Australia has a minority government as Kerryn Phelps takes Wentworth
Prime minister Scott Morrison has a minority government and the crossbench has a new MP after Kerryn Phelps trounced the Liberals 54-46 with half the vote counted.
I am one who thinks hung parliaments can work. Indeed forcing a government to negotiate across the aisle can improve legislation. We all remember John Howard’s clear run through the Senate with Workchoices. Sometimes a little constructive criticism can save a government from itself. Julia Gillard managed to steer some pretty big legislation through a hung parliament with the help of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott and the Greens, including Gonski, national broadband network and the carbon price. It can work. But you have to negotiate. If you don’t, you don’t get a lot done. You also need a united team behind you on policy, otherwise it can be like mustering cats.
So that is Morrison’s problem going into a hung parliament. His team are disunited on fundamental policy issues, not least of which is climate and energy – the very thing Wentworth said it wanted resolved.
This means while minority government doesn’t change things immediately for Morrison, it acts to make the parliament a little less stable because of the Coalition’s disunity. Government MPs can leverage to greater effect, expect to see rebels out there more often. The Nationals will be restless, especially if the nervous nellies consider their options under Barnaby Joyce.
Still, for a loss-of-confidence vote, Labor would have to convince independents like Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter to remove their support for the Morrison government on the question of confidence. We could expect Labor to test that next week presumably. Even if the Coalition does not lose confidence, expect Labor to pull more procedural swifties to embarrass the government as they are generally sharper at house procedure that the Coalition. Queensland MP Bob Katter might have to turn up in the chamber more often.
Meanwhile, would-be independents across the country will be considering their options in hitherto safe seats of all shades. It really is an exciting time to be alive in Australian politics and though the man who coined the phrase has left the building, his legacy lives on.
Thanks to my brains trust, Katharine Murphy, Anne Davies and Merran Hitchick. Amy Remeikis and Mike Bowers will be back with you for the sitting week. It was a pleasure to see you all again – might I say you are looking well.
See you again soon.
Goodnight.
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Katharine Murphy has filed her wrap:
So now what can we expect in the week to come? Tears, bed-wetting, general mayhem?
I would say all of the above. Given the speed of the result, I have yet to get to Barnaby Joyce, the crimson threat hanging over the head of the National party leader Michael McCormack.
Given the swing of more than 20% away from the government, there will be a lot of government MPs suffering sleepless nights in coming months.
Back in the 1990s, we used to call marginal seats those held with less than 5%.
During the citizenship balls-up, John Alexander fought a byelection at the end of 2017 with a margin of 9.7% and he just held onto the seat.
Now the government has suffered a swing of more than 20%. Does that make pretty much every seat in the House marginal?
It certainly does for those LNP MPs, particularly in Queensland where there are many very, very marginal seats, including for those MPs who sit in the National party room. They are the ones eyeing off the prospect of Barnaby Joyce blustering his way back to the leadership after only eight months in the sin bin.
The Nationals will hold their regular party room meeting at the beginning of this week, as they normally do in a sitting week. But it will be a fraught time for McCormack, as Barnaby pushes on, hoping for redemption.
In my opinion, they would be mad to return to Joyce, a former agriculture minister who presided over no drought policy, climate change denial on behalf of a farming constituency and a live export debacle, while badly factionalising a formerly solid National party room and bringing the party name into disrepute.
A Joyce 2.0-led National party would turn off the base, not just rural women but men too. It would also double down on the Liberals’ problems. But the Libs can hardly point the finger at the Nats for causing instability.
A Joyce return cannot be discounted. And if he does, expect to see more rural women standing as independents.
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As it happens, the reason I stepped away from this blog a year ago was to write a book called Rusted Off, about what makes rural people truly cranky about Australian politics. But tonight Wentworth has shown us that political disappointment is something that can unite city and country alike.
Country seats have been rusted on to Coalition parties for the longest time but rural and regional voters are looking for other options. They have put Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie (Tassie metro seats share much of the regional attributes) and Rebekha Sharkie on the crossbench already. Those MPs have managed to unite voters across the spectrum on a pretty centrist policy agenda. They have also energised volunteers from across the spectrum, often many who have not been involved in major political parties before.
I reckon after this result, that #RustedOff vote has now spread to the city. Historically, the diligent country independent has increased their margin and dig in until they are ready to retire. I would expect Phelps will replicate this phenomenon, barring major stuff ups.
Look south for the upcoming Victorian election and you will see many women independents running, a lot of them in rural and regional seats. Two of them, Tammy Atkins (Ovens Valley candidate) and Jacqui Hawkins (Benambra) are former McGowan campaign workers. Jenny O’Connor, Indigo Shire mayor is also running in Benambra. Michelle Dunscombe is running in Eildon. Ali Cupper is running in Mildura. These are just some of the names.
Expect this phenomenon to continue at the NSW state election in March next year and our next federal election, whenever that may be. The disruption will continue as long as the major parties don’t heed the lessons. Based on Morrison’s speech tonight, I think people will be organising campaigns as we blog.
The view from Murpharoo
As smashings go, Saturday night’s result in Wentworth is entirely comprehensive.
Scott Morrison begged voters in Wentworth not to push his government into minority as part of venting their anger about the conservative-led coup against Malcolm Turnbull, and they turned their backs on him. In droves.
On current indications, Kerry Phelps will get a higher primary vote than the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma.
Tonight’s result – historic by any measure – is a repudiation of the Liberals, their current policy direction, and the unhinged coup culture in Canberra.
It is a devastating night for the Liberals and there are messages here beyond the frustration of a single electorate in a single city.
Australians, with this result, are telling the political class in Canberra that they want a different style of politics, a politics that comes from the community and serves the community. What we are watching tonight is nothing short of a revolution.
So - genuine question - what is the message Scott Morrison heard from the byelection #WentworthByElection #Wentworth
— Lenore Taylor (@lenoretaylor) October 20, 2018
Probably the purplest North Bondi Surf Club has ever been. Sounds pretty rowdy in there too ... #WenthworthByelection #auspol @gabriellechan pic.twitter.com/kxu8tCaR7F
— Nikki Marshall (@MarshallNikki) October 20, 2018
A couple of thoughts. Sharma’s speech was so much more humble than Scott Morrison, who clearly didn’t totally grasp that the government lost.
The short take from Sharma was: I heard you and I understand you, the Wentworth voters, repudiated me.
Morrison’s message was: We will keep steamrolling on. No pausing, no taking stock.
Or as Morrison said:
While tonight is not an unexpected outcome for us, they have looked at Canberra and the Liberal party has paid a big price tonight for the events of several months ago. But as a party, we will continue to rise again …
Compare that with Sharma’s speech below.
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Sharma again:
This is the first time I’ve ever run for elected office, as well, and the first time I’ve run a campaign, and it has been a little bruising, no doubt about it, and it certainly has had some surprises, too. It has also been, though, a very humbling and enlightening experience and I’m sorry I wasn’t able to earn the trust of the voters of Wentworth tonight, but I have deeply enjoyed getting a window into their lives and a window into their concerns and a window into the priorities of literally thousands of Australians.
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Scott Morrison exits stage left.
Josh Frydenberg introduces Dave Sharma.
Sharma speaks.
If this is what a loss looks like, I can only imagine what a victory must feel like … Tonight’s result has been over a little sooner than I expected. I’m certainly glad I kept my day job.
He pays tribute to Phelps, and the other candidates.
Dave Sharma also pays tribute to Malcolm Turnbull, the former MP and prime minister. (Something Scott Morrison did not do.)
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Scott Morrison is on a roll. The crowd does the back-up singing.
It’s what we believe. We believe in a fair go for those who have a go. We believe that the best form of welfare is a job.
Yeah!
We believe it is every Australians’ duty to make a contribution and not take a contribution.
Yeah!
And we believe this: You don’t raise people up by bringing others down.
Yeah!
Let me tell you who doesn’t believe those things: The Labor party.
Shame!
Bill Shorten doesn’t believe those things.
Shame!
My message to Bill Shorten is you will never lead a country that you want to divide.
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Morrison: leadership requires you to turn upon the tough days and the good days
I will come to Scott Morrison now. The Liberal supporters are getting excited.
We love you, ScoMo!
Josh Frydenberg is introducing Morrison, suggesting he might not be able to stay long because he has to get to the Invictus Games opening.
Morrison takes the blame, saying it was a result on the government, not Dave Sharma.
When you attract the quality, the crystal quality of a man like Dave Sharma, you know your party is heading in the right direction.
And I know this is a tough day, but leadership requires you to turn up on the tough days and the good days, and that’s what you will always get from me as the leader of the Liberal party.
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Phelps channels the zeitgeist:
People have been concerned about the direction of government for a very long time and we’ve seen a lack of decency, a lack of integrity and we have to look at what the House of Representatives is about, it is about representing the people and the people have spoken loud and clear.
Phelps urges independents across the country
The independent MP-elect talks to young people and aspiring independents.
I would like to say any young people, any women, any aspiring independents out there, if you are thinking of running for parliament or running for public office: yes, it can be tough, yes, the road can be hard, but it is so worthwhile that we have the right people stepping up to represent Australia.
I’m so heartened by all of the young people who volunteered in this campaign, people who shared the vision, people as young as 13 and 14 years old who have been worry – who have been learning about democracy at school, who have been learning about the political system at school and they have wanted to play a part in it, not to learn about it from a textbook, from a distance, but to roll their sleeves out, come onto the polling stations with their parents, talk to people, hand out flyers and really understand what the Australian democratic process is all about at grassroots level.
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Phelps laughs and carries on ... thanking her campaign team, her wife, Jackie, her children.
And so many other people to thank, for the hard work and dedication, to the people who volunteered to man the polling booths, to man the prepolls, to door-knock with me, to go to railway stations, to make phone calls to your friends – you have made this happen. Just a few short weeks ago I was told this was an impossible task and if we actually managed to win the seat of Wentworth, that it would be a miracle. It was said if we won the seat of Wentworth, it would make history, and, my friends, we have made history.
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First of all, thank you for the people of Warringah err …
Kerryn Phelps is overcome and fluffs her thanks.
First of all, thank you for the people of Warringah – of Wentworth
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Still waiting for Kerryn Phelps to stop dancing …
How many days until Australia has a new Prime Minister? #auspol #WentworthVotes...….. pic.twitter.com/s2oQjMD4KZ
— Gary Fallon (@GaryFallon2) October 20, 2018
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We need to be governing from the sensible centre, says Liberal MP
Trent Zimmerman, North Sydney Liberal MP:
It is obviously a devastating night for the Liberal party, and our job is to learn a message that voters in Wentworth have sent us because this is not a uniquely Wentworth message, particularly in relation to the stability and leadership that all Australians want us to provide. I think Scott Morrison has made a good start in that respect, but we really do have to show that we are learning the lesson and also the lesson that we need to be governing from the sensible centre and I know that’s very much on Scott’s mind as well.
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Blog friend Matt Hatter has reconstructed events down there is the Double Bay Liberal event.
Prime Minister 🧢 reflects on how many Independent MP's the government now requires to pass contested legislation in the House of Representatives. #WentworthVotes @gabriellechan pic.twitter.com/qa31jMEWae
— The Matt Hatter (@hazmattsuit) October 20, 2018
Kerryn Phelps has entered the building.
She is surrounded by a sea of purple t-shirts.
Labor’s Tim Murray is conceding defeat and has told supporters that he has rung Kerryn Phelps to congratulate her. There are cheers.
This is the beginning of the end of the Morrison government.
YASSSSSSSS!!! Thank god for @drkerrynphelps Jackie and Gabi Stricker Phelps I am sooooo happy for you and for #Wentworth and for the nation ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😍😍😍😍😍👏👏👏🙌🙌🙌 🎉 woohoo!!!
— Magda Szubanski (@MagdaSzubanski) October 20, 2018
There’s absolute jubilation at the Phelps party at North Bondi surf club. People are crying and hugging as they wait for the woman of the moment.
Current projections have Phelps 56, Liberals 44 on a two party preferred basis
With only 6.7% of the votes counted, the Australian Electoral Commission is projecting a two party preferred win to Phelps 56 to 44. The swing seems pretty consistent across the booths. Labor’s vote is down 7.5% and the Greens is down 6.4%.
A tale of two parties.
Deputy leader Tanya Plibersek says Scott Morrison does not represent the values of voters in Wentworth.
The reason this has happened is because ScottMorrison doesn’t represent the values of the voters of Wentworth and I think he’s out of step with mainstream Australia. His lack of action on climate change. Take a lump of coal into parliament. The fact that he restored funding to Catholic and independent schools, but not public schools, the continued cuts to healthcare, all of these things smack of a government that is run by the hard right of the Liberal Party and that’s not mainstream. That’s not what middle Australia wants.
In fact independent campaigners across the country are excited.
Indi MP Cathy McGowan’s mob are excited.
Indi brains trust trio (with an accumulated 192 years of self assessed wisdom, experience and knowledge) gather for bbq, a beer or two and opinions about #Wentworthvotes. Ask us a question, we know everyone! @gabriellechan @greenbus pic.twitter.com/0IBwDRnM0p
— Denis Ginnivan (@dginnivan) October 20, 2018
The result has got some people in Warringah pretty excited. I wonder where Tony Abbott is tonight?
Look, we don't want to get too cocky over this side of the harbour, but srsly, if you refuse to listen to the voices of the people especially in regard to climate change, you will be punished. Wentworth one day, #Warringah the next. #WentworthVotes #auspol #RenewWarringah
— Voices of Warringah (@warringahvoices) October 20, 2018
Welcome to a hung parliament 2018
OK so now think about the numbers in the House.
Kerryn Phelps will join Cathy McGowan, Rebekha Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie, Adam Bandt, Bob Katter and National MP Kevin Hogan who sits on the crossbench due to the leadership spill but still votes for the Coalition.
The Liberal and National party now has 74 seats in the house. In a house of 150 members, the Coalition has entered hung parliament territory.
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Labor’s Linda Burney suggests on ABC that Australia should be heading for a general election.
This is an unprecedented result for the Liberal party, and I think Mr Morrison needs to think about calling a general election. This is such a monumental wipe-out in one of the safest Liberal seats in the country.
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Incredible result and proud of the people of Wentworth. A hearty congratulations to @drkerrynphelps who fought a great campaign. A great day for Australian democracy.
— Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull) October 20, 2018
It is 7:21pm on the 20th of October 2018 and the current status of the Federal government is... #WentworthVotes @gabriellechan pic.twitter.com/v7vEMgmK44
— The Matt Hatter (@hazmattsuit) October 20, 2018
Antony Green calls Kerryn Phelps the winner of the Wentworth byelection
Eight booths have now returned, where the swing against Liberals is 24.7%.
Antony Green:
One-fifth of the polling places and they are all showing the same thing, a swing of more than 20% to the Liberal Party. Liberals projected to be under 40% by the end of the night so I think we can declare Kerryn Phelps as the winner of the Wentworth by-election against the Liberals’ Dave Sharma.
It is 7.18pm.
Readers will recall former minister Craig Laundy was like Simon of Cyrene, by the side of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull as he strode to his political death in the party room eight weeks ago.
He would be in close contact with Turnbull, who was last seen in New York. Laundy is on Sky tonight.
If we do lose this seat tonight one of the interesting things we are going to see is how quickly those that were responsible (for the leadership challenge) try to turn it to: ‘It’s Malcolm’s fault, not what we did’.
I argued all the way through for stability and loyalty and came up short but it’s our job now and I think there is an internal struggle within the party sadly about where we go going forward.
Laundy wants the party to resist the drag to the right.
I don’t think that has played well in Wentworth.
Laundy said Turnbull should not be criticised for failing to campaign in Wentworth.
His strong thought was the people of Wentworth would have seen that as an absolute joke. He knew if he stayed in town it would have been a circus and for his own well-being he had to get out and get away.
Election analyst Antony Green reckons on the current swing, he will call it in a few minutes - for Phelps. Sharma is on 37.7% primaries, below that magic 40% we mentioned earlier. Phelps is on 35.5% on primaries alone.
Swing against Libs up to 30% with three booths in
The Darlinghurst booth has come in, making three booths, and the swing against the Liberals has gone up to 30% – equal to the swing in Wagga that unseated the Liberal party in favour of Independent Joe McGirr. Still early, still only three booths, but the votes are going straight to Phelps. At 2.49%, the informal vote appears small. Not looking great for the government. Voters appear to be very single-minded.
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The Vaucluse booth has been added to Double Bay East and the swing away from the Liberal candidate is 23%, pretty much all towards Phelps. You would not expect Labor to poll in those two booths. Vaucluse is heart heart heartland Liberal. Or as Antony Green calls it, the barrister end of the electorate.
Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman has been frank about the anger in Wentworth.
Asked about the real turning point in Wentworth, Zimmerman says it was the removal of Turnbull as PM.
Well, I think the turning point was when Malcolm Turnbull was removed as prime minister and I think what we’re seeing tonight is a reflection of the anger in the broader community, but particularly in his own seat, particular affection, his own seat, on what happened on that mad week two months ago, so I think it has been a struggle since day one because of that fact.
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First numbers, just 355 votes counted at Double Bay east.
#wentworthvotes 0.3% counted
— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) October 20, 2018
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
LIB 47.7 (-14.6)
ALP 8.7 (-9.1)
IND 29.5 (+29.5)
GRN 8.4 (-6.5)
OTH 5.8 (+0.6)
Full results at https://t.co/ngXDINz7j5 #auspol
It’s been clear from reporting and also the exit polling thus far that the treatment of Malcolm Turnbull and the leadership change was a big factor driving the protest vote in Wentworth.
North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman is on the panel for the ABC and admits the the idea of major party #stability has been damaged by a decade of leadership changes.
I think we do need to look at that and there are a couple of things we need to look at doing. Effectively having a cooling-off period after a spill motion has been considered by the party room. I firmly believe if my colleagues had gone back to their electorates outside that bubble that Canberra can be and spoken to their voters, they would have known how angry voters were across the country. That yet again, we were having another leadership change. And it is a problem, I think, both parties face, both Liberal and Labor, because our great strength is meant to be offering stability and both have under cut their value proposition over the last decade.
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Labor’s candidate, Tim Murray, was the only one of the three favourites who could cast a vote for himself. Both Sharma and Phelps live outside the electorate. Sharma is way outside, on the north shore, though he has promised to move in if he wins. Phelps lives just a smidge outside the electorate boundary.
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Wentworth Votes.
6pm in #WentworthVotes a little earlier than the 4.30 call...
— John Rhys Jones (@john_rhysjones) October 20, 2018
Wonder how the weather's going in #WenthworthVotes ? pic.twitter.com/PKK6beVpcs
Look who @drkerrynphelps found at Bondi #HandsOffOurABC #WentworthVotes pic.twitter.com/dVuCuZify8
— kerrynforwentworth (@kerrynwentworth) October 20, 2018
Something to bear in mind before the numbers start rolling in.
Just a quick guide about numbers. Insiders on this campaign says Dave Sharma needs a primary vote of 40% or north of that to get home tonight. The Kerryn Phelps camp is hoping for a primary vote north of 25%.
It would not be an Australian election without this photo.
Still no numbers on the AEC website but note the AEC is doing a preference split between Dave Sharma and Kerryn Phelps, instead of the usual Liberal Labor split. For obvious reasons.
Women independents have rallied for Kerryn Phelps today on social media. If she wins, she will join Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the crossbenches. Those two MPs were plugging for her today.
Be the change you want to see #WentworthVotes. If not you, who? If not now, when? @MakeMayoMatter did it. Now for @drkerrynphelps
— Cathy McGowan (@Indigocathy) October 20, 2018
Australia is SICK & TIRED of this kind of dirty politics. #WentworthVotes you are smarter than this. A cross-bench with @drkerrynphelps will make for a better parliament. Best chance of removing children from #Nauru & ensuring Govt act on climate change. @Indigocathy #auspol pic.twitter.com/awAbU9eHnk
— Rebekha Sharkie MP (@MakeMayoMatter) October 19, 2018
While Wentworth is clearly Liberal heartland – given it has never been held by a Labor MP – it is worth remembering the margin was much lower before Malcolm Turnbull held the seat. So while a 17.7% margin may seem a big hill for Kerryn Phelps to climb, notionally it may not be quite that steep.
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You can see the worry on Dave Sharma’s face.
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There’s been much talk about Wentworth’s so called Jewish vote.
The electorate has more than 18,000 Jews according to the 2016 census – 12.5% – which makes it one of the largest, if not the largest, Jewish community in Australia. There are at least six synagogues and several Jewish schools.
But the community is diverse, just like any other.
The modern orthodox Central synagogue in Bondi, the largest in Sydney, is presided over by Rabbi Levi Wolff whose endorsement has been appearing on leaflets from the Liberals’ candidate Dave Sharma.
Sharma was Australia’s ambassador to Israel at age 37, and since returning to Australia has written opinion articles that support recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel before a two-state solution is agreed.
Wolff enthusiastically welcomed prime minister Scott Morrison’s announcement last week that the government would review Australia’s policy and might follow the US in relocating the embassy to Israel.
But others have expressed cynicism about the review, and whether it will disappear as fast as the polling places in Wentworth will.
Its also a community that cares about a wide range of social issues.
Rabbi Jeffrey Kamins at the liberal Emanuel Synagogue in Woollahra hasn’t commented on the government’s announcement but earlier in the campaign wrote to his congregation saying that climate change was “an important moral issue” and they should consider in this election.
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While we could be seeing a massive voter disruption in this blue ribbon Liberal seat, the weather gods are also about to send a major dump from the heavens. The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
With the appropriate cautions for exit polling (“from raw unweighted data and should be considered as indicative only”), the Australia Institute has released the following interim results of an exit poll of 875 respondents. This is directly from its report:
Kerryn Phelps has a strong primary vote and has attracted many former Liberal voters, as well people who had voted for Labor and the Greens in 2016
Liberal vote has dropped significantly and preferences are flowing strongly to Phelps from ALP and Green voters
Climate change and replacing coal with renewable energy is the biggest single issue motivating voters in Wentworth – 78% of voters say it had at least some influence on their vote. Half (47%) said it had a lot of influence on their vote and 33% name it as the most important issue.
Climate and coal was more important than any other issue to Phelps voters, with 39% of them saying it was their primary concern.
Among ex-Liberal voters who have now voted for Phelps, climate change was the second-biggest issue (27%) behind Turnbull’s toppling (44%), but 80% of those voters said climate change and getting out of coal had at least some influence on how they voted.
Remember we have yet to see the raw numbers all up. Just putting it out there.
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In the event of a close result, 10% of votes in the mail
The Australian Electoral Commission reports that there had been 18,700 pre-poll votes in the Wentworth byelection by Friday afternoon, and 12,500 people had applied for a postal vote. All up there are about 103,000 registered voters in the seat.
Roughly 80% to 90% of the postal applications are likely to result in actual postal votes, the AEC says. So that means around 10% of the vote in Wentworth is in the mail, so to speak. The postals must be received within 13 days of today.
The pre-poll votes will be counted tonight and will be some of the biggest results to flow into the AEC’s tally room.
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Apropos the Liberal nerves, newly liberated backbencher Craig Laundy has been handing out how-to-vote cards in Wentworth.
Have been amazed at how many people not taking "how to vote" sheets. Well above 50% I reckon #wentworthvotes #auspol
— Craig Laundy (@LaundyCraigMP) October 19, 2018
It’s a hard sell for the Coalition.
From Anne Davies, who has been kicking around the electorate of Wentworth, in Sydney’s leafy eastern suburbs.
A few facts about Wentworth, aka God’s own electorate.
Bloke pulls up at a polling booth in a black BMW X5, gets out & and puts up a @GetUp sign ..... #onlyinwentorth #wentworthvotes #auspol
— Craig Laundy (@LaundyCraigMP) October 19, 2018
It stretches from South Dowling Street, Surry Hills, in the west to the coast in the east and takes in some of Sydney’s wealthiest harbourside suburbs: Elizabeth Bay, Darling Point, Double Bay, Point Piper and Vaucluse. A little inland are Woollahra and Bellevue Hill, favoured by Australia’s establishment wealth.
Taxable incomes average $112,607 across the electorate, the highest of any seat according to analysis of tax data by the Australia Institute in 2016. They top $200,000 on average in suburbs like Point Piper.
But that’s only part of the story. Wentworth has large amounts of medium and high-density apartments. More than 45% of people are renting.
It has areas that are more inner city – Paddington and small parts of Darlinghurst, while Bondi Junction now has thousands of high rise apartments.
Along the coast there is famous Bondi Beach, home to many artists, actors and musicians; Tamarama and Bronte and half of Clovelly.
The beachside suburbs have rapidly gentrified over the two decades, but are still home to longtime residents and families with children.
So Wentworth is far from homogenous and this will mean there could be sharp swings as particular booths report.
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Strap yourself in, sharp turns ahead on a short runway
Good evening friends,
Yes, I have returned for a guest appearance on #PoliticsLive and I can’t tell you how glad I am to be here as the sun sets on the Wentworth poll.
Here we are, in this very position because of self-sabotage of the Liberal party: removing the former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull for no clear reason, distracted by a self-serving rump led by Tony Abbott, making crazy deep globally significant policy decisions like moving the Israel embassy on the run, ignoring decisions on energy and climate change in the face of the international reports even as that very issue tops the charts for Wentworth and much of the rest of the nation.
For background on the truly terrible Coalition campaign in Wentworth, you must read Katharine Murphy’s column this morning.
Once you have read that piece, you will know senior Liberals are concerned that the prime minister needed more runway. That is, so he and the government can get a go on. I’m not sure the runway is the problem, just quietly.
That is because there are some significant factors in this byelection combining for a perfect storm.
- a former sitting MP and PM Turnbull who was locally popular and built a healthy personal margin of 17.7% on a two-party-preferred basis;
- a high-profile local independent Phelps, with experience and public profile in the recent marriage equality campaign, with standing as a local doctor;
- a government on the nose generally, increasing the protest vote factor
- a high stakes byelection that could send the Coalition government into a hung parliament – tailormade for sending a message to government, less than a year from a general election;
- a restless and divided Coalition partner in the National party, seriously considering a controversial return to former leader Barnaby Joyce in the coming week.
What could go wrong?
Of course we will also have the actual results – the numbers – and as they come in and I’m expecting some exit polling any minute now. Katharine Murphy is by my side, Anne Davies is on the ground in Wentworth and data editor Nick Evershed is overseeing the numbers.
At the moment, you will have to take to Twitter to join the conversation so tweet me @gabriellechan or on Facebook. We will have the comments open shortly.
Up up and away.
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