The West End is on course for its its weakest growth in peak Christmas trading since the pandemic as nervous shoppers rein in their spending amid fears about the economy, a key report warned today.
In its closely watched annual Christmas forecast, business group New West End Company (NWEC) said it expected spending to rise just 1.3% to £1.7 billion in November and December. With inflation currently at 3.8% that represents a significant fall in spending in real terms.
But retailers say they have not been helped by the late date for the Budget on November 26 or stubbornly high inflation which has gnawed away at consumers confidence to spend big.
NWEC’s chief executive Dee Corsi said: “The West End is an iconic destination all year round, but it becomes truly exceptional during the festive season. Our sales forecast reflects its resilience as a flagship destination, backed up by on-street surveys which reveal the depth of loyalty and affection visitors have for the West End. That said, it is clear that consumers are still feeling the pinch and, whilst the West End’s appeal to visitors is enduring, growth is stalling. “
NWEC represents more than 600 traders in and around Oxford Street, Regent Street, Bond Street and Mayfair.
Growth in spending by foreign visitors is expected to be stronger than that for shoppers from the UK. International sales are forecast to rise 1.9% while domestic spending is expected to increase by a more modest 0.9%.
Flight bookings to London for November and December are currently tracking 2.8% higher than 2024, driven, in part, by an increase in planned visits by high-spending tourists from countries including the United Arab Emirates, which are up 21.7%, Switzerland (14.7%), and Qatar (5.4%).
NWEC said its survey found that visitor ‘satisfaction’ and ‘loyalty’ are up year-on-year. It also pointed out the large number of store openings in 2025 including the long-awaited launch of IKEA’s city centre destination at Oxford Circus; new flagships for Space NK, Rolex and Michael Kors; the return of Topshop with a pop-up in Liberty;; and the opening of the Jamie Oliver Cookery School in John Lewis.
Corsi called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to do more in her Budget next month to “supercharge the UK’s appeal to tourists, boost domestic consumer confidence, and back British businesses, during the most important trading period of the year.”
She added: “Bold, targeted growth measures, such as exempting retail, leisure and hospitality operators from a ‘super tax’ business rates multiplier, are exactly what we need.”
Howard Dawber, Deputy Mayor for Business and Growth said: “The West End is a renowned shopping, leisure, and tourist destination and lights up during the festive season as people travel from around the world to spend time in the capital.
“The West End is vitally important to the UK, driving investment and opportunity in the city as well as providing Londoners with jobs in the retail, hospitality and creative sectors.
“The Mayor and I are working closely with the Government, Westminster City Council, local businesses, and New West End Company to boost visitor numbers to the West End across the festive period as we continue supporting our businesses to grow the UK economy and create a better and more prosperous London for everyone.”
