Among the West Coast Big Ten schools, only UCLA and Washington are in action this week.
The Bruins get a visit from a hungry Nittany Lions team, while the Huskies visit Maryland in what could be a tricky cross-country road test.
With apologies to the Wildcats and Warhawks, we stick with conference games only this week.
Here is a look at the six Big Ten games of Week Six.
Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, October 4
9:00 AM PT, FOX
Line: Michigan -16.5
Over/Under: 42.5
That is the good news.
In the other games, those four opponents have played against FBS opponents those teams are only averaging 119.6 yards per game on the ground.
So, limiting those opponents more than half their normal average is good, but it is not like any of those teams are producing huge rushing numbers to begin with.
Michigan, on the other hand, is a very good running team. The Wolverines are currently 8th in the nation, producing 253.5 yards per game. If Wisconsin can hold them to under 100, then we can take notice.
And should the Badger defense continue to hold an opponent to 59% less than their rushing average, and limit Michigan to 105 yards on the ground, then Wisconsin will win this game.
But the Badgers will not limit Michigan to 105; in fact, I think Michigan runs for at least 175 on them. Justin Haynes ranks third in the nation running the ball for 134.3 per outing all alone.
On the other side of the ball, Danny O’Neil was battered by the Maryland pass rush last time out. Whether it is O’Neil again or Billy Edwards under center, neither will have much time to operate.
UW is allowing 3.25 sacks per game, which is 126th in the nation. Michigan is getting to the QB better than all but five teams nationally this season with 3.5 sacks per game.
Look for the Wolverines to grind this one out on offense and stymie the Badgers when they have the ball. Michigan wins this one comfortably.
Against the spread: Michigan
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, October 4
9:00 AM PT, BTN
Line: Illinois -9.5
Over/Under: 56.5
But then again, there was no reason in the world why it took a frantic comeback for the Illini to beat Purdue in OT last season. That snapped an Illini four-game losing streak in the battle for the Cannon.
Illinois is 8-1 in their last nine games and averaged 34.9 points per game during that stretch. The lone outing at Indiana a couple of weeks ago being the outlier. Illinois and Luke Altmyer rebounded last week to beat a very good USC team.
Altmyer is 12th in the nation in passing efficiency, Purdue is 112th in the nation in opponent passer rating and in their two losses to Notre Dame and USC, the Boilers have had a rating of 183.1 against them.
If Purdue wants to have any chance of pulling the upset, they need to get the ground game going behind Devin Mockobee. The senior back is averaging just 61.5 yards per game with over half of his season total coming against Southern Illinois.
Against FBS opposition he’s averaging just 40 yards per game. If Purdue can’t run the ball against Illinois, they have no shot.
Against the spread: Illinois
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois
Penn State Nittany Lions at UCLA Bruins
Saturday, October 4
12:30 PM PT, CBS
Line: Penn State -25.5
Over/Under: 50.5
So, more changes within the Bruins staff. Tino Sunseri is out as OC and Jerry Neuheisel steps to call the offensive plays.
Starting things off against a Penn State squad coming off a tough loss to Oregon may not be the optimal jumping off point. The Bruins offense has been woeful this season, ranking 117th in the nation.
Penn State, on the other hand, has the 19th-best defense in the nation statistically speaking. Who is calling the plays may not matter in this one, but we could at least see if the Bruins have a bit more creativity in the play calling.
If UCLA is to shock the world, then they will need Nico Iamaleava to have a big game. The QB leads the Bruins in rushing this season and he may need to produce with his arm and legs in this one.
Penn State will bring a lot of pressure and his ability to make something out of busted plays will be critical. Last week, Dante Moore had 35 yards on 10 carries, some out of necessity and some by design.
The Bruins will need more of that from their QB this week as they don’t have the weapons to match Penn State punch for punch.
Against the spread: Penn State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State
Washington Huskies at Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, October 4
12:30 PM PT, BTN
Line: Washington -6.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Fast forward 43 years and that bowl game the two schools inaugurated is no longer a bowl game and the teams are meeting as conference foes in a pivotal game for both.
Washington is coming off a loss to Ohio State to open conference play. Maryland is 4-0 following a road win at Wisconsin to open Big Ten play. We know the Buckeyes are very good, but I am not so sure about the Badgers.
But the 20-point lead the Terps took into the half against Wisconsin was the programs largest road lead at the break in a conference game since they led at NC State 24-0 in 2007 as an ACC member. . . So this one seems like a dangerous road trip for UW.
A reason for the Huskies to be concerned is the play of Malik Washington at QB for UMD. The QB is putting up numbers that have not been seen from a true freshman since Jayden Daniels at Arizona State in 2019.
The Terps defense has also been good, allowing just 43 points this season, the fewest by a Maryland team in the first four games of the season since 2013. This Washington offense, however, will be unlike anything the Terps have seen this season.
Maryland gave up 180 on the ground to Northern Illinois, the same team that was limited to 112 on the ground in a 6-3 loss to San Diego State last week.
The Huskies are running the ball for 201.3 per outing and 260 in the three games not against Ohio State. Jonah Coleman and the UW offense will get theirs.
The question is whether the Huskies can limit Maryland and its potent passing attack. And that answer, I think, is a yes. Malik Washington is very good, and he will get even better, he just needs more around him and the Terps just don’t have it this season.
Against Wisconsin, the wideouts had way too many dropped passes. Malik Washington is going to will Maryland to an upset win this season, it’s just not happening this week.
Against the spread: Maryland
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Washington
Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, October 4
1:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Nebraska -11.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Nebraska’s passing offense is the second-best in the nation with a Big Ten leading 351.8 yards per game.
Dylan Raiola racked up 308 yards in passing against Michigan the last time out, and he will feast on this Michigan State secondary.
If the numbers are not as gawdy this time out it is quite simply because the Huskers will also have success on the ground against MSU, something they could not do against UM.
The Spartans have been pedestrian at best this season on offense, but they have the potential to produce on that side of the ball. MSU has weapons with Omari Kelly and Nick Marsh on the outside and a healthy Makhi Frazier is a threat in the backfield.
Aidan Chiles needs to continue to be sharp with the football and avoid turnovers.
Nebraska will win this one, the 11.5 seems to be ripe for a late backdoor cover from MSU, but I am going to say Nebraska keeps it around a two TD victory.
Look for both teams to put up points and run this one over the 48.5 on offer.
Against the spread: Nebraska
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Nebraska
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 4
4:30 pm PT, NBC
Line: Ohio State -24
Over/Under: 44.5
But Ohio State just keeps on winning—and doing so in dominant fashion.
The Buckeyes defense has yet to allow double digits in a game, including a Texas team that is averaging 40 points per game when not playing Ohio State.
Julian Sayin leads the nation with a completion rate of 78.8 while ranking fourth in America with a rating of 189.81. On defense Caden Curry leads the nation with 2.0 tackles for loss per game this season and is second with 1.25 sacks per outing.
Oh, and by the way, OSU is 13-0 all-time when he gets at least one TFL. This Buckeye team is good and extremely balanced.
Minnesota will need to play a perfect game to get a win in this one. The Gophers are 91st in the nation in red zone scoring. The Gophers have left far too many points on the field this season and can’t afford to squander the few scoring chances they will have.
Since 1981, Ohio State is 29-1 against Minnesota. In fact, if you go back to 1969, the Buckeyes have won 40 of the last 42 in the series. That run is not stopping this week, OSU wins big.
The Gophers defense might be stout enough to keep the total under 44.5, but this one has a 38-6 kind of feel to it.
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
