As I mentioned last week, the second bye this season has somewhat diluted the proceedings. On average, more top teams have a bye each week, and the “cupcake” nonconference games have been spread out as well. This has led to a lack of chaos, but it does have an upside. The season is a week longer, and the stage is set for the home stretch, which starts with a huge Week 7.
This has also had the effect of not fully eliminating a lot of teams, but we know now who our contenders are. We also, finally, seem to have developed a “second tier” of contenders, waiting to move in if the top teams falter.
Of course, lines might get blurred between our top tier and second tier. Which group is Penn State in? I don’t know, and I don’t have to judge. We’ll find out when the Nittany Lions play Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State. There are still 12 undefeated Power 5 teams, and every single one of them controls their own destiny. Additionally, one-loss P5 teams Auburn, Michigan, and Iowa control their own destinies as well.
That’s our list of true Playoff contenders right now. 15 teams. Who’s behind those 15 if we see stumbles? Then we have Texas, Notre Dame, Virginia, Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State.
That brings us to a total of 22 true Playoff contenders at this point. I still count 40 teams remaining, technically, but those last 18 would require lots of chaos.
22 contenders at this point in the season is a lot, though. Sure, Minnesota and Wake Forest will probably be knocked out when they start playing tough games, and conference battles will thin out the teams. Still, the extra bye has meant that more teams can still count themselves as being in the thick of it in October. That’s always fun. I’ve been saying since Week 3 that it didn’t look like we would have a second tier of contenders this year, but that might not be panning out. As of now, at least, whoever falls out of our top tier of 15 won’t be too far behind the very top teams.
Next… Conferences in the best and worst shape
SEC and Big Ten a step ahead
The SEC and Big Ten are clearly leading this college football season so far. Each conference has six ranked teams; no other conference has more than three. They each have four undefeated teams; no other conference has more than two. When talking Playoff contenders, the SEC and Big Ten are clearly the deepest right now. And, as they are the only conferences with multiple Top 10 teams, they are the only two who can really contemplate multiple Playoff bids.
Other conference issues
The ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12 each have no more than one contender. The Pac 12 needs one of its one-loss teams to run the table. A two-loss Stanford got as high as No. 6 in the final rankings in 2015, but no Pac 12 team has the SOS this year to come that close with two losses. Outside of Clemson, the ACC is in trouble. Sure, Virginia and Wake Forest could get there with lots of wins, but it’s hard to expect that kind of success from them. If Clemson drops a game, what happens to the conference?
The same is true about the Big 12. After Oklahoma, who else can get in? Texas, if the Longhorns run the table. Baylor is still undefeated, but it’s hard to see Baylor making the Playoff unless it goes undefeated. The Bears have the worst nonconference schedule in the country. Actually, it’s the worst nonconference schedule I’ve ever seen. This schedule makes Baylor’s three games in 2014 look tough. This season, Baylor’s best nonconference opponent is ranked at No. 148 by Sagarin so far (and that is winless Rice). That’s right. Baylor has not played a single team this year that would be a Top 25 FCS team, let alone a half-decent FBS team. Baylor isn’t getting in to the Playoff with a loss.
And this is where teams like Notre Dame or a second Big Ten or SEC team can step in. If Oklahoma and/or Clemson falters, where does the next option come from? If a two-loss team wins the Pac 12, there are no other options. It’s either Notre Dame or a conference doubling up. (And yes, I see you there, undefeated Boise State. You’re nonconference schedule just isn’t good enough this year. If Florida State is the team to knock of Clemson, we can talk. Unless that happens, though, it’s Cotton Bowl at best.)
Note:
In the next section, I usually detail what Buckeye fans should look forward to next week. However, because there are a lot of very important games this week (partly because there are still so many contenders) and because the Buckeyes have a bye, so there’s no Ohio State game to watch, I will post the “what to look forward to” section in a separate post later this week.
Next… The Group of 5 race to the Cotton Bowl
Boise State in control
It’s essentially a two-conference race for the Group of 5 bid to the Cotton Bowl, and Boise State has a definite lead in the proceedings. Thanks to UCF’s stumbles (and Cincinnati getting blown out by Ohio State), the Broncos are far ahead of every other Group of 5 team in perception right now. If Boise State wins out, no one will jump them.
The Mountain West also has three solid other contenders in Wyoming, San Diego State, and Hawaii. Each of those three has beaten a Power 5 team this year. San Diego State and Wyoming face each other this week, while Hawaii visits Boise State. A Hawaii win would hurt the conference’s chances, but the Mountain West has to like its overall position right now.
The other conference in contention, of course, is the AAC. The American has two teams ranked in this week’s Amway Coaches Poll, and three more receiving votes. The conference will beat itself up, but whoever comes out of there is in strong position if Boise State loses a game.
Tiny hopes for the rest
Appalachian State is still undefeated, and the Mountaineers have a good win over North Carolina. They face their toughest test of the season on Wednesday night against Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns probably have decent shot at being ranked themselves if they win out. Of course, we’re likely to see a rematch of this game in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in December, so this one might not matter too much anyway.
The MAC’s hopes rest solely on Toledo. The Rockets have a competitive loss to Kentucky (which doesn’t look as good now as it did a few weeks ago) and a decent win over BYU. They should also be favored in the rest of their games. No other MAC team has less than three losses, so Toledo at 12-1 is the only hope.
Similarly, Conference-USA has only one team with any type of a prayer, and that’s Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs got blown out by Texas and have weaker wins than even Toledo. It would take some serious chaos to see Louisiana Tech in the Cotton Bowl this year.
