What happened in the CFP race in 2016? Very simply, there was none. I mean, four teams obviously made the Playoff, and there were all-important games down the stretch. (Who can forget the de facto quarterfinal between Ohio State and Michigan?) But, as the season went on, one thing became very clear. There was no real “second tier” of contenders. The top-level contenders had built up such a huge lead on the field that they all could have survived a loss and still reached the College Football Playoff.
In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Ohio State lost to Penn State, Clemson was stunned by Pitt, and Washington fell to USC. None of that mattered. All three of those teams had such superior resumes that the losses never even knocked them out of the Playoff picture.
Why is this year looking similar? Well, there has been no extreme chaos yet, but Week 3 started to point that way. More importantly, the sheer number of loses stacking up all across the country will keep down quality wins and potential contenders. Are there still a dozen one-loss teams who would be easily in the Playoff if they run the table? Sure. But running the table from a loss this early is very difficult.
Consider this: After just three weeks of the season this year, there are only 24 undefeated P5 teams (including Notre Dame). Last year at this point there were 26 such teams; in 2017 there were 28. And while that might not be a huge difference, also consider the caliber of teams involved. Very few of the top potential challengers to the elite teams have already suffered a loss or exposed major flaws. That can’t last. Anyone undefeated can still turn things around, but it doesn’t look great.
Next … Meet the teams separating themselves
Who are the contenders?
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are the utterly dominant teams right now. Maybe LSU is up there with them (but the defense looks suspect early). After that, everyone has shown major flaws. Auburn has a good win, but has looked vulnerable against weaker competition since.
Michigan State has an elite defense and a passable offense, now, but an inability to finish means the Spartans have a loss already. The Maryland hype train crashed to a halt against Temple. Penn State dominated Pitt statistically but probably should have lost. Oregon, Texas, and Texas A&M already have losses. And the list goes on.
Sure, there are some relatively good teams out there that haven’t been challenged yet. Maybe Notre Dame, Utah, Wisconsin, and a few others will show themselves to be up there with the top teams as the season goes on. It’s still a long season, and it’s very premature to call this only a five-team race.
But I can’t help but thinking back to 2016 when I look at this season right now. That year, five teams basically built up a one-game lead on the entire field. Anything can happen, but I’m looking at the schedules and see it happening again. Who will step up to stop any of these teams? Based on the early weeks of the season, it’s hard to expect anyone to.
Next … Implications with the Big Ten
Big Ten roundup
This was a bad week for the Big Ten, but it could have been much worse. Purdue was run down by TCU, which shouldn’t have been unexpected after the loss to Nevada (and seeing that Nevada really isn’t good). The Boilermakers look like the bottom of the Big Ten West now. If they start winning conference games, it will make the whole conference look worse.
The same is, as expected, true of Illinois. The Illini almost made it through nonconference play unscathed, but couldn’t survive against mighty Eastern Michigan.
And, of course, Maryland came crashing down to earth. That, combined with Michigan State’s loss to Arizona State, very likely stops the Big Ten East from being the best division in the country. That was a definite possibility last week. Now, though, it looks very unlikely–unless the SEC West can suffer a similar rough week at some later point.
Still, it could have been much worse. Penn State survived a tough game against Pitt. A loss there would have been a disaster. Iowa picked up a good win over Iowa State, and Minnesota survived another crazy game. The Golden Gophers could definitely be 0-3 right now, but they got through nonconference play at 3-0.
Next … Implications across the nation
Around the country
The Pac 12’s woes continue with USC’s loss to BYU. It could have been even worse if Washington State hadn’t come back against Houston, but it’s only been three weeks and the conference is almost out of Playoff contenders. After just three games, the Pac 12 has four undefeated teams.
Arizona State has, by far, the best win of the bunch. It’s hard to take the Sun Devils too seriously as a contender yet, but they may very well be the conference’s best shot at the CFP. The Pac 12 has to thank its lucky stars that Cal survived North Texas’ comeback bid. A loss there would have been a disaster.
The SEC picked up another loss with Mississippi State falling to Kansas State. Florida also did not look good against Kentcuy. That doesn’t really matter, though. The teams at the very top are considered elite, and as long as they don’t lose games to anyone else, they’ll have their paths to the Playoff.
Maybe Texas A&M or Mississippi State can pull off an upset or two and throw off the balance. But right now, there’s a clump of teams–Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and maybe Auburn–that will get a team (maybe two) into the Playoff as long as they don’t lose to any outside teams.
Next … How it all impacts Ohio State
Week 4 Ohio State Implications
Week 4 is our first real blockbuster week of the season, and it is full of games that affect everyone, including Ohio State. Friday night will see Utah travel to USC. A Trojans win will be another serious blow to the Pac 12’s Playoff hopes, while a Utes win will bring up recollections of 2004 and 2008 for fans. It’s a long season, though, and the Utes have a lot of tough conference games left.
And on Saturday, BYU gets a chance to take down another Pac 12 contender when the Cougars host Washington. Similarly, Cal visits Ole Miss. Losses by Utah, Washington, and Cal would put the conference on the ropes in the Playoff race, after just four weeks. And UCLA taking out Washington State would be an absolute disaster for the Pac 12.
Also on Friday night, Boise State and Air Force will face off in a potentially pivotal in the Group of 5 at-large race. That almost certainly won’t matter to the Buckeyes, but it’s fun to track anyway. UCF’s game against Pitt, meanwhile, will also affect the Big Ten. Pitt kept the game against Penn State very close. If the Knights can blow out Pitt, it will be a strong case in UCF’s favor–and against Penn State.
There are some major Big Ten games, as well. Ohio State has no particular rooting interest in them yet, though Michigan State beating Northwestern is probably better long-term.
Similarly, there’s no way to know whether Buckeye fans want Notre Dame or Georgia to win that game Saturday night. Ohio State just wants the winner of that game to lose at least one down the stretch. Who will it be? It’s impossible to know yet, though looking at the schedules, Notre Dame has more tough games upcoming, so it might be worth rooting for the Irish at this point.
Going back to what we started with, the Buckeyes are in an elite cadre of teams that are starting to build a lead on the whole college football field. As long as it doesn’t affect Ohio State, general chaos is good. The more “second tier” teams lose, the more wiggle room Ohio State gets with a loss.
