It ended before it had really begun. On Sunday, the former defence minister Stephen Smith held a press conference to end two years of speculation and declare that he would challenge incumbent West Australian state Labor leader Mark McGowan for the role of opposition leader, if the party would have him. And on Monday, the party – at least, those members currently serving in the shadow cabinet – declared they would not have him.
Smith has said his decision to run would depend on the support of the state parliamentary Labor party, which has a meeting scheduled in Perth for 10am on Tuesday. But he has already all but declared a loss, saying that a statement from the shadow cabinet expressing “unanimous” support for McGowan “makes a comparable decision by the state parliamentary Labor party … inevitable.”
Twenty one of WA’s 32 state Labor MPs are in the shadow cabinet and supported the motion of confidence in McGowan, which also called on Smith to “withdraw immediately.”
Smith is reckoned to have between six and eight supporters in the parliament, although the motion on Monday suggests his alleged supporters on the frontbench are not prepared to back him.
So why challenge?
Smith has been touted as a potential leader for the WA Labor party since his retirement from federal parliament in August 2013. The 60-year-old, who was a strong supporter of the former prime minister Julia Gillard, had served as member for Perth for 10 years but announced he would not seek re-election once Kevin Rudd retook the leadership.
Until last week, the leadership rumblings appeared less about his own leadership ambitions than widespread concern in the party that McGowan, while generally regarded as decent and hardworking, was not sufficiently appealing.
The oft-touted contenders for the leadership within existing party ranks, Ben Wyatt, cousin of federal Coalition frontbencher Ken, and Rita Saffioti, have both declared support for McGowan.
The 48-year-old was elected to the leadership following the resignation of Eric Ripper in January 2012 and led the party to the 2013 election, scoring points with policies like Metronet, a $3.8b plan to expand the suburban rail network, before ultimately losing to Colin Barnett.
Then, in January, a Newspoll found Labor had 42% of the primary vote, putting it in a winning position for the first time since it lost government in 2008. Before then, the highest primary vote recorded under McGowan’s leadership was 35%.
On Monday, Smith told the ABC: “No one believed the 42 per cent Newspoll figure.”
“The last time Labor had a primary vote of 42 at state or federal level in Western Australia, Bob Hawke was prime minister,” he said.
Labor needs a 10% swing, and 10 more lower house seats, to win the election.
Smith said Labor MPs approached him to run because “they are not confident that he can win 10 seats on a 10% swing and therefore form a government which is so vital to the future of WA”.
It is unclear whether Smith would be more successful than McGowan. Both men are technocrats known for their steady hand and Smith, while well-respected, is not known for being especially charismatic.
As political commentator Peter van Onselen remarked: “The main agitator for Stephen Smith says the current leader isn’t ‘flamboyant’ enough. So he’s agitating for Stephen ‘flamboyant’ Smith?!”
Does Labor need a new leader to win?
The Barnett government is already on its way to losing the 2017 election, Edith Cowan University honorary professor of politics Harry Philips told Guardian Australia.
Spiralling state debt, which in the mid-year budget update in December had reached $39b and the further downgrading of the state’s credit rating from AA1 to AA2 last month have combined to take the gloss of the government. Add to that a different sort of leadership issue: the premier, Colin Barnett, reportedly plans to stay on as premier, if he wins the 2017 election, just long enough to see football played at his new stadium.
There is an argument, Philips said, for Labor staying out of the way while support for the government deflates.
“I think that fatigue [with the Barnett government] is present, but these people who are agitating for change don’t believe that the other side of the equation, that Labor can still take the government,” he said.
Philips said the two main arguments against each contender – that McGowan doesn’t look like a premier and Smith is not in parliament – are bunkum.
If Smith did get the party’s support the expectation was that he would mimic the former Queensland premier Campbell Newman in standing for a safe seat and campaigning while outside parliament.
But even that is not technically necessary, Philips said.
“According to the West Australian constitution there’s a requirement for one member to be a member of the Legislative Council, there’s no requirement for a member or the premier to be a member of the parliament,” he said. “As a WA citizen, I could be a minister tomorrow if they thought i was satisfactory.”
Of greater concern was Smith’s ability to perform in a scrum about education and transport, portfolios notably scrappier than his former federal responsibilities of foreign affairs, trade, and defence.
“If you are well briefed [in foreign affairs], you can really look good,” Philips said. “The domestic scene is a lot harder.”
