The first quarter of the season has already seen San Diego State surpass its win total from last season, as the Aztecs are off to a 4-1 start after going just 3-9 a season ago.
SDSU is getting it done with a stifling defense that is allowing over 160 fewer yards per game this season than they did in 2024.
A pair of teams can get bowl eligible with wins this week: Fresno State and UNLV. The Rebels remain undefeated on the season, averaging 35.6 points per game, and have now scored at least 20 points in each of their last 27 regular-season games.
The hot start for the Mountain West this season includes a 3-1 record at home against power opponents.
Here is a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado State Rams
Friday, October 10
6:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: Fresno State –6.5
Over/Under: 46.5
The Bulldogs have looked like a favorite to win the Mountain West over the first month and a half of the season, while the Rams have been stuck in neutral for the opening stretch of 2025.
Turnovers will be key in this one. Fresno State is seventh in the nation with 11 takeaways this season, while Colorado State has given the ball away seven times in 2025.
The one advantage for the Rams is that the Bulldogs are getting interceptions; their nine on the season are the second most in the nation. CSU does not put the ball in the air much, but they have put it on the ground with fumbles.
The Rams lost five fumbles on the year, more than all but five teams nationally.
Fresno State looks poised to challenge for the league crown, and they’ll get the road win.
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, October 11
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: UNLV –6.5
Over/Under: 67.5
Also like the Friday game, this game features a team that is among the best in the nation at creating turnovers.
UNLV leads the country with a turnover margin of +1.6 per game, and its 13 forced turnovers are the most in the nation, with nine of them coming off interceptions. The Rebels have also recovered four fumbles this season.
Air Force is negative in the turnover department this season. And while they have only thrown four interceptions, they also have the third fewest pass attempts of any team in the nation.
The Falcons have thrown an interception on 4.7% of their pass attempts. The Rebels are getting a pick on 4.4% of opponents’ pass attempts.
UNLV has allowed some yards on the ground this season, so the Falcons might get some traction on offense. The over would look enticing, but 67.5 looks way too high for my liking.
The Rebels are one of just 11 remaining unbeaten teams in the nation, having gone 5-0 for the first time since 1974. The five wins may not have been pictures of perfection, but they are getting the job done.
The Rebels will not fall at home to a struggling Falcons squad.
Against the spread: UNLV
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV
San Jose State Spartans at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, October 11
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: San Jose State –2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Can SJSU find a continued spark in league play?
While San Jose State has started the season slowly, Wyoming has started each game slowly. The Cowboys have scored only 26 first-half points, with 17 of them coming in the win over Northern Iowa.
Against FBS opponents, UW is getting outscored 48-9 in the opening 30 minutes of games. It is a much more competitive seven-point deficit in the second half of games.
In a game like this, it could come down to QB play. Kaden Anderson has struggled this season for the Cowboys, while Walker Eget seems to be finding his rhythm for the Spartans.
Eget completed 86.7% of his throws for 334 yards and three TDs last week. In the previous two games, the QB has thrown for 807 yards with six TD passes and no interceptions.
San Jose State continues to look like a team turning things around, and they get the road win at Wyoming.
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos
Saturday, October 11
6:45 PM PT, FS1
Line: Boise State –16.5
Over/Under: 59.5
The Broncos will only play conference games from this point on, and that is a good thing for Boise State. Already with a win over Air Force this season, Boise State has now won 28 of its last 31 against conference opponents.
New Mexico has already fallen once in conference play this season and is now just 10-53 in Mountain West games since 2017.
Both enter this one with identical 3-2 marks, but the programs are anything but identical.
Boise State is 14th in the nation with a MW-leading 479 yards of offense per outing. The Lobos are surrendering 391 yards per game to rank seventh in the league and 96th in the nation.
The Bronco offense behind Maddux Madsen should be able to move the ball. The QB will have to limit the errors that plagued him against Notre Dame, as he threw four interceptions in the loss.
New Mexico is 126th in the nation against the pass and has forced just three interceptions in five games.
This seems like a game in which the Boise offense should be able to do almost anything it wants.
Jason Eck may turn things around at UNM, but they don’t get the breakthrough win this week. However, they will keep it within the 16.5 points they are being given.
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, October 11
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: San Diego State –7.5
Over/Under: 41.5
For the most part, the SDSU has been getting it done this season with a suffocating defense.
In the most recent win over Colorado State, it was the offense that got unleashed, out-gaining the Rams 540-355 for its first 500-yard offensive game since the 2020 season.
So, the Aztecs have shut out a couple of opponents, won a game putting up 45 points, and gutted out a 6-3 slugfest. In short, the Aztecs are winning in a variety of ways.
Nevada, on the other hand, is coming off a close loss to Fresno State, dropping them to 1-4 on the season, with the lone win over their FCS opponent.
Nevada is 91st in the nation against the pass, and Jayden Denegal is coming off his best game as an Aztec, throwing for career highs of 256 yards and two touchdowns, despite not playing a snap in the fourth quarter.
It looks as if Sean Lewis’s offense is finally starting to soar, and the Pack may not have any answers for it this week.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
Utah State Aggies at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 11
9:00 pm PT, MW Network
Line: Utah State -1.5
Over/Under: 58.5
But here we are in the second weekend of October, and the Aggies and ‘Bows both must view this one as a must-win to keep their MW title hopes alive.
Sure, it is early in the season, but no team in the conference has looked dominant. Here we find a pair of teams with winning records overall and each with a conference win under their belt.
UH also has a loss, falling in a close one to Fresno State. With a 2-0 start to MW play, the Aggies have a chance to secure a coveted road win.
Utah State has gotten some very good play from QB Bryson Barnes. Only 33 players in the nation have run for at least six TDs this season, and Barnes is one of them—and one of just 11 QBs nationally to have accomplished that.
UH has been pretty stingy against the run this season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. They may have to use a spy in this one and that could open some things in the passing game for the Aggies, who have found good balance all season.
Utah State is 3-0 at home but 0-2 in road games, while allowing 320 yards per game through the air in those two losses. Now, both of those road trips were to ranked SEC opponents, so it is hard to glean too much from those splits.
Hawai’i may not be on the level of Vandy and Texas A&M, but they can sling it around with the best of them. Micah Alejado looks healthy coming off a 457-yard performance at Air Force, a 44-35 win for UH.
Look for a similar shootout in this game. I expect a lot of points from both teams, but I like the offensive firepower of the home team a little bit more.
Hawaii wins an exciting one that is worth staying up for on Saturday Night.
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Hawai’i
