Welcome to the second-to-last set of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.
I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.
My final set of bowl projections will come out on Saturday night, right after the games end. Those might look very different than these, depending on what happens Saturday. (For example, there are currently two SEC teams in the Playoff. That will almost certainly no longer be true if LSU beats Georgia.)
Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences often have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.
As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections on Saturday night will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl and that the Bahamas Bowl will be Buffalo against Charlotte.)
79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.
So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:
College Football Playoff
| Peach Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM | LSU | vs | Clemson |
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM | Ohio State | vs | Georgia |
This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so Ohio State will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.
The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Georgia will likely be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.
Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls
New Years’ Six Bowl Games
| Cotton Bowl Classic | Sat, Dec 28, Noon | Baylor | vs | Memphis |
| Orange Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 8:00 PM | Virginia | vs | Penn State |
| Rose Bowl Game | Wed, Jan 1, 5:00 PM | Wisconsin | vs | Utah |
| Sugar Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 8:45 PM | Florida | vs | Oklahoma |
The NY6 bowls are straightforward enough. The Rose Bowl gets the highest teams from the Big Ten and Pac 12, while the Sugar Bowl gets the same from the SEC and Big 12.
The ACC finally has a second ranked team, so we’ll put Virginia Tech into the Orange Bowl. The other Orange Bowl slot goes to the highest-ranked remaining Big Ten or SEC team, which is currently Penn State.
The highest remaining at-large is Baylor, and the Bears face the current highest-ranked Group of 5 team, Memphis.
Keep in mind, again, that this is based on current rankings. If Georgia loses to LSU and falls out of the Playoff, that will have a trickle effect through every NY6 Bowl (except the Rose Bowl), which will trickle on through the rest of the bowls.
Other Big Ten Bowl Games
| Quick Lane Bowl | Thu, Dec 26, 8:00 PM | Michigan State | vs | Boston College |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 3:20 PM | Indiana | vs | Florida State |
| Holiday Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 8:00 PM | Iowa | vs | USC |
| Redbox Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | Illinois | vs | Arizona State |
| Outback Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 1:00 PM | Minnesota | vs | Kentucky |
| Gator Bowl | Thu, Jan 2, 7:00 PM | Michigan | vs | Auburn |
I have another post detailing all the potential Big Ten bowl games. This is the current scenario, which has both Wisconsin and Penn State in New Years’ Six Bowl games. Depending on how things break this weekend, that could definitely change.
Next… All other bowl games
2019-2020 Bowl Games
| Bahamas Bowl | Fri, Dec 20, 2:00 PM | Charlotte | vs | Buffalo |
| Frisco Bowl | Fri, Dec 20, 7:30 PM | Temple | vs | UAB |
| New Mexico Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 2:00 PM | FIU | vs | Nevada |
| Cure Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 2:30 PM | Liberty | vs | Georgia Southern |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 3:30 PM | Ohio | vs | Marshall |
| Camellia Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 5:30 PM | Western Michigan | vs | Georgia State |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 7:30 PM | Washington | vs | Boise State |
| New Orleans Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 9:00 PM | Louisiana Tech | vs | Appalachian State |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Mon, Dec 23, 2:30 PM | FAU | vs | UCF |
| Hawai’i Bowl | Tue, Dec 24, 8:00 PM | BYU | vs | Hawaii |
| Independence Bowl | Thu, Dec 26, 4:00 PM | Western Kentucky | vs | North Carolina |
| Military Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, Noon | Navy | vs | North Carolina |
| Texas Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 6:45 PM | Iowa State | vs | Tennessee |
| Cheez-It Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 10:15 PM | Texas | vs | Washington State |
| Camping World Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, Noon | Kansas State | vs | Virginia Tech |
| First Responder Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | Kent State | vs | Southern Miss |
| Music City Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | Texas A&M | vs | Pittsburgh |
| Belk Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, Noon | Mississippi State | vs | Louisville |
| Sun Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 2:00 PM | California | vs | Wake Forest |
| Liberty Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 3:45 PM | Texas | vs | Cincinnati |
| Arizona Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 4:30 PM | Wyoming | vs | Tulane |
| Alamo Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 7:30 PM | Oregon | vs | Oklahoma State |
| Citrus Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 1:00 PM | Notre Dame | vs | Alabama |
| Birmingham Bowl | Thu, Jan 2, 3:00 PM | Toledo | vs | SMU |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | Fri, Jan 3, 3:30 PM | Miami (OH) | vs | Utah State |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Sat, Jan 4, 11;30 AM | Air Force | vs | Arkansas State |
| LendingTree Bowl | Mon, Jan 6, 7:30 PM | Miami (OH) | vs | Louisiana |
One of the toughest things with this bowl lineup is that BYU took over the Mountain West’s Hawaii Bowl slot. That means that Hawaii will have to travel to the mainland to compete in its bowl game. For that to happen, Hawaii will need a decently high-profile game. Because there aren’t any great options for that, I’m leaving Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl, and the AAC gets a team in the Liberty Bowl to compensate for that. There are a dozen ways that the Hawaii mess can be resolved, but this is the best one for now.
I do have to point out another important item. ESPN has the right to shuffle around bowl teams between games that ESPN owns. The network has done this before, though it is relatively rare. It might make sense to do so in order to facilitate a better game for Hawaii, or maybe keep Hawaii on the Islands.
A great example where this might occur is with Boise State. The Mountain West and ESPN would love to see a 12-1 Boise State team get a better matchup than a middle-of-the-pack Pac 12 team. I have a feeling that an Armed Forces Bowl matchup with Appalachian State might be a good option there, as it would also allow the New Orleans Bowl to get a coveted Louisiana vs Louisiana Tech matchup. Still, I think that a Boise State vs Washington matchup for Chris Petersen’s (potentially) final game would be an equally acceptable matchup, and it’s much simpler to set up.
Next… What are the bowl pools?
ACC
The ACC has a “Tier I” bowl pool consisting of the Sun, Belk, Music City, and Pinstripe Bowls. After Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are selected for the Citrus and Camping World Bowls, the next group of four teams, as of now, will be Pitt, Wake Forest, Louisville, and … someone. Seriously, any of the ACC’s 6-6 teams could really be that final team. For now I’m giving that to Florida State, but it could be anyone. Pitt played in the Sun Bowl last year, so don’t expect a repeat of that.
Big Ten
The Big Ten bowl situation is complicated. In essence, the league works with all of its bowls to secure the best possible destination. However, the contracts stipulate that, for the main Big Ten bowls, that each bowl needs at least five different teams in six years. This is the sixth and final year of these contracts. The Outback Bowl is the only bowl to not meet that stipulation yet. Therefore, the Outback Bowl cannot host Iowa, Wisconsin, or Michigan this year. I explain, in detail, all of the issues for the selections for every Big Ten bowl in another post.
SEC
The SEC has a pool of six bowls. Those will be Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi State for the Outback, Gator, Music City, Texas, Belk, and Liberty Bowls. Because of Missouri’s pending bowl ban, the weakness of the SEC’s bottom teams this year (and with four SEC teams currently in NY6 slots), there will only be four teams for this pool of six bowls. Therefore, the Liberty and Texas Bowls will not get an SEC team.
