As referendum day nears we continue our daily look at your views on the campaign headlines, with a final scramble for votes well under way. Here we discuss your reactions to a speech by Jeremy Corbyn in Manchester, the relationship between bookies’ odds and polling as we attempt to get to grips with what might happen, and thoughts on the latest celebrity to tell us how they are going to vote.
Click on the links at the end of each section to get involved, or head over to our EU referendum live blog to follow the news and discussion as it happens.
1. EU referendum live: Corbyn says Labour ‘ready’ for an early election after EU vote
Jeremy Corbyn took Labour’s case for remain on the road to deliver a speech in Manchester. He talked about the economy after George Soros predicted a black Friday, and in a Q&A session addressed the perceived concerns of some of his party’s voters on free movement of labour. He also attacked Nigel Farage’s anti-migrant poster and criticised tabloid newspapers for denying the public a serious debate about immigration.
Well done to Corbyn for attacking Farage and his supporters so directly - shame we didn't see more of this from him throughout the campaign, rather than the endless anodyne waffling about workers' rights, but at least he's seizing the moment now.
After Corbyn’s speech, some of you wondered whether the remain campaign might be missing a trick. He had said “Labour has had a problem with the media being focused on the problems in the Conservative party”.
I get, to an extent, why Corbyn and Cameron don't want to share a campaigning platform. But Remain is the big loser for that. Combine Corbyn's intelligence, and ability to simplify an argument, with Cameron's passionate framing of the discussion and you'd have a pretty heavy debating tool.
Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party look like emerging from the referendum campaign with an enhanced reputation.
He has led from the front, steadfastly and consistently refusing the call to jump upon the 'but something must be done' immigration bandwagon and has refused to join in the scaremongering.
He has held firm and has told the truth.
Fair play to him!!
The lack of planning and the lack of investment in infrasucture is the responsibility of government and will not be helped by leaving the EU.
Corbyn looked to the future, and impressed many of you.
Great stuff from Corbyn. However I fear he is stepping in too late. So far his position has been pretty ambiguous but in the last week he comes up fully in support of Remain with solid arguments in contrast to Cameron's Campaign Fear... maybe he's had a slight change of heart? Hope he keeps busy for the last two day to reach as many people as possible!
Corbyn focusing quite rightly on the prospect of a Tory Brexit. He is realistic enough to know that the Tory government, for all its divisions, will not collapse in the wake of Brexit.
He probably realises too that neither he, nor any other potential Labour leader waiting in the wings for that matter, will beat the Tories in 2020, especially if by then Scotland has said bye bye.
Totally correct to demand to know which employment and social protections Priti Patel, Johnson and their business backers are so desperate to get rid of.
2. Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum?
The only thing pollsters seem to agree on is that the vote is going to be close, but this piece examines the reasons bookmakers seem a little more sure of things. There are a few nifty graphs showing spread betting predictions were more accurate than polling in the 2015 general election, and a discussion of a study which found today’s voters are more open to changing their minds than at any point in the last 35 years.
how many poor bookies do you know? they have to be right and they have to be able to stack the odds effectively. or they're out of business. so they use methods not appreciated by pollsters, like bayesian probability and taking money. pollsters must rely on belief, the belief that they are being told the truth. although pollsters have to put their money where their mouths are, the people they phone up don't. bookies, by definition, hendge their bets, it's their punters who have to put their money where their mouths are, and so are automatically more trustworthy as a result.
Your discussions focused on polling methodology, but also manipulation of figures to suit different campaigns before voters even get the chance to make their minds up.
CAREFUL: The polls and the betting markets are measuring different things. The polls are prediction of ONE voting outcome, a single snapshot. The betting markets however give you a likelihood of in/out by looking at ALL voting outcomes, a whole range of snapshots. The betting market then assigns probabilities to each outcome and gives you an overall probability for in/out.
It can be entirely consistent that the polls says 49/51 and the betting market says 30% leave and 70% remain.
The Brexiteers are extremely vocal and at times irrationally evangelical in their campaigning whereas Bremainers are more reserved. The result on Thursday could reflect this as it did in the Scottish referendum.
The irony is of course that the lower paid and less qualified/educated Brexiteers who are keenest to brexit will suffer most from the UK exiting the EU particularly in the first 3-4 years which will be disastrous. The millionaire establishment leaders of the Leave campaign will -as always- escape unscathed.
You can click the links on any of these comments to join the conversations.
The problem with this referendum is it that Brexit can be manipulated to any agenda. I doubt Leave will win, but if they did, the options of how to move forward, how to control immigration, etc, are so varied, and Brexiters are not united in what they want other than to leave.
Say Leave wins, and the only trade agreement we can get is the same as Norway and Switzerland (and some comments on here have cited these countries as good examples), complying with regulations, free movement and still paying to be in, people will probably want another referendum on whether to accept that. As we have seen these are not things that will be sorted out by elections, as this is a cross-party issue.
We have it drummed into us not to sign something unless we read it properly, so being asked to vote on something with an unknown outcome seems bizarre to me. Referendums are for gay marriage, peace agreements, gun control, a clearly defined yes or no that can't be hijacked and made to fit a cause.
Stop trying to guess the result !
it's toxic, in many ways:
- If one side is way ahead of the other, voters don't vote. Upsets happen.
- People and media turnt he election into a race: Who's ahead, who's behind.
- Rational discussion of the issues is lost.
These, and others, are recognised problems. That's why polling is banned shortly before most elections.
The gruardian and media more generally could do its bit by stopping this toxic discussion on who's ahead and what we think is going to happen.
Get back to the topic: It the UK better in the EU, or out ?
Lastly on this point, an idea ...
I'm very much in the Remain camp but have placed a £10 bet on us leaving... at least I'll get something out of it if we leave! I think that's known as hedging your bets...
3. David Beckham comes out in favour of remain
The latest high-profile figure to tell us how they are voting – and have this leapt on as an endorsement/attacked as an irrelevance (delete as appropriate) – was David Beckham. He’s for remain, saying in a Facebook post that “we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone”.
However seriously you take celebrity voices, the former England captain certainly got you talking.
It's all over, Beckham has backed remain. The only thing that can save the leave campaign is if the Telly Tubbies back BREXIT.
I rather be associated with the views of David Beckham than with the views of Farage, that's for sure.
David Beckham is super rich and a friend of Cameron - no wonder he supports Remain.
What about the working class fans who paid for his wealth, can we hear their voices?
I'm loving the Brexit response to David Beckham's announcement.
All he's done is declare his voting intention and why; he hasn't actually come round to your house and shat on your carpet - you're still free to vote any way you want so you can probably calm down (although tbh I'd prefer you didn't because it's funnier ;)
He's not claiming to be an expert on the subject - but haven't the British people "had enough of experts?"
Whether you like or hate Beckham, he is a global icon recognised around the world and has done a great deal of good for this country's image.
He grew up working class, played a working class sport, showed a tireless work ethic, represented his country for many years, and is a self-made millionaire.
He regularly gets involved with charity work, such as providing wheelchairs, UNICEF, Comic Relief, AIDS, Malaria, Help for Heroes and many more.
He does not have a degree in economics, but neither does Nigel Farage.
We’ll be back tomorrow with another roundup of what you’re talking about in the comment sections on the EU referendum. You can help inform what we report on by filling in the form below.
All of that is real "nail on head" stuff from Corbyn. Got to the crux of the matter and identified what is wrong with it.
If only he was a bit more camera-friendly.