Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain in more detail the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post, but in short, the basic premise of the Eliminator is this: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, teams will be eliminated. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
We all know that the Pac 12 is hanging on by a thread, and the time finally came to eliminate most of the conference’s two-loss teams. It is nearly impossible, at this point, to imagine any scenario that doesn’t involve a ton of chaos for a two-loss Pac 12 team to get in. I’m leaving Washington and USC alive because they each have potential for important nonconference wins (Hawaii’s only loss is still to watching, while USC still will face Notre Dame). It’s hard to pretend that those two have any real chance either, though. They’ll certainly each be eliminated soon, regardless of what happens.
Don’t feel bad, though, Pac 12. Other conferences are approaching your spot, too. We’re only a few weeks away from eliminating most of the Big 12 and ACC teams, too, as their good teams pick up losses and no one can beat the very top teams like Oklahoma and Clemson.
Also, let’s give a hand to SMU. The Mustangs are not a real Playoff contender, but they fought off elimination for now by erasing a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit. Those are the things that make college football incredible.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 2: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 46 teams. We eliminated six more in Week 5, so 40 teams remain in contention. Less than one-third of FBS teams are still in contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| Duke | On the brink of elimination after second loss of the season. |
| Florida State | Still has two current Top 10 teams on the schedule, and the Florida game just got potentially more valuable. |
| Louisville | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t a huge negative. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination. |
| Pittsburgh | Two losses and no real chance for quality wins. UCF win also just got worse. Hard to see any path to the Playoff. |
| N.C. State | Bad loss to West Virginia, but not awful. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination |
| Virginia | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t bad, but weak schedule means no margin for error. |
| Wake Forest | Undefeated after Week 6. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| Iowa State | On the brink of elimination with two very close losses. |
| Kansas State | Loss to Oklahoma State, plus win over Mississippi State doesn’t look as good now. On the brink of elimination |
| Oklahoma | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| TCU | Loss to SMU looks decent at the moment. On the brink of elimination. |
| Texas | Loss to LSU is huge missed opportunity. Faces Oklahoma in Week 7. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Iowa | Very close loss to Michigan. Faces Penn State next week. |
| Michigan | Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Will likely be eliminated with another Big Ten loss. |
| Michigan State | Loss to Arizona State hurts. Needs to win the Big Ten to have any type of chance. |
| Minnesota | Undefeated after Week 6. Barely. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| Penn State | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| Wisconsin | Undefeated after Week 6. Impressive win over Michigan. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Loss to Hawaii doesn’t look as bad as it used to. |
| Arizona State | Good wins over Michigan State and Cal, but tough loss to Colorado. |
| Oregon | Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Still in decent shape, but no room for error. |
| USC | Very tough loss to BYU. Good win over Utah. On the brink of elimination after loss to Washington. |
| Utah | Win over BYU looks mediocre now, and loss to USC makes things tough. |
| Washington | Hawaii is boosting nonconference SOS, but Playoff hopes are all but done. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated after Week 6. |
| Auburn | Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. Looked dominant against Mississippi State. Tough loss to Florida |
| Florida | Undefeated after Week 6. Played two FCS teams. Big win over Auburn |
| Georgia | Undefeated after Week 6. Huge win over Notre Dame in Week 4. |
| LSU | Undefeated after Week 6. Picked up big win over Texas in Week 2. |
| Mississippi State | Probably should be eliminated already, but I’ll leave them up until they face LSU (or lose to Tennessee). |
| Missouri | Been given a bowl ban but under appeal. |
| Texas A&M | Fell to Clemson in Week 2 and Auburn in Week 4, but wasn’t embarrassed in either game. Has three Top 10 teams remaining on schedule. |
Independents: Notre Dame
AAC: Memphis, SMU
Conference-USA: Eliminated
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Later in the season, even undefeated Group of 5 teams might be eliminated. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 6:
| Team: | Notes: |
| California | Win over Washington isn’t as valuable anymore. Lost its shot against Oregon, and win over Ole Miss won’t be enough to overcome that. |
| Colorado | Ohio State sucked any value out of the win over Nebraska, and the loss to Air Force isn’t good. Potential win over Washington isn’t as meaningful anymore. |
| Illinois | Eliminated with three losses, but I probably could have eliminated the Illini with just two. |
| Oklahoma State | Missed its shot against Texas, no noteworthy nonconference wins, and loss to Texas Tech is too much. Even a potential two wins over Oklahoma won’t make this a Playoff resume. |
| Washington State | Two bad losses (one because it was to UCLA, one because it was a blowout) and not enough potential quality wins end this season’s hopes. |
| West Virginia | Actually has a decent potential resume, but blowout nature of loss to Missouri means the Mountaineers could not survive a second loss. |
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Boston College | A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years. |
| Indiana | Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Kentucky | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Maryland | The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Mississippi | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Navy | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis |
| Nebraska | Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State |
| North Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Northwestern | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Oregon State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Purdue | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Rutgers | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan. |
| Texas Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma |
| UAB | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke. |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4 |
| Kansas | Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect. |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State |
| South Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Stanford | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Temple | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo |
| Tennessee | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| UCF | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt |
| Vanderbilt | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech | Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) | Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse | Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA | Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Next … Eliminations from Weeks 1 and 2
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
