Early in the season, I spoke several times about the developing potential issues for the ACC and the Big 12. Each conference only had one major Playoff contender, and a slip-up along the way for Clemson or Oklahoma could seriously hamper each league’s Playoff aspirations. As the season went on, though, and each team looked dominant (aside from Clemson’s scare against North Carolina), that scenario somewhat went by the wayside. It was still there, underlying everything, but avoided major focus.
Well, now it’s back. Kansas State upset Oklahoma, and now the Big 12 has serious concerns about making the Playoff.
In short, the conference has two problems. The first is a lack of ranked teams. The Big 12 currently has four, but Texas will likely drop out before the season ends. Kansas State has a favorable schedule moving forward, though, and 9-3 should be enough to get the Wildcats a decent ranking. With the conference’s full round robin, ranked wins in conference play will be very valuable. Right now the conference is looking at three ranked teams, though there are scenarios where it could end with four. (Iowa State’s loss to Oklahoma State this week did not help that cause, though.)
The Big 12’s second problem is Baylor. The Bears played one of the worst nonconference schedules in recent history. (That’s not an exaggeration; Baylor’s three nonconference opponents are a combined 4-18 on the season, including a 1-7 FCS team.) Add to that the fact that there aren’t many ranked wins to be had in-conference, and it’s hard to see Baylor getting in the Playoff at anything worse than 13-0. I would think that an 11-1 LSU/Alabama or Penn State/Ohio State loser would be well ahead of a 12-1 Baylor team.
What about the ACC?
The ACC is in a similar boat to the Big 12 last week. The conference only has one current Playoff contender, but that contender is a clear top team. Now, as we just saw with Oklahoma, Clemson could slip up. And if the Tigers do, they’ll be in trouble. But where is left for that slip to occur? On the road against a bad N.C. State team? At home against a middling Wake Forest team? Maybe at rival South Carolina? None of those would be good losses, though a loss to South Carolina is likely not disqualifying. Losing to whoever comes out of the mess that is the ACC Coastal Division, though, is. Clemson should definitely go 13-0 this year. If the Tigers don’t, though, a Playoff bid will be hard for the committee to justify.
Next… What to do with Minnesota
The Minnesota conundrum
The CFP selection committee is very fortunate that it does not release its first rankings of the season until next week. It is unfortunate for us, though, because the Golden Gophers would have given us an excellent insight into this committee’s thought process.
Minnesota has played eight games so far this year. None of those eight have been against particularly good teams. We can split those eight games up into two sets of four. The first four games, Minnesota struggled against pretty bad teams. In Week 1, they almost lost to and FCS team (granted, the No. 3 FCS team in the country). That was followed by wins that should have been losses against Fresno State and Georgia Southern, and a squeaker over Purdue. Since then, Minnesota has blown out Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland.
How will this committee view Minnesota? Do the voters care that Minnesota struggled early in the season, or does the fact that the Gophers won those games get them a pass? Is the committee more interested in the fact that Minnesota has been playing like a top team for the past month? Or will it value the lack of an actual resume more than looking good.
We don’t get to find out this week. Luckily for us, though Minnesota has a bye in Week 10. The Golden Gophers will have an identical resume next week, when the committee has to look at them. Keep an eye on what the committee does with Minnesota, because that will give us real insight into the voters’ process this year.
Next… Group of 5 race for the Cotton Bowl
Still a two-conference race
Looking at this week’s Amway Coaches Poll, you might think that Conference-USA still has a serious chance at the Cotton Bowl. After all, both Louisiana Tech and UAB received votes in the poll. Don’t be fooled, though. Even at 12-1, neither one of these teams would have any wins of any real quality. Neither is going to the Cotton Bowl.
No, things are still just a race between the AAC and the Mountain West, and the AAC is winning. The conference has five teams in the top 28 of both major polls. Even UCF, with two losses, will likely end up with a better resume than Boise State and San Diego State. Both of those Mountain West teams only have one loss, though (and both are ranked in the AP Poll right now), which means that if they meet at 11-1 each, the winner should have a strong resume. Boise State’s loss to BYU is brutal for the conference, but it’s a clear No. 2 behind the AAC.
Where does that leave Appalachian State? Unfortunately, nowhere good. The Mountaineers have no wins of any note, and their one somewhat-decent opponent (Louisiana) kept the game too close. Maybe if they blow out South Carolina in two weeks we can discuss it, but there’s a reason the Mountaineers are still behind Cincinnati. They’ll also be jumped by Memphis if the Tigers beat SMU this week. Appalachian State doesn’t have the resume to contend with any one-loss AAC teams, and probably not even a one-loss Mountain West team.
It’s a great season for Appalachian State, no doubt. But the Mountaineers will need a ton of help to get to the Cotton Bowl. Start rooting for Temple to win the AAC. That’s Appalachian State’s best shot.
