Buckeye fans get to watch Ohio State (hopefully) beat up on Northwestern Friday night, which leaves a whole Saturday for the Buckeyes to enjoy college football. There are a ton of games, and so many of them have an impact. How do they affect the Buckeyes? Let’s run through the weekend’s games and see what Ohio State fans should look forward to.
First of all, as always, the more upsets the better. There are still currently about a dozen teams in potential Playoff position. And the gap between the very top teams and two-loss teams is vast right now. The more top teams that fall, the more wiggle room the Buckeyes will have later on.
So go ahead, root for teams like Louisville, West Virginia, and Tennessee against Clemson, Oklahoma, and Alabama. It worked last week with South Carolina against Georgia; it can work again. (The Gamecocks, by the way, hosts Florida and is looking for a second straight SEC East upset. Georgia hosts an injury-riddled Kentucky team that actually used a wide receiver at QB last week.)
On Friday night, Pitt travels to Syracuse. Either result has benefits for the Buckeyes, but Clemson plays Syracuse and not Pitt, so the more losses Syracuse racks up the better. If it comes down to a 12-1 Ohio State or Clemson for a Playoff spot, the weaker that Clemson’s resume is, the better.
On Saturday, Boston College hosts N.C. State. Clemson is the ACC’s only ranked team, and the more losses that stack up around the league’s top teams, the more likely that is to stay true. Boston College winning is better; so would Florida State beating Wake Forest on Saturday night.
In the afternoon, Oregon visits Washington in a major Pac 12 clash. A Washington win would all but knock the entire conference out of the Playoff race. Ohio State, even at 12-1, is probably ahead of a 12-1 Oregon team anyway, but Oregon losing a second game would remove any stress from that situation.
Also remember to keep an eye on Ohio State’s nonconference opponents. Miami (Oh) probably won’t beat Northern Illinois this week, but the Redhawks could reach bowl eligibility this year. Cincinnati is ranked, and has to avoid a letdown when hosting a deceptively solid Tulsa team. And FAU is very quietly 4-2 and undefeated in Conference-USA play. If the Owls keep winning, the Buckeyes will have a solid overall nonconference schedule, even without playing a Power 5 team.
It won’t matter much, but Temple (who beat Maryland earlier this year) knocking off undefeated SMU will help a bit, as it makes Maryland’s loss look better. The Owls might have already ended that possibility by laying an egg against Buffalo, but Temple at one or two losses will still look like a stronger loss. Why could that matter? Let’s explain when we talk about the Big Ten.
Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games
Big Ten Rooting Interests
Not counting Ohio State vs Northwestern, there are five Big Ten battles next week. Who should Ohio State fans root for in each game? Let’s go through it.
Wisconsin @Illinois
This is an easy one. Buckeye fans want the Badgers. Not only is it better for Ohio State’s SOS since the Buckeyes will play Wisconsin and not Illinois, but a Wisconsin loss would also make next week’s showdown between the Buckeyes and Badgers far less high-profile. Gameday will almost definitely be in town, and it could be a Top 5 battle. Buckeye fans want to see Wisconsin win this game in a blowout.
Purdue @Iowa
The Hawkeyes have lost two tough games in a row, but are still ranked. Even though the Buckeyes play neither of these teams, the more ranked teams the Big Ten has, the better it looks overall. Penn State’s and Michigan’s valuable wins over Iowa only stay valuable if the Hawkeyes keep looking like a good team. Root for Iowa here so that the Hawkeyes can start moving back up the rankings.
Minnesota @Rutgers
A similar principle applies to this game as the game above, even though Ohio State actually played Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are a mess this year, and they won’t come close to going bowling or looking respectable. 2-10 will be the same as 4-8 when the Playoff committee is judging a win over Rutgers. So it’s better for the Buckeyes–whether via Big Ten association or via the SOS of common opponents–if Minnesota keeps on winning and moving up in the rankings.
Indiana @Maryland
This is an interesting one. In theory, Ohio State would love to see both of these teams go bowling. The Hoosiers should be able to get to six wins regardless, with remaining games against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue. A win this week would all but guarantee a bowl bid. Maryland, though, will be tough. The Terrapins, if they win this game, would need to beat two of Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Michigan State. Are there two wins in there? Maybe, but it would be very tough. Maryland beating Indiana has much more risk (that neither goes bowling), but also carries more reward. Looking at the analytics and odds of winning each game, it seems like rooting for Indiana and guaranteeing a fifth bowl-eligible Big Ten East team is best.
Next… Who to root for in the Penn State vs Michigan game
Michigan @Penn State
Okay. This one is complicated, because it really depends on what scenarios you think will play out over the course of the season.
First of all, we have to ask what Buckeye fans are worried about. A 13-0 Ohio State team is guaranteed a Playoff spot. So worrying about SOS and the rest of the country only comes into play if the Buckeyes lose a game. Where does that loss come? Is it to Northwestern, Maryland, or Rutgers? None of those seem remotely likely. That leaves the three potential losses being against Wisconsin, Penn State, or Michigan.
If the loss comes to Wisconsin, then the only real concern is SOS. Ohio State will still control its Big Ten East destiny, and will be a near-lock for the Playoff, but the better the resume looks the closer to more guaranteed that “near-lock” is.
If we’re assuming the Buckeyes lose to Wisconsin, then there are benefits to both possible results here. Penn State is 9-3 at absolute worst this year, and likely 10-2, even with a loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions will be a ranked team unless something insane happens. Ohio State would like to see Penn State as a Top 10-15 opponent, but it’s going to be at least Top 20.
Michigan, meanwhile, already has a loss, and has been losing voter support due to the nature of that loss. Another blowout, plus losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame, would likely keep Michigan out of the Top 25 entirely. If the Wolverines win one of those three (Penn State, Notre Dame, and Ohio State) then they’re probably ranked, but it won’t be very high. On the other hand, if Michigan can win this week and beat Notre Dame next week, then the Wolverines are a Top 10 team, and likely to be around the Top 5 when they meet Ohio State to close the season.
What if the Buckeyes lose to someone other than Wisconsin, though? If Ohio State loses to either Penn State or Michigan, the Buckeyes will need help just to make the Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan already has a Big Ten loss. A Penn State win would mean that the Buckeyes could lock up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game before playing Michigan.
If Ohio State is going to lose to Penn State, though, the Buckeyes need two teams to beat the Nittany Lions to get into the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana or Rutgers doing so seems unlikely. That leaves two out of three of Michigan, Michigan State, and Minnesota to beat the Nittany Lions.
All things considered, the Buckeyes probably want Michigan to win this week. Penn State is the bigger in-conference threat, and it’s hard to see the Nittany Lions getting to two losses without losing this week. Also, it will all but guarantee that both Penn State and Michigan are ranked at the end of the season, and the Buckeyes can use all the ranked opponents it can get.
Still, it might be best for the Buckeyes to make sure that Penn State isn’t the team to lose to. If Ohio State is going to drop a game, that game should really just be against Wisconsin.
