Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain in more detail the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post, but in short, the basic premise of the Eliminator is this: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, teams will be eliminated. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
Weeks 3 and 4 are often slow ones for eliminations. Most of the Group of 5 teams have been eliminated already, and it’s still too early to really start eliminating Power 5 teams. Many P5 teams are getting closer to elimination, but there are still too many games left, so almost everyone has a path to the Playoff, even if it’s highly unlikely.
Except for Georgia Tech. This seems like a great time to mention an Eliminator rule of mine: A loss to an FCS team eliminates you. It doesn’t matter how good a team is; the selection committee will not consider a team with an FCS loss as one of the four best in FBS. (We can discuss a possible exception if North Dakota State beats Oregon next year, but that would be the only one.)
Also, nonconference losses are stacking up in the Pac 12 and ACC. The Pac 12 does currently have six ranked teams in both the AP and Amway Coaches’ Polls, but it’s hard to know if that will last. Still, since we don’t know, we can’t eliminate teams yet. Maybe so many ranked teams will earn the conference champion some eventual benefit of the doubt. Maybe not. But as long as it’s a maybe, teams aren’t eliminated. If we ever see that benefit of the doubt go away, though, Pac 12 teams will be eliminated very quickly–as will ACC teams not named Clemson.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 2: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 80 teams. We eliminated eight in Week 3, so 72 teams remain in contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Boston College | Ugly loss to Kansas. On the brink of elimination. |
| Clemson | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Duke | Loss to Alabama isn’t a huge negative. Will face Notre Dame in Week 11. |
| Florida State | Still has two current Top 10 teams on the schedule. |
| Louisville | Loss to Notre Dame isn’t a huge negative. Still faces Clemson. |
| Pittsburgh | Two losses and no real chance for quality wins. Faces UCF in Week 4, but victory wouldn’t get the respect it likely deserves. |
| N.C. State | Bad loss to West Virginia, but not awful. Still faces Clemson. |
| North Carolina | Solid Week 1 win over South Carolina, heartbreaking loss in Week 3. |
| Virginia | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Virginia Tech | Loss to Boston College looks even worse now. Will face Notre Dame in Week 10. |
| Wake Forest | Undefeated after Week 3. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Iowa State | Very close loss to Iowa means no wiggle room |
| Kansas | Ugly loss to Coastal Carolina. |
| Kansas State | Undefeated after Week 3. Solid win over Mississippi State |
| Oklahoma | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Oklahoma State | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| TCU | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Texas | Loss to LSU is huge missed opportunity. Faces Oklahoma in Week 7. |
| Texas Tech | Loss to Arizona |
| West Virginia | Ugly loss to Mizzou in Week 2. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Bad loss to Eastern Michigan. Will likely be eliminated with another loss. |
| Indiana | Blowout loss to Ohio State. Will be eliminated with another Big Ten loss. |
| Iowa | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Maryland | Loss to Temple really hurts. Very little room for error in Big Ten. |
| Michigan | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Michigan State | Loss to Arizona State hurts. |
| Minnesota | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Nebraska | Loss to Colorado hurts. |
| Northwestern | Loss to Stanford looks worse and worse. Little room for error now. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Penn State | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Purdue | Zero room for error. Will likely be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Rutgers | Has impossible schedule. Not a real contender. |
| Wisconsin | Undefeated after Week 3. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Bad opening loss to Hawaii. Will likely be eliminated with a second loss. |
| Arizona State | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| California | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Colorado | Good win over Nebraska, bad loss to Air Force. |
| Oregon | Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. 4 more currently-ranked teams remain on the schedule. |
| Oregon State | Not eliminating yet due to high remaining SOS, but elimination is all but guaranteed shortly. |
| Stanford | Two bad losses, but five more ranked teams on schedule. |
| USC | Very tough loss to BYU. |
| Utah | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Washington | Bad loss to Cal in Week 2. Weak nonconference SOS. No room for error left. |
| Washington State | Undefeated after Week 3. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Crushed Duke in Week 1. |
| Arkansas | Has not looked great. Elimination won’t come for a few weeks with weak schedule, but looks certain. |
| Auburn | Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. |
| Florida | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Georgia | Undefeated after Week 3. |
| Kentucky | Heartbreaking loss to Florida. Weak nonconference and cross-divisional schedule means no more room for error. |
| LSU | Picked up big win over Texas in Week 3. |
| Mississippi | Lost to Memphis in Week 1. Has four currently-ranked teams on remaining schedule, all in SEC West. |
| Mississippi State | Tough loss to Kansas State, but strong SOS remaining. |
| Missouri | Been given a bowl ban but under appeal. |
| South Carolina | Started 1-2. Has 4 current Top 10 teams on remaining schedule. |
| Tennessee | Started 0-2. Has 3 current Top 10 teams on remaining schedule. Will be eliminated with another loss. |
| Texas A&M | Fell to Clemson in Week 2, but wasn’t embarrassed. Has four Top 10 teams remaining on schedule. |
| Vanderbilt | Not yet eliminated but should be with 0-2 start. Will be eliminated unless Vandy upsets LSU in Week 4. |
Independents: Notre Dame
AAC: Memphis, Navy, SMU, Temple, UCF
Conference-USA: UAB
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: Air Force, Boise State, San Diego State, Wyoming
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Later in the season, even undefeated Group of 5 teams might be eliminated. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech | Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) | Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse | Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA | Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with Week 2 loss toTulane |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
