At last, Jeremy Corbyn comes out with a whole speech calling for Labour people to vote in. Warts and all, maybe. But then not many UK politicians, right or left, will make speeches that airbrush out the EU’s warty face, as each sees it.
Good news too that Unison, last of the big unions to declare, has come out unequivocally and passionately to campaign for in, when there was a fear it might fence-sit. Instead, a consultation with its members in the NHS local government, education and other public sectors ended with an overwhelming decision among its 1.3, mainly female workers to back in.
“When the chips are down, and exit is a real possibility” says Unison’s leader, Dave Prentis, public services will be “much better off in than out”. His public workers “bore the brunt of the last economic downturn, and are still paying the price. The last thing anyone wants is another recession where jobs, living standards and public services are back on the line.” He warns what a Brexit UK government would do to hard-won employment rights: “Unscrupulous employers would have a field day.”
All this looks like a no-brainer to diehard Europhiles. Why wouldn’t Labour and the unions throw their weight behind in? Just look at the outers and shudder at their nasty visions of a little England free of “red tape”, “’elf and safety” regulations, “employment burdens” and “human rights”. Just look at the Brexit climate change deniers’ extreme obsessions.
But it’s not that easy. Why would the left want to stand shoulder to shoulder with Cameron and Osborne? To suggest that Ukip-minded Gove, Boris, Duncan Smith, Lawson, Grayling and the rest of this unappealing rogues’ gallery would form an even worse government appears to paint the prime minister and the chancellor as moderates. But we know they’re not. They are extremist architects of a plan to shrink the state permanently that goes far beyond anything Margaret Thatcher dared consider. They are scythe-wielding mowers-down of the welfare state – crippling the NHS and social care with the worst ever underfunding crisis, demolishing what’s left of social housing in the current housing bill, planning to slash £12bn more from benefits, and decimating even the police and the army, along with libraries, museums and the arts.
Why would the left want to do anything to save their skins, just as they start to look vulnerable through sheer incompetence? Their party is falling apart spectacularly, unable to check a schism Cameron had insanely thought he would assuage by calling a referendum.
Their divisions may be irreparable, whatever the result. Even the Brexiteers themselves are breaking apart, as the Grassroots Out losers say they will seek a judicial review of the decision not to designate them the official campaign, calling Vote Leave “full of lies and misrepresentations”. That’s why the temptation to just sit back and revel in rightwing disarray was so strong.
How miserable to find yourself wishing Cameron and Osborne well, worrying whether they are damaged by the Panama Papers or are likely to do anything idiotically unpopular between now and 23 June. They seem capable of endless self-harm at the moment. Will they take on the BBC with a vindictive white paper between now and the referendum? That would be folly. How odd to be praying they won’t self-destruct, but their authority looks crucial to making the case for Bremain. For Labour inners, there are myriad strange bedfellows in this campaign. Stuart Rose, our leader, anyone? Moguls, plutocrats, hedge-funding Tory donors?
But Labour and the unions swallow all that and take the right road for the country’s sake, even if the other path might have been temptingly popular, especially with most of the press. How Cameron must wish he had stood as bravely as Ed Miliband against holding a referendum, a rotten form of democracy. Ukip was there to vote for democratically in the general election. All referendums risk being swung dangerously by unpredictable events. The long-term fate of the country may be decided by last-minute temporary news: a migrant surge, an economic dip, some EU drama over a new directive or another Cameron and Osborne pratfall.
Labour is right never to stand on platforms with Tories: their reasons for staying in are different (though the broad economic case is the same). Now they need to barnstorm up and down the country, Labour figures old and new joining trade unionists in drumming up their members.
Because failure to turn out is the great danger. The Stronger In campaign launched a Talk to Gran video on Wednesday urging the young to persuade older family members that their future depends on remaining – the young, who have the most to lose from leaving.
Three leading psephologists warn in the FT of a perilous “enthusiasm gap” between in and out supporters. Professor Paul Whitely, of Essex University, and others warn that if turnout is below 55% – and turnout is a probable 5% higher among leave supporters – than Brexit is a certainty.
Fainthearted support among Labour people risks Britain sleepwalking to calamity. Can Labour and the unions shake off apathy and overcome their members’ antipathy to the Tories to get their vote out? The country’s fate rests in Labour’s hands.
