The Week 4 college football roundup. The 5 things that matter, winners and losers, overrated and underrated, and what it all means.
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College Football Week 4 Roundup
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Coach Hot Seat Rankings | 10 Best Week 4 Games
College Football Playoff Chase: Who’s Still Alive?
Early Week 5 Line Lookahead & Projection
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
– Ten Quick Thoughts On …
USC 30, Utah 23 | Wisconsin 35, Michigan 14
Georgia 23, Notre Dame 17 | Big Ten | Big 12
5. Winners & Losers From Week 4
Winner: Betting on the superstars
The best teams in college football weren’t kidding around.
Clemson was a 41.5-point favorite against Charlotte and won 52-10.
Alabama was a 38.5-point favorite against Southern Miss and won 49-7.
Georgia didn’t cover the 14.5 against Notre Dame – no surprise – but LSU was giving up 24 to Vanderbilt and won 66-38.
39.5-point favorite Ohio State spotted Miami University the first five points and won 76.5.
Loser: Betting on the Cougars
Washington was only a 6.5-point favorite over BYU. The Cougars lost at home by 26. That was bad, but the bookends to the weekend were a whole lot worse.
Starting the college football fun on Thursday night, the Houston Cougars were getting 5.5 against Tulane, and all appeared to be fine as they got up 28-7 in the second quarter. And then the roof caved in.
Up 31-28 late in the 4th, all the Green Wave had to do was come up with one fourth down stop, and you’d have been fine if you took Houston. Instead, QB D’Eriq King ran for the first down, leading to a game-tying field goal. On the ensuing drive, all you needed was for Tulane to kick a field goal for the win, instead …
The weekend finished up with the Washington State Cougars – an 18.5-point favorite – cruising along with a 49-17 lead over UCLA late in the third quarter. The Bruins scored 40 points over the last 19 minutes for the improbable 67-63 win, led by …
Winner: Dorian Thompson-Robinson
There’s the UCLA offense we’ve been waiting for. DTR completed 25-of-38 passes for 507 yards with five touchdowns – to go along with 52 rushing yards and two scores – in the thriller over Wazzu. He took an absolute beating along the way and still came through. Meanwhile …
Loser: Anthony Gordon
41-of-61 for 570 yards and nine touchdown passes … and he lost. The running Twitter gag was that it was going to take ten touchdown throws to win the game. Ha ha, it turned out to be true. Which leads to this …
Winner: Army running game
With 403 yards in its 52-21 win over Morgan State, Army has now hit the 200-yard rushing mark in 16 straight games, and rushed for two bills in 33 of its last 34 games. Only Duke held the Knights down, allowing just 168 yards in last year’s opening week win.
Loser: Army passing game
Army completed one of its seven pass attempts against Morgan State – it went for a touchdown. In one game, UCLA and Washington State combined for as many touchdown passes (14) as Army has thrown over its last 37 games.
Winner: SMU
It’s been a long, long, long time since SMU fans were able to get this fired up about their program. Considering TCU was in the Mountain West in 2011, the last regular season win – the 2011 Mustangs beat Pitt in the BBVA Compass Bowl – over a Power Five program was against Washington State early in 2010. Before that? The 2000 season-opener against Kansas.
To take this one step further, the last win over a Power Five program in a true road game was at Arkansas in early 1996. Now, SMU is 4-0 with a thrilling 41-38 victory over a TCU team that destroyed Purdue the week before.
Loser: The Big 12
The league is going to be a whole lot of fun, and almost everyone has had at least one big moment in out of conference play, but TCU’s loss stings. The conference is going to eat itself up – Kansas is no longer free-space game – with Texas unlikely to run the table. It’s going to be Oklahoma or bust for the College Football Playoff.
Winner: QB Kelly Bryant vs. South Carolina
At Clemson in 2017, Bryant threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns in the 34-10 win over South Carolina. With his new Missouri team, on Saturday he ran for 77 yards against the Gamecocks and threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns in the 34-14 win.
Loser: QB Hunter Johnson, Northwestern
It’s been a rough start for the Clemson transfer, completing just 49% of his passes for 308 yards with one touchdown and four picks in three games. He’s averaging just 4.5 yards per throw.
The Really Big Thing | Most Overrated Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The really big thing was …
4. The Really Big Thing Was …
On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin, plunge right through that line …
At least in the rankings – 9th in the Coaches Poll and 8th in the the AP – Wisconsin isn’t quite there when it comes to breaking through that ceiling to be one of this year’s elite of the elites. However, no one so far – not Clemson vs. Texas A&M, or LSU over Texas, or Georgia over Notre Dame, or Auburn over Oregon – has come up with a more dominant performance over a top 15 team than what the Badgers did to then-No. 11 Michigan.
Now the Badgers have their moment. It was the early game on Saturday, almost everyone saw it, and now they have set the expectations at a reasonably high level.
The post-game narrative in Michigan’s 35-14 loss that wasn’t even that close – the Wolverines came up with two late scores when the game was effectively over – was how awful it looked and how ill-prepared Jim Harbaugh’s team was. But Wisconsin had something to do with that.
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Coach Hot Seat Rankings | 10 Best Week 4 Games
College Football Playoff Chase: Who’s Alive?
Early Week 5 Line Lookahead & Projection
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
Behind a brilliant game from the offensive line, the Badgers had the ball for nearly 25 minutes in the first half, and before a late Dylan McCaffrey run had outgained the Wolverines 200 rushing yards to zero.
How air-tight is Wisconsin after three games? It’s No.1 in the nation in scoring defense, No. 1 in third down defense, No. 1 in time of possession, No. 1 in pass efficiency defense, No. 2 in turnover margin, and No. 2 in first downs allowed.
What’s truly different about this team? Jonathan Taylor and the running game that rolled for 359 yards had the starring role, but QB Jack Coan hit 13-of-16 passes. The Badgers are third in the nation in completion percentage and 15th in the nation in passing efficiency.
Now it’s time to do what the elites do and blast through the supposed layup games with little to no drama. Northwestern is the defending West champ but it’s been awful so far. Wisconsin has to win next week in a walk.
For now, this was a potential signature moment. Wisconsin aced its test.
Winners & Losers | Most Overrated Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The most overrated thing was …
3. The Most Overrated Thing Was …
Pitt 35, UCF 34
The Pitt victory over UCF was simply a fabulous football game. However, considering the way the College Football Playoff system is currently set up, the win didn’t have any greater meaning like many had suggested.
It was a big deal because UCF hadn’t lost a regular season game since dropping the 2016 date with USF. Over a span of 27 straight non-bowl games, the Knights managed to win, win, and win some more.
They shocked Auburn for the 2018 Peach Bowl, hung around with LSU in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, destroyed Stanford 45-27 two weeks ago …
And they weren’t going to come anywhere near the College Football Playoff no matter what happened against Pitt.
It became a talking point on social media and among the talking heads on the various studio shows that UCF’s playoff hopes ended because it lost on the “Pitt special” play at the end.
Nah.
In a year with Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU – and on a second-level, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Notre Dame and Florida – all still around and looking dominant against other Power Five programs, it was going take nothing short of a miracle for UCF to finish up in the top six this year in the final CFP rankings, much less the top four.
This isn’t about whether or not UCF, or any Group of Five program, should be in the College Football Playoff discussion if it goes unbeaten. This is about how the system isn’t there for UCF, Boise State, Appalachian State, or any GOFer to have an honest shot. To suggest otherwise – like, if UCF had beaten Pitt 45-14 like it did last season – is just false.
A win would’ve created more of the same discussions, and the same fights, and the same frustrations, only to end up with four Power Five programs in the College Football Playoff.
Should the CFP expand to six or eight teams and automatically include the top-ranked Group of Five champion? Absolutely. Does a Group of Five program currently have a realistic shot to get in without an expanded field or a mandated spot? Nope.
Winners & Losers | The Really Big Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The most underrated thing was …
2. The Most Underrated Thing Was …
Auburn became a real, live player.
There’s nothing all that sexy about your 2019 Auburn Tigers.
They’re not ripping through everyone in their path with an unstoppable offense that hits home run after home run – at least not yet – like the 2013 team did.
The Oregon game was certainly amazing at the end, but there haven’t been any miracles or Team of Destiny moments yet.
The defense has been fine, the running game is decent, and freshman QB Bo Nix has played four college football games without having an accident, but even with the amazing 57-yard touchdown run from Anthony Schwartz, there’s no flash.
Unless you’re Wisconsin – where the offensive line is an institution now – it’s hard for fans to get too jazzed up about tremendous line play and methodical wins.
So Auburn isn’t showing off the pyrotechnics like Oklahoma and Ohio State are blasting off. Neither one of those teams has a win as strong as what the Tigers did against the Ducks.
So there aren’t the jaw-dropping NFL skill talents like Alabama and Clemson can boast. Bama’s best win is over Duke, and Clemson got to play Texas A&M at home. The ACC Tigers scored 24 on the Aggies. Auburn went on the road and put up 28 in Kyle Field.
Oklahoma got a national TV spotlight when it played Houston. Tulane took down the Cougars, too. Auburn handed the Green Wave their only loss so far with a strong 24-6 performance.
But now comes the real fun. Auburn does get a few tough games at home – Georgia and Alabama, yippee – and it has to go on the road to face Florida and LSU.
Will the Tigers go 11-1 or better and play for the SEC Championship? Probably not – the schedule is way, way too nasty.
Will they royally screw up someone else’s season and be a tough out each and every week, sort of like 2018 LSU? As the performance in College Station showed, absolutely,
Winners & Losers | The Really Big Thing
Most Overrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: What Is All Means: Week 4
1. What It All Means: Week 4
Our biggest college football offseason fears might not be realized.
Just a month into this whole thing, several real, live, national championship contenders have emerged outside of the amazing top two.
Now, Alabama vs. Clemson for the national championship is hardly a forgone conclusion. Back in June, that didn’t seem possible.
There’s no limping along by anyone in the current top six, or by anyone in the top ten. The mere mortals haven’t been able to touch the top teams, and it’s all setting things up for something potentially special to come over the next few months.
Now, because of what has happened so far, it’s easy to envision someone other than Dabo or Nick getting the confetti shower on January 13th in New Orleans.
Would you fall off your chair if you were told that LSU was going to win the national championship? Would you be totally stunned if you found out that Justin Fields and Ohio State were going to survive Heisman-winner Jalen Hurts and his high-powered Sooners for the CFP title, or vice versa?
Or, how epic will it be if it really is Clemson and Alabama again for the national title after proving themselves worthy – at some point – against LSU, and/or Georgia, and/or Oklahoma, and/or Ohio State, and/or Wisconsin, and/or Auburn, and/or Florida, and/or anyone else able to slip into that group?
Okay, so the season has been a bit chalky so far, but that’s all a positive to crank up the expectations.
Almost no one thought Notre Dame was going to beat Georgia. LSU taking out Texas was hardly a shocker, Clemson beating Texas A&M was expected, and Oklahoma, Ohio State and Alabama have yet to get their hands dirty. But along the way, Wisconsin’s dominance has been a thing. Auburn has been terrific. Florida keeps on winning.
It’s not just the big two and everyone else.
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Coach Hot Seat Rankings | 10 Best Week 4 Games
College Football Playoff Chase: Who’s Still Alive?
Early Week 5 Line Lookahead & Projection
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
