campaign by the mining industry against his proposed mining tax, could see it gone too.
Grab some snacks, we could be here for a while.
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