AROUND 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the UK Government’s welfare cuts, despite Keir Starmer being forced into a partial U-turn.
The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.
Modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) said the estimate does not include any “potential positive impact” from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
MPs are expected to vote on the welfare reform bill on Tuesday at Westminster. The UK Government will be hoping it passes after offering Labour rebels a series of concessions in a bid to head off Starmer’s first potential Commons defeat since coming to power.
The major changes to its planned welfare cuts have been made to avoid a rebellion by more than 120 Labour backbenchers.
The UK Government’s original package had restricted eligibility for PIP, the main disability payment in England, and cut the health-related element of Universal Credit, saying this would save around £5 billion a year by 2030.
Now, the changes to PIP eligibility will be implemented in November 2026 and apply to new claimants only while all existing recipients of the health element of Universal Credit will have their incomes protected in real terms.
The changes will reduce the amount of money the reforms will save, adding to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ headaches as she seeks to balance the books for day-to-day spending.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall (below) will update MPs on the changes later on Monday, with the Labour leadership still braced for a substantial revolt despite the changes.
A No 10 spokesman said: “The broken welfare system we inherited is failing people every single day.
“It traps millions, it tells them the only way to get help is to declare they’ll never work again and then abandons them.
“No help, no opportunity, no dignity and we can’t accept that.
“For too long, meaningful reform to a failing system has been ducked.”
The Prime Minister is expected to continue talking to would-be rebels in the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote when the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Bill faces its first Commons test.
It comes as analysis has shown the proportion of children, adults, and people of pension age living in relative poverty has tracked lower in Scotland than the UK as a whole for two decades.
Accredited UK Government statistics show that across all age groups, Scotland has had lower levels of poverty than the UK as a whole since 2005.
