I was looking at what I said at this point of the season last year, and it’s striking how similar the situations are. Also, as I pointed out a few weeks ago, both of these years look a lot like 2016.
In 2016, our top tier of contenders ran away with it, so much so that Ohio State, Clemson, and Washington all essentially had a one-game lead on the field–which those three teams utilized, all surviving a loss late in the season to advance to the Playoff anyway.
Last year, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Notre Dame looked like the top teams early. Of course, they didn’t have superior resumes to everyone else, so in theory other teams could have caught that group. No one did, and Georgia Ohio State just missed the Playoff.
This year, though, is a little different. We definitely have a top tier group, one which has mostly the same faces–Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, and LSU. For now, though, there’s another group right up there with them. Auburn, Wisconsin, and Penn State are right in the mix. Florida might be as well, though I am far less sold on the Gators than most. Give it a week, and maybe we’ll be adding Iowa to the list as well.
The good thing for the CFP selection committee, though, is that things will shake themselves out. Right now, we have one contender from the ACC, one from the Big 12, and a whole bunch from the Big Ten and SEC. Those last two conferences should shake themselves out, so we essentially have four front-runners at the moment. How, exactly, they beat each other up and come through, though, will determine how many Playoff bids they get–or if they get a bid at all. And there are a whole bunch of one-loss teams–including Notre Dame and a strong group of Pac 12 contenders–waiting in case a spot opens up.
Why, exactly, all the pundits view the SEC as having a chance to put multiple teams in the Playoff is puzzling. Perhaps I’ll be able to discuss this in depth in another post, but any such opinions are based far more on preseason hype than any actual on-field results. The trios of Alabama, LSU, and Georgia are very comparable to Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. The only difference is that because the SEC only plays eight conference games, neither Alabama nor LSU will face Georgia in the regular season. Wisconsin will travel to face Ohio State in Week 9. Maybe that extra game will be the difference. But if we’re judging on-field performance so far, there’s no reason to discuss a two-bid SEC any more than a two-bid Big Ten.
Next … This year’s unique schedule and its Playoff impact
The extra bye is confusing
It’s just five weeks into the season, and many fans may have noticed that college football seems less chaotic than usual this year. There are two basic reasons for that.
First of all, we haven’t really seen as many upsets as we sometimes do. Sure, plenty of ranked teams have lost, but we haven’t seen any real shockers taking down Top 5 or Top 10 teams. That lack of top-end upsets definitely skews the chaos meter a little bit.
Secondly, though, and far more importantly, this year’s college football season is extended an extra week. Every team gets two byes this year. Two bye weeks, of course, means less football on average in each week of the season. More top teams and ranked teams have byes each week, which means we’re getting less action every Saturday. Of course, this evens out with the fact that we’ll get one week more of football than in most years, but it still lessens the impact of each Saturday.
Of course, either one of these facts on their own probably wouldn’t be enough to really make fans take notice. Some years have more top-end chaos, and some years less. And the schedule still has plenty of games on it each week. It’s the fact that these two things are happening together that is making some fans notice, which isn’t so good. It’s leading to plenty of takes like this.
Now, there’s still lots of great football, and I’m sure we’ll get plenty of chaos this season. But for fans who have come to expect the nonstop chaos that we get some years (like 2017), this change can be a bit of a shock.
Playoff impact of Week 5
Of course, the above section was my way of introduction to saying that nothing really changed from last week. Seriously. There’s nothing different. The Pac 12 still is a mess, but we might get a Playoff contender out of it if someone can run the table. Undefeated Cal fell, but no one expected the Golden Bears to go 13-0 anyway, so we’re back with what we expected. The conference has a lot of good one-loss teams, and if one of them can win out we’ll see a potential Playoff contender from the Pac 12. Otherwise we won’t.
The ACC is still in trouble if Clemson doesn’t win out. The Tigers survived a heck of a scare against North Carolina this week. A loss there would have really hurt the conference’s hopes, but as long as Clemson is undefeated there isn’t much to worry about. Virginia lost to Notre Dame, which will hurt the conference’s ranking perception, but Wake Forest is also still undefeated so the Demon Deacons will likely slide up in the rankings. Still, Wake Forest has looked nowhere near as good as its record suggests, and its advanced metrics are weak, so don’t be surprised if the Demon Deacons fall off in the second half of the season.
Next … What Ohio State fans should watch for next week
Week 6 Ohio State Implications
Week 6 has a bunch of games that really impact the Buckeyes, some more directly than others.
First of all, Cincinnati hosts UCF on Friday night. The Buckeyes faced an almost-ranked Cincinnati earlier in the year–and beat the Bearcats so badly that they haven’t received a single vote since. Cincinnati is still a really talented team, though, and could end up with ten or more wins. Will that be enough to be ranked by the end of the season? It’s hard to know, but a win over UCF will go a long way towards that being a possibility.
The Iowa vs Michigan game presents a bit of a conundrum for Buckeye fans, which I’ve touched on before. Now that the season has developed a bit, the dilemma is clear. Michigan likely won’t be a Top 10 opponent for Ohio State. Iowa, on the other hand, won’t be an opponent for Ohio State at all. But a 10-2 or 11-1 Hawkeyes team will be in the Top 15 come season’s end, and that makes the Big Ten look good as a whole. Who to root for? It’s hard to know this early.
In the rest of the Big Ten, just look for Wisconsin and Penn State to keep impressing. Also, Minnesota staying undefeated can’t hurt the Big Ten’s perception, even though the Golden Gophers look like the flimsiest of paper tigers at the moment.
In other conferences, there’s not too much to focus on. Keep half an eye on the LSU-Utah State game at noon on Saturday. Utah State is a good team. The Aggies won’t upset LSU, but they are a talented team and might catch LSU looking ahead to Florida in Week 7. I won’t be holding out hope for LSU to lose, but the game might be close enough that the Tigers’ perception falls below Ohio State.
Upsets around the country always help, as they just widen the gap between the top tier and the chasing teams. The Buckeyes already essentially have a one-game lead over the Pac 12, so there’s not much to worry about from those teams. Obviously, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma losing would also be good. Alabama has a bye this week, and Georgia (against Tennessee) and Oklahoma (against Kansas) seem like safe wins this week. Auburn has a tougher schedule and better upside than Florida, so rooting for the Gators in that game makes sense, though neither result is bad for Ohio State.
Next … Group of 5 discussion
Group of 5 race
Last week, I mentioned that chaos scenarios would be good for Boise State this year. Well, with Marshall and BYU (two of Boise’s better nonconference opponents) picking up bad losses, that pipe dream is all but gone. Florida State beating Clemson and winning the ACC would still keep the dream somewhat alive, but even that is likely not enough.
The Broncos are in great position, though, to get the Cotton Bowl bid reserved for a Group of 5 team this year. They’re the only undefeated Group of 5 team with any name recognition or resume. An undefeated Memphis or SMU might catch the Broncos, but Boise State is so far clear of those teams right now that it seems pretty safe, as long as it keeps winning.
Who’s up next if Boise State loses? UCF is the obvious answer. Even with the loss to Pitt, UCF remains ranked. We’ve had a two-loss team earn the Group of 5 NY6 bid before (Boise State in 2014), and UCF possibly isn’t out even with a second loss. If someone else wins the AAC, though, then things can be up for grabs. Cincinnati has a 42-point loss to Ohio State. That’s basically the same as everyone else who plays the Buckeyes, though, so it maybe it won’t hurt Cincinnati’s chances at reaching the Cotton Bowl.
And, of course, Appalachian State is still undefeated and hoping for an opportunity. The Mountaineers could have had a huge resume boost had North Carolina knocked off Clemson. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels fell just short, but Appalachian State probably earned some respect for beating North Carolina by more than Clemson did.
