Last week, I spoke about how the top tier of contenders are separating themselves from the field. Well, that’s still true this week, except the field has become far more of a jumble.
Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Auburn, and maybe Wisconsin. Those six teams stand out, and the SEC West trio of Alabama, Auburn, and LSU will be whittled down to just one before the season ends. These teams have clearly separated themselves in terms of on-field performance so far. Who else is even close to approaching these teams right now?
In terms of resume, no one really has a resume yet. For example, Alabama’s four opponents have combined for a .333 win percentage (.455 if we exclude the losses to Alabama). A few other teams have somewhat prettier numbers, but it’s still incredibly early. So maybe this is all moot. Maybe as some of these elite teams move through the season, we’ll see collapses. Anything is possible.
Maybe someone like Penn State or Texas will be able to dethrone Ohio State or Oklahoma. Maybe Florida, Kentucky, or Texas A&M can pull off an upset or two. But right now, the upper echelon of college football has firmly separated itself from those next in line. Will that last? We’ll have to wait and see–and chaos always comes somewhere in this sport–but it seems far more likely, at least this year, that at best we’ll get an upset or two, and not someone else moving up to the ranks of these elite.
Pac 12 on the ropes
It is still far too early in the season to proclaim any Power 5 conference “dead.” The Pac 12 has a bunch of talented teams, all of whom have one loss. If any of Oregon, USC, Utah, Washington, Arizona State, Colorado, and maybe even Washington State run the table, they will very much be in the Playoff picture. And Cal is still undefeated. Any one-loss P5 champion will get serious consideration.
The voters seem to know that the Pac 12 has a lot of pretty good teams, and all of the teams mentioned in the previous paragraph (except Colorado) have already been ranked in the polls at some point this season. The committee is officially not allowed to consider that information, but the members know it and will account for it.
Now, it is very early in the season to have so many teams with a loss, and the Pac 12 does have the problem of playing a higher percentage of teams in-conference than the other P5 conferences (except the Big 12). So the window is small for the Pac 12 moving forward, but it’s very much still there. If any contenders can avoid losing to UCLA in the future, though, the conference office will be much happier.
Next … Other conferences in trouble
The ACC should start getting nervous
The ACC dodged a bullet when Virginia came back late to beat Old Dominion. Still, the conference has no true Playoff contenders other than Clemson. It only has two other ranked teams, and Virginia almost threw that away this week. Wake Forest just snuck into the newest Amway Coaches’ Poll, but it’s hard to see that lasting long.
Will that matter? As of right now, no. As long as Clemson keeps winning, the Tigers will be in the Playoff without any trouble. Lose a game, though, and things get iffy. Clemson will likely have zero ranked wins on the resume by the end of the year. Will that cost the Tigers their hard-earned benefit of the doubt if they drop a game along the way? I don’t know, but the comparisons to the 2015 Ohio State resume are going to be hard to ignore. Ultimately, it will depend on what the rest of the country looks like. But if Clemson loses in the ACC Championship Game, it’s hard to see the Tigers getting in. And if the winning team in that game isn’t an undefeated Virginia team, the ACC likely isn’t getting a team in.
Similar issue for the Big 12
The Big 12 has one outstanding team. Oklahoma looks good, and the defense has actually shown some chops this year. The Big 12 has some ranked teams, and more teams just outside being ranked than the ACC, so the situation isn’t quite as dire. Still, it’s not at all ideal for the conference. The Big 12 plays a full round robin with a championship game on top of that, so losses will come.
As long as Oklahoma runs the table or ends at 12-1 (and it likely doesn’t matter if that loss comes in the regular season or the Big 12 Championship Game rematch), the Sooners should be pretty confident of getting in the Playoff. Drop two, though–and between Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, plus the rematch, that’s not so implausible–and things get very murky.
Like the ACC, the big question for the Big 12 is who is left after the top team. And the answer for the Big 12 isn’t good. Half the conference picked up a loss in nonconference play. Of those who didn’t, Oklahoma State played an awful schedule. Baylor one-upped that by playing the worst nonconference schedule in the country (Baylor’s nonconference opponents, including FCS Stephen F. Austin, are a combined 1-11 so far this year). The resumes will be trouble. If Texas or Kansas State isn’t a one-loss champion, it’s hard to see a Big 12 team other than Oklahoma having the resume to go to the Playoff.
Next … So who is left if contenders fall?
Any other contenders?
First of all, it is unlikely that we will see all three of the Pac 12, ACC, and Big 12 collapse. I doubt we’ll even get two of them. One probably will, as happens most years, but that’s a good thing anyway. And I’m not promising any chaos scenario–the only predictable aspect of college football is its unpredictability. Instead, I’m asking “what if” and giving the likeliest answer.
This is the space where I usually talk about what a Group of 5 team would require to get into the Playoff. We’ve already mentioned how the Power 5 conferences could open up a spot–an obvious prerequisite for a Group of 5 team to even think about having a chance. The problem this year, though, is that no Group of 5 teams meet the other requirements. A Group of 5 team would need, at minimum, a few years of sustained success to earn a reputation, along with a strong nonconference schedule that includes at least one good P5 win.
This would have been the perfect year for UCF. Unfortunately, the Knights fell to Pitt this weekend, which means any Playoff dreams of theirs are done for the year.
Are there any other Group of 5 teams even worth whispering about? Houston had the schedule but hasn’t won games. The only other team with the potential name recognition is Boise State, and the Broncos just don’t have the schedule for it. They are up to No. 15 in this week’s Amway Coaches’ Poll, but there’s clearly going to be a ceiling for them. Maybe if Florida State (who the Broncos beat in Week 1) can upset Clemson we can start this conversation.
And that leaves Notre Dame. The Irish lost a tough one against Georgia, and another loss will certainly eliminate them. However, Irish fans have to like the current makeup of the country and the rest of their schedule. Notre Dame faces a lot of good teams, but no great ones. It will be hard to run the table, but if the Irish can win out then they’ll likely be in good position for another Playoff spot.
Next … What should Ohio State fans watch for next week?
Week 5 Ohio State Implications
The first game to keep an eye on is Penn State’s trip to Maryland on Friday night. Had the Terrapins not dropped a game to Temple, there would actually be a decent case for rooting for Maryland in this one. Honestly, there probably still is. Penn State is likely ranked with an 8-4 season, and definitely at 9-3. If Maryland can win this game, it could well add another ranked team to the schedule–something that could be important, especially if Michigan collapses this year. The Arizona State vs Cal game on Friday night should be a fun one, and a Cal loss doesn’t hurt at this point.
In Big Ten play, Buckeye fans want Wisconsin as strong as possible. That means rooting for the Badgers over Northwestern. Ohio State will play the Wildcats as well this season, but after their start (and especially looking at Stanford since), it might be time to write off Northwestern as a quality opponent this year. Maybe the Wildcats will beat Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota and squeak into a bowl game, but it’s not looking great for them this year. Minnesota beating Purdue would also be helpful for the Big Ten’s overall perceived profile. Since Ohio State doesn’t play either team this year, that one isn’t a big deal, though.
Virginia’s trip to Notre Dame is helpful to the Buckeyes either way. Either Notre Dame is knocked out of the picture, or the ACC takes a big blow. The latter is preferable, but the former isn’t bad for Ohio State either. A similar principle holds true for conference battles (like Auburn vs Mississippi State or Oklahoma State vs Kansas State, to name just two) around the country. Neither outcome is bad for the Buckeyes. But the more undefeated teams that fall, the bigger the gap between the top teams and the “second tier” becomes. And as long as Ohio State is one of those top teams, the Buckeyes want that gap to keep growing.
