Week 7 CFP Eliminator: Still a lot of competitive teams

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

Right now, I have 31 teams as still being alive. Let’s go ahead and throw out SMU, Boise State, Appalachian State, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Missouri as well. Iowa, Texas, and Washington are really only still alive if we get some crazy chaos.

So where does that leave us? That means that after seven weeks, we still have 22 teams who can honestly tell themselves they have a realistic Playoff shot. Sure, Minnesota might not to pull off a few shockers to get in, but the Golden Gophers wouldn’t need any help. The same is true of teams like Wake Forest and Auburn. 22 is a lot of teams to have that kind of a chance.

Also, this means that we’ll see eliminations slow these next few weeks. The teams behind those 22 are way behind, so most of them can survive another loss and still be in the picture if we get some chaos. We’ll have to see how things shake out, but I don’t expect to be eliminating Minnesota anytime soon.

Next … What teams are still alive?

Week 2: Teams Remaining

We began the week with 40 teams. We eliminated nine more in Week 7, so 31 teams remain in contention. Barely one-quarter of FBS teams are still in contention.

ACC:

Team:	Notes:
Clemson	Undefeated after Week 7.
Duke	On the brink of elimination after second loss of the season.
Florida State	Eliminated with third loss.
Louisville	Loss to Notre Dame isn’t a huge negative. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination.
Pittsburgh	Two losses and no real chance for quality wins. UCF win isn’t as valuable. Hard to see any path to the Playoff.
N.C. State	Bad loss to West Virginia, but not awful. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination
Virginia	Loss to Notre Dame isn’t bad, but weak schedule and a second loss means no viable path to the Playoff
Wake Forest	Crazy loss to Louisville. Still faces Clemson.

Big 12:

Team:	Notes:
Baylor	Undefeated after Week 7.
Iowa State	On the brink of elimination with two very close losses.
Kansas State	Loss to Oklahoma State; win over Mississippi State looks meaningless now. Should probably be eliminated already, but I’ll wait for the Oklahoma game.
Oklahoma	Undefeated after Week 6.
TCU	Loss to SMU looks decent at the moment. On the brink of elimination.
Texas	Loss to LSU is huge missed opportunity. Faces Oklahoma in Week 7.

Big Ten:

Team:	Notes:
Iowa	Two very close losses to good teams. Good SOS, but hanging on by a thread.
Michigan	Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Will likely be eliminated with another Big Ten loss.
Michigan State	Eliminated with third loss.
Minnesota	Undefeated after Week 7. Looking better as the season goes on.
Ohio State	Undefeated after Week 7.
Penn State	Undefeated after Week 7.
Wisconsin	Undefeated after Week 7. Impressive win over Michigan.

Pac 12:

Team:	Notes:
Arizona	Loss to Hawaii looks worse and lost to Washington by three scores. Texas Tech win not holding up. Not enough potential left on the schedule to overcome that.
Arizona State	Good wins over Michigan State and Cal, but tough loss to Colorado.
Oregon	Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Still in decent shape, but no room for error.
USC	Loss to BYU looks worse as season goes on. Eliminated with third loss anyway.
Utah	Win over BYU looks worthless now, and loss to USC makes things tough.
Washington	Hawaii, BYU, and USC wins all got worse this week. Even with some solid potential wins remaining, it’s not enough to overcome two losses.

SEC:

Team:	Notes:
Alabama	Undefeated after Week 7.
Auburn	Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. Tough loss to Florida.
Florida	Big win over Auburn, but loss to LSU. Hard to see a two-loss Florida team getting in with those two FCS games, so needs to win out.
Georgia	Huge win over Notre Dame in Week 4. Ugly loss to South Carolina. Still a lock if it they win out.
LSU	Undefeated after Week 7. Big wins over Texas and Florida.
Mississippi State	Eliminated with loss to Tennessee.
Missouri	Been given a bowl ban but under appeal.
Texas A&M	Eliminated with third loss.

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: SMU

Conference-USA: Eliminated

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Boise State

Sun Belt: Appalachian State

 

Next … What teams are out?

Teams Eliminated

Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Later in the season, even undefeated Group of 5 teams might be eliminated. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.

Week 7:

Team:	Notes:
Arizona	Poor loss to Hawaii plus blowout loss to Washington. Not enough potential good wins on this resume to overcome those two.
Florida State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Memphis	Eliminated with Week 7 loss to Temple
Michigan State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Mississippi State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Texas A&M	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
USC	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Virginia	Missed its shot against Notre Dame and picked up a second loss. Not enough potential strength on resume to overcome two losses.
Washington	Wins over Hawaii, BYU, and USC lost luster. Not enough potential good wins left this season to overcome two losses.

Week 6:

Team:	Notes:
California	Win over Washington isn’t as valuable anymore. Lost its shot against Oregon, and win over Ole Miss won’t be enough to overcome that.
Colorado	Ohio State sucked any value out of the win over Nebraska, and the loss to Air Force isn’t good. Potential win over Washington isn’t as meaningful anymore.
Illinois	Eliminated with three losses, but I probably could have eliminated the Illini with just two.
Oklahoma State	Missed its shot against Texas, no noteworthy nonconference wins, and loss to Texas Tech is too much. Even a potential two wins over Oklahoma won’t make this a Playoff resume.
Washington State	Two bad losses (one because it was to UCLA, one because it was a blowout) and not enough potential quality wins end this season’s hopes.
West Virginia	Actually has a decent potential resume, but blowout nature of loss to Missouri means the Mountaineers could not survive a second loss.

Week 5:

Team:	Notes:
Boston College	A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years.
Indiana	Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten.
Kentucky	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Maryland	The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten.
Mississippi	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Navy	Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis
Nebraska	Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State
North Carolina	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Northwestern	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Oregon State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Purdue	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Rutgers	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan.
Texas Tech	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma
UAB	Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky
Virginia Tech	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke.

Week 4:

Team:	Notes:
Air Force	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State
Arkansas	Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4
Kansas	Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect.
San Diego State	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State
South Carolina	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Stanford	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Temple	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo
Tennessee	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
UCF	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt
Vanderbilt	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Wyoming	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa

Week 3:

Team:	Notes:
Georgia State	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan
Georgia Tech	Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3.
Hawaii	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington
Miami (Fl)	Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal.
New Mexico	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame
Syracuse	Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left.
Troy	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss
UCLA	Eliminated with 0-3 start.

Next … Group of 5 Eliminations from Weeks 1 and 2

Week 2:

Team:	Notes:
Army	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan
Bowling Green	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State
Buffalo	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane
Central Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin
Charlotte	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State
Cincinnati	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State
Eastern Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky
Marshall	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State
Nevada	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon
North Texas	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU
Northern Illinois	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah
Ohio	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh
Old Dominion	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech
San Jose State	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa
Southern Miss	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State
Tulane	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn
UConn	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois
ULM	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State
UNLV	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State
UTEP	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech
UTSA	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor
Western Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State

Week 1:

Team:	Notes:
Akron	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois
Arkansas State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU
Ball State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana
BYU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah
Coastal Carolina	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan
Colorado State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado
ECU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State
Fl. Atlantic	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State
Fl. International	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane
Fresno State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC
Georgia Southern	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU
Houston	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma
Kent State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State
Liberty	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse
Louisiana	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas
Miami (Oh)	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa
MTSU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan
New Mexico St	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State
Rice	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army
South Alabama	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska
South Florida	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin
Texas State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M
Toledo	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky
Tulsa	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State
UMass	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers
Utah State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest
Western Kentucky	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas