The initial trends of counting for the West Bengal Assembly election indicate that the Trinamool Congress is likely to edge past the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and form the government for a third consecutive term. If there are no major changes in the trends, Mamata Banerjee will be Chief Minister again.
Trends for about 283 of the 294 seats indicate that the State’s ruling Trinamool Congress is leading in 199 seats and the BJP is ahead in 79 seats. Another trend to be noted is that the Samyukta Morcha, an alliance of the Left Front and Congress, has failed to make a dent. A Congress candidate is leading in only one of the 278 seats.
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In terms of vote share, the Trinamool Congress appeared to be far ahead securing almost 48.5 % votes and the BJP a distant second with 37.4 % votes.
Not only does the Trinamool Congress appears to be holding on to its bastions in south Bengal but appears to have done well in areas where the BJP had prospered in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll such as Jhargram, Hooghly and Paschim Bardhaman.
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Out of 11 seats in Kolkata, the Trinamool Congress was ahead in 10 seats. In districts like Nadia and Hooghly, where the BJP had estimated that it would perform well, the TMC appears to have upset their calculations.
In districts such as Malda and Murshidabad where the Congress and the Left had won considerable seats in the 2016 Assembly poll, the Trinamool Congress is leading in a majority of seats. The Trinamool Congress campaign targeting women voters and emphasis on welfare schemes have reaped dividends for the State’s ruling party. Along with schemes, the Trinamool Congress's organisational strength at the grass root level has proved to be an advantage.
Mamata’s charisma
The trends also indicate that Ms. Banerjee charisma’s and popularity have trumped the high voltage campaign of the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah were at the forefront of the BJP campaign.
The trends of the counting indicate that those who left the Trinamool Congress and who were fielded by the BJP have not done well, even though in Nandigram Suvendu Adhikari was leading over Ms. Banerjee.
The ruling party’s slogan of Joy Bangla (Hail Bengal) and Bangla Nijer Meyekei Chai (Bengal wants its own daughter) have struck a chord with the people against the BJP’s Jai Shri Ram and Asol Paribartan (Real change) cry.
