Fantasy football fans, we’ve arrived at Week 9! Another week in and we’re about halfway through the 2021 NFL season already. How time flies. QB Josh Johnson made his New York Jets debut last night during Thursday Night Football. A 2008 fifth-rounder, Johnson has bounced around the league and played for 13 teams during his pro career. The Jets didn’t ask him to do much, yet he still delivered with 317 passing yards, three scores and an INT. So are both Jets backup QBs better than Zach Wilson? Probably not long-term, but it figures with the Jets.
The real MVP was Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 172 yards and two scores with two catches for 28 yards. The second-year back (152.4 PPR points, 19.1 avg) has an open shot at becoming the fantasy RB1 now that Derrick Henry is out. Only Austin Ekeler (153.2 pts, 21.9 avg) and Najee Harris (142.2 pts, 20.3 avg) are ahead of him. One final Colts thought: How much better can Michael Pittman Jr. get?
Let’s get into this week’s need-to-knows!
1. Cooper Kupp chasing receiving history
The former Eastern Washington star is on pace for 1,964 receiving yards (remember, the NFL now has 17 regular-season games). The single season receiving yards record belongs to none other than Calvin Johnson. Megatron posted 1,964 yards back in 2012 and yes, Matthew Stafford was his quarterback that year. Kupp is a foot and change off the pace! Unreal. Through Johnson’s first eight games in 2012, he had a pedestrian 767 yards and closed the back-eight with a Herculean 1,197 yards. He eclipsed 200 yards twice and hit 118-plus seven times. Johnson finished with 122.8 receiving yards per game, a record that will likely survive another year or a dozen.
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With an extra game at his disposal, Kupp is going to give Johnson a run at history. Kupp delivering a 63-924-10 stat line through not quite half a season is already bonkers, I haven’t even mentioned the touchdowns. Randy Moss’ 23 touchdowns back in 2007 were delivered by another quarterback still in the league (need I utter his name?). Kupp is on pace for 21 touchdowns and change. He has four games with two TD scores. Moss also had four games with at least two TDs (11 total) through eight games in ‘17 and finished the year with another dozen, including a four-TD monster performance in Week 11.
Are there any other records Kupp could reach? Marvin Harrison’s 205 targets. Kupp has 90 and is on pace for 191. How about most PPR points in the season? Back in 1995, the GOAT Jerry Rice posted 414 fantasy points (122-1,848-15), a whopping 25.9 per game. Kupp is averaging 26.9… Yes, ladies and gentlemen, in case the full breadth of this situation isn’t clear yet: Kupp is flirting with the best receiving season ever. He just needs to have one of the best half-seasons twice in one season… That makes sense, right?
Random GOAT fact: When Rice broke the all-time touchdown record (1994, Week 1, MNF vs. Raiders), he scored three touchdowns. His second touchdown of that game, which tied Jim Brown’s then-record, was a running play. A reverse where Rice took the ball 23 yards nearly untouched into the end zone off a lateral from a sweeping Ricky Watters.
2. Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards new opportunities
With at least five targets in every game, you can think of Renfrow like a poor man’s Cole Beasley. Renfrow’s wheelhouse is the short stuff, as evidenced by his 6.69 average depth of target (ADOT). While Henry Ruggs III was no target monster, his absence opens up more plays downfield. Renfrow isn’t a burner, but someone has to step up for the Raiders’ deep passing game. We’ll see if Derek Carr looks for him in such a role.
Edwards, not too long ago, was thought to be a likely sleeper this fantasy football season. I don’t expect him to elevate in anyone’s rankings beyond a flex play, but opportunity begets production. Through seven games, he has 18 receptions on 31 targets for 346 yards and a touchdown. That’s about 8.3 fantasy points per game in PPR. Nothing to write home about. There are some statistical glimmers, such as his 0.77 receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). An elite receiver has close to a 1.0-plus RACR, but it’s an imperfect stat as many running backs have huge ratios since they have limited air yards. The wisdom to take away here is that Edwards has been underachieving and will have a wide-open chance to make a bigger impact with only Zay Jones behind him on the depth chart to seriously contend for playing time.
All this said, thoughts to the friends and family of the woman and dog who lost their lives in the senseless tragedy that led us here.
Random Hunter Renfrow fact: Tied for the position lead with 11 missed tackles, Renfrow seems to have a sixth sense in feeling out defenders. You’ll often see him catch a ball facing Carr, a defender on his back, and he’ll wiggle out and find the open field.
3. Week 9 Buy, Hold, Sell
Most leagues have a Week 10 trade deadline, so let’s get a deal done sooner rather than later.
BUY: Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin
One of the most perplexing players of the first half of 2021, Gaskin has been hot and cold. Hot probably isn’t even the right word—more like a microwavable TV dinner left out too long. What’s the reason for the optimism? Well, I like most of what I’ve seen from a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. Half the game is converting third down. While not often needing to use his legs, Tua can tuck and run efficiently when needed. He has shown the chops to quickly diagnose out of zone option reads to hit the open man. Jaylen Waddle is emerging as the second-best rookie receiver in this class behind Ja’Marr Chase. Mike Gesicki, while far from dominant, holds down the middle of the field. DeVante Parker is healthy and can be a legit WR1 at times. Who knows, maybe Will Fuller finds a four-leaf clover and plays a couple more games. The offense is trending up, it just hasn’t yet caught up to Gaskin.
Likely most important to this argument is that his backfield vulture, Malcolm Brown, hit injured reserve a couple weeks back. Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird are being peppered in at best as the snaps and touches still lean heavily in Gaskin’s favor. Through eight games, Gaskin is the PPR RB19. He has a very favorable matchup against the Texans in Week 9 so I’m looking for him to gain some forward momentum here to close out the rest of the year.
If available, I’d also recommend Hunter Renfrow as a buy for the rest of the season.
HOLD: Jets RB Michael Carter
After his Week 8 explosion, Carter came back down to Earth on Thursday night. The game script was never in his favor and he managed just 49 rushing yards on 13 carries with one reception for 37 yards. The Jets posted 30 points on the scoreboard, yet none of the touchdowns went Carter’s way. I mentioned in my Week 9 dynasty stock watch that while I came away impressed with Carter, I wasn’t ready to crown him, à la Dennis Green, just yet. I still prefer Bears RB Khalil Herbert, whom I mentioned numerous times of late.
Productive and healthy running backs are like gold this time of year and while the performances will likely remain up-and-down in the second half of the season, now ain’t the time to get cute. Carter is a more than sufficient RB2 or flex play with some PPR appeal. The Jets aren’t likely to hang 30 again in any given week, but I’ll take my chances.
SELL: Falcons QB Matt Ryan
I guess you can’t sell what no one is willing to buy, so cut him.
I had high hopes for Ryan this year. Calvin Ridley was supposed to continue dominating and was a regular in the high WR1 range of preseason rankings. Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the GOAT fantasy tight end. He still can be, but this offense has just been so bad. Mike Davis is a “three yards and a cloud of dust” bust. Cordarrelle Patterson has been a silver lining, but he has his limitations. Atlanta has scored 16 TDs this year, seventh-fewest. They’re tied for six-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and tied for third-fewest yards per carry (3.7). The Falcons have just 20 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for third-fewest and just two for 40-plus, tied for second-fewest. They have no rushes over 20 yards, with a long rush of 18 yards, worst in the NFL.
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You get the picture. So almost no big plays and now they’ll be without their best player indefinitely. If you’ve been holding Ryan as a backup QB, set him free to the waiver wire. Check out my Week 9 rest-of-season rankings to see who’s the best available QB for your team.
4. Week 9 SI Fantasy Must-Reads
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
