Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain in more detail the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post, but in short, the basic premise of the Eliminator is this: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, teams will be eliminated. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
For the first time in three years, we say goodbye to UCF. Over the last two seasons, I had to wait until the final or second-t0-last week of the year to see what type of chaos we got before eliminating the Knights. This year is shaping up to be a potentially chaotic one, but the UCF dream ended against Pitt this week. While there are still several Group of 5 teams that have not yet lost and therefore aren’t eliminated, none of them have the schedule or respect to come close to the Playoff. Boise State is the only school in the latter category, and the Broncos don’t have the schedule this year to get any love from the selection committee. If Florida State upsets Clemson we can revisit this, but until then the Group of 5 dream waits at least another year.
Also, I have to mention one hilarious elimination this week. I essentially never eliminate an SEC West team–especially this early in the season–with only two losses. After all, for Arkansas to win out from here, the Razorbacks would defeat Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and likely Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That’s quite a resume. And yet, it all doesn’t matter. You can’t lose to San Jose State and get in the Playoff.
So, Arkansas, good luck on accomplishing major upsets and the greatest turnaround season that college football has ever seen. But if you do, you still won’t make the Playoff.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 2: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 72 teams. We eliminated 11 more in Week 4, so 61 teams remain in contention. We have now passed the halfway mark in terms of eliminations.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Boston College | Ugly loss to Kansas. On the brink of elimination. |
| Clemson | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Duke | Loss to Alabama isn’t a huge negative. Will face Notre Dame in Week 11. |
| Florida State | Still has two current Top 10 teams on the schedule. |
| Louisville | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t a huge negative. Still faces Clemson. On the brink of elimination. |
| Pittsburgh | Two losses and no real chance for quality wins. Beat UCF in Week 4, but victory likely won’t get the respect it deserves. |
| N.C. State | Bad loss to West Virginia, but not awful. Still faces Clemson. |
| North Carolina | Solid Week 1 win over South Carolina. Two losses, on the brink of elimination. |
| Virginia | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Virginia Tech | Loss to Boston College looks even worse now. Will face Notre Dame in Week 10. |
| Wake Forest | Undefeated after Week 4. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Iowa State | Very close loss to Iowa means no wiggle room |
| Kansas State | Undefeated after Week 4. Solid win over Mississippi State |
| Oklahoma | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Oklahoma State | Tough loss to Texas. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
| TCU | Bad loss to SMU. Will be eliminated with another loss. |
| Texas | Loss to LSU is huge missed opportunity. Faces Oklahoma in Week 7. |
| Texas Tech | Loss to Arizona hurts. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
| West Virginia | Ugly loss to Mizzou in Week 2. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Hung tough against Nebraska. Will likely be eliminated at some point, even without another loss. |
| Indiana | Blowout loss to Ohio State. Will be eliminated with another Big Ten loss. |
| Iowa | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Maryland | Loss to Temple really hurts. Very little room for error in Big Ten. |
| Michigan | Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Will likely be eliminated with another Big Ten loss. |
| Michigan State | Loss to Arizona State hurts, but a very good team when the offense is working. |
| Minnesota | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Nebraska | Loss to Colorado hurts. Will likely be eliminated after this week. |
| Northwestern | Loss to Stanford looks worse and worse. Will likely be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Penn State | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Purdue | Zero room for error. Will likely be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Rutgers | Has impossible schedule. Not a real contender. |
| Wisconsin | Undefeated after Week 4. Impressive win over Michigan. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Bad opening loss to Hawaii. Will likely be eliminated with a second loss. |
| Arizona State | Good win over Michigan State, but tough loss to Colorado. |
| California | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Colorado | Solid win over Nebraska, bad loss to Air Force. |
| Oregon | Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Three more currently-ranked teams remain on the schedule. |
| Oregon State | Not eliminating yet due to high remaining SOS, but elimination is all but guaranteed shortly. |
| USC | Very tough loss to BYU. Good win over Utah. |
| Utah | Win over BYU looks better, but loss to USC makes things tough. |
| Washington | Bad loss to Cal in Week 2. Weak nonconference SOS. No room for error left. |
| Washington State | Brutal loss to UCLA. No room for error left. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Crushed Duke in Week 1. |
| Auburn | Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. |
| Florida | Undefeated after Week 4. |
| Georgia | Huge win over Notre Dame in Week 4. |
| Kentucky | Heartbreaking loss to Florida. Weak nonconference and cross-divisional schedule means no more room for error. |
| LSU | Picked up big win over Texas in Week 4. |
| Mississippi | Lost to Memphis in Week 1 and Cal in Week 4. Has four currently-ranked teams on remaining schedule, all in SEC West. |
| Mississippi State | Tough loss to Kansas State, but strong SOS remaining. |
| Missouri | Been given a bowl ban but under appeal. |
| Texas A&M | Fell to Clemson in Week 2 and Auburn in Week 4, but wasn’t embarrassed in either game. Has three Top 10 teams remaining on schedule. |
Independents: Notre Dame
AAC: Memphis, Navy, SMU
Conference-USA: UAB
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Later in the season, even undefeated Group of 5 teams might be eliminated. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4 |
| Kansas | Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect. |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State |
| South Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Stanford | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Temple | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo |
| Tennessee | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| UCF | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt |
| Vanderbilt | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech | Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) | Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse | Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA | Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
