The Wisconsin Badgers may have been looking ahead to next week’s marquee showdown with Ohio State. Or maybe the Badgers just played a bad game, much like they did against Northwestern. Maybe–probably–it was a combination of both. Regardless, Wisconsin lost to Illinois, which was awful for its Playoff hopes and the Big Ten’s dreams of getting two bids.
Wisconsin now needs to win out to have any real shot at the Playoff. Luckily for the Badgers, though, they’re still basically a lock if they can finish at 12-1. That would require beating Ohio State, Minnesota, and (likely) either Penn State or Ohio State again. If the Badgers play their best they can definitely pull it off. But one more game like this week and their CFP hopes will be done.
For the Big Ten, the simplest path to two potential CFP bids (an Ohio State-Wisconsin split) is now gone. Remember, any chance at getting two bids hinges on what happens in the rest of the country. Even if conditions are favorable, though, there is no great path for the Big Ten. The conference either needs 12-0 Minnesota to meet (and likely beat) 12-0 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, or 11-1 Penn State/Ohio State has to look good enough to earn a bid without winning its division. Pitt winning the ACC would be the best-case scenario were that to happen, but it’s still quite a long shot.
Next…What are the options if we get chaos?
Current Playoff picture
As muddled as the current Playoff picture is–in my Eliminator piece, I list 16 teams that will be in excellent position if they win out–our chaos scenarios are actually calmer than what they were earlier in the season. After the first few weeks, it looked as though ACC and Big 12 chaos could lead to situations with no real Playoff contenders from conferences outside the SEC and Big Ten. Now, though, there’s a clear hierarchy–but there are options.
First of all, the SEC and Big Ten are each getting a bid. Yes, I can envision scenarios where neither does, but those are very difficult to imagine. For the Big Ten, at least one of Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, and Minnesota should finish with one or zero losses. The same is true for the SEC’s group of Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia. And, honestly, with the way this season is looking, a two-loss champion from those conferences would still be well in the picture.
In the ACC, Clemson doesn’t look like it will lose a game. If the Tigers do drop one, though, and that loss comes to Wake Forest, then the ACC might have a Playoff team anyway.
Similarly, the Big 12 has two relatively solid Playoff contenders right now. Sure, it’s possible that every team in the conference ends up with two losses. We can definitely still get all types of chaos. But between Oklahoma and Baylor, the Big 12 should be able to have at least one team with one loss or fewer.
If the ACC and Big 12 both falter, though, we could see some issues. Oregon and Utah are both very much in it, and if they are each 11-1 and meet in the Pac 12 Championship Game, the conference will be in a very strong position. Similarly, Notre Dame looks good for a potential Playoff bid if it can win out. Before we can talk about real chaos, we’d need to see Clemson lose (twice), Oklahoma and Baylor collapse, and for all three of Utah, Oregon, and Notre Dame to lose a game.
Chaos can come, but the scenarios look stable for now.
Next…The impact of Boise State’s loss on the Group of 5 race
Boise State falls
One of the final results of the night on Saturday might have had a tremendous impact on the race to get the Group of 5’s bid to the New Years Six bowls. (This year, that team is guaranteed a Cotton Bowl berth.) BYU upset Boise State, ending any hopes the Broncos had of going undefeated. How does this loss impact the overall race, though?
For starters Boise State is far from out of it. The Broncos still can go 12-1, and would be the favorites for the Cotton Bowl at that point. Don’t be fooled by the fact that SMU and Appalachian State are still undefeated. SMU’s schedule is incredibly backloaded, and the Mustangs face Memphis, Navy, and Tulane in November. If they go undefeated they’ll be in the Cotton Bowl, but don’t expect undefeated. Similarly, Appalachian State still has to face South Carolina. And even if the Mountaineers go 13-0, it’s not clear that they would be ahead of a one-loss Mountain West or AAC champion–though a lot of that will depend on how South Carolina finishes.
Are there any other contenders? Not really. The MAC is officially completely out of it. As is Conference-USA, though Louisiana Tech might be discussed a bit if the Bulldogs can go 12-1. The only other Cotton Bowl contenders are the Mountain West and AAC contenders. For the Mountain West, that’s Boise State, Utah State, San Diego State, and possibly Wyoming as well. For the AAC, it’s a whole host of teams. SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Navy, and probably Tulane are all still in the picture there.
This race will tighten as we see who the contenders from the AAC and MWC are, but the Cotton Bowl bid is almost certainly going to one of those two champions.
