Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain in more detail the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post, but in short, the basic premise of the Eliminator is this: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, teams will be eliminated. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
This week was elimination-happy, with 15 more eliminations. While that’s a rare number for any time after the first two weeks, it also makes sense with how the season is shaping up.
We have had so few mid-level or low-level Power 5 teams upsetting better teams, so no one is hanging on to a potential Playoff bid. Second and third losses are coming rapidly, quickly eliminating Power 5 teams towards the middle and bottom of the conferences. And, unless we start seeing some upsets soon, we’re going to be eliminating upper-middle P5 teams earlier than usual this year, also.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 2: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 61 teams. We eliminated 15 more in Week 5, so 46 teams remain in contention. Barely over one-third of FBS teams are still in contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Duke | Loss to Alabama isn’t a huge negative. Will face Notre Dame in Week 11. |
| Florida State | Still has two current Top 10 teams on the schedule. |
| Louisville | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t a huge negative. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination. |
| Pittsburgh | Two losses and no real chance for quality wins. Beat UCF in Week 4, but victory likely won’t get the respect it deserves. |
| N.C. State | Bad loss to West Virginia, but not awful. Still faces Clemson. |
| Virginia | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t bad, but weak schedule means no margin for error. |
| Wake Forest | Undefeated after Week 5. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Iowa State | On the bring of elimination with two very close losses. |
| Kansas State | Loss to Oklahoma State plus win over Mississippi State doesn’t look as good now. |
| Oklahoma | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Oklahoma State | Tough loss to Texas. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
| TCU | Loss to SMU looks decent at the moment. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
| Texas | Loss to LSU is huge missed opportunity. Faces Oklahoma in Week 7. |
| West Virginia | Ugly loss to Mizzou in Week 2. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Hung tough against Nebraska. Will likely be eliminated at some point, even without another loss. |
| Iowa | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Michigan | Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Will likely be eliminated with another Big Ten loss. |
| Michigan State | Loss to Arizona State hurts, but a very good team when the offense is working. |
| Minnesota | Undefeated after Week 5. Barely. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Penn State | Undefeated after Week 5. |
| Wisconsin | Undefeated after Week 5. Impressive win over Michigan. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Loss to Hawaii doesn’t look as bad as it used to. |
| Arizona State | Good wins over Michigan State and Cal, but tough loss to Colorado. |
| California | Lost close game to Arizona State in Week 5, but has win over Washington. |
| Colorado | Solid win over Nebraska, bad loss to Air Force. |
| Oregon | Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Three more currently-ranked teams remain on the schedule. |
| USC | Very tough loss to BYU. Good win over Utah. On the brink of elimination after loss to Washington. |
| Utah | Win over BYU looks mediocre now, and loss to USC makes things tough. |
| Washington | Bad loss to Cal in Week 2. Weak nonconference SOS. No room for error left. |
| Washington State | Brutal loss to UCLA. On the brink of elimination now, and likely should be already. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated after Week 5. Duke win looks better for now. |
| Auburn | Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. Looked dominant against Mississippi State. |
| Florida | Undefeated after Week 5. Played two FCS teams. |
| Georgia | Undefeated after Week 5. Huge win over Notre Dame in Week 4. |
| LSU | Undefeated after Week 5. Picked up big win over Texas in Week 2. |
| Mississippi State | Probably should be eliminated already, but I’ll leave them up until they face LSU (or lose to Tennessee). |
| Missouri | Been given a bowl ban but under appeal. |
| Texas A&M | Fell to Clemson in Week 2 and Auburn in Week 4, but wasn’t embarrassed in either game. Has three Top 10 teams remaining on schedule. |
Independents: Notre Dame
AAC: Memphis, SMU
Conference-USA: Eliminated
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Later in the season, even undefeated Group of 5 teams might be eliminated. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Boston College | A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years. |
| Indiana | Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Kentucky | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Maryland | The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Mississippi | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Navy | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis |
| Nebraska | Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State |
| North Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Northwestern | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Oregon State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Purdue | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Rutgers | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan. |
| Texas Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma |
| UAB | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke. |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4 |
| Kansas | Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect. |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State |
| South Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Stanford | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Temple | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo |
| Tennessee | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| UCF | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt |
| Vanderbilt | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech | Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) | Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse | Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA | Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
