Four teams are still vying for the two spots in the Championship game, with San Diego State having the inside track. A win for the Aztecs will ensure that they are hosting.
That, coupled with a Boise State win, would set the table for a rematch of the game the Aztecs won a couple of weeks ago. Should the Aggies or Lobos pull upsets, things could get interesting.
The final week of the regular season brings plenty of rivalry and trophy games as well.
The MW has seven teams bowl-eligible entering week 14, and those seven will make up the conference’s bowl roster.
It is a full slate this weekend with three games on Friday and three on Saturday.
Here is a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams
Friday, November 28
12:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Air Force -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5
The Rams enter the game having dropped their last five contests, while the Falcons also are on a two-game slide.The Falcons have some positive momentum working for them, however.
Air Force has held four of the last five opponents to 21 points or less, with the lone outlier being the 26 they allowed at UConn.
So, the Falcons’ defense is starting to settle in a bit after a rough start to the season. The one constant for Air Force has been the ground game on offense.
Year in and year out, they are among the best in the nation at moving the ball on the ground. This season has been no different as the Falcons are fifth in the nation running the ball for 256.5 yards per game.
Colorado State has been among the worst at defending the run, giving up 194.8 yards per game and ranking 123rd in the nation. If the Rams can’t find a way to slow down Air Force on the ground, it will be a long day.
With the Air Force defense stepping up recently and the Rams’ inability to stop teams on the ground, the Ram-Falcon Trophy heads to Colorado Springs with a win for the Falcons
Against the spread: Air Force
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Air Force
San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos
Friday, November 28
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: San Diego State -1.5
Over/Under: 41.5
The combined winning percentage of the Lobos and Aztecs this season is .773, and that makes for a fun one to end the regular season.
It also happens to be a huge one in deciding who plays for the conference crown next week. For the Aztecs, it is really simple: Win this one, and they host next week.
One would also think the winner of this one also has the coach of the year in the MW. Both Jason Eck and Sean Lewis have done fantastic work this season with their respective programs.
The obvious key to watch for in this one is the Aztec defense against the Lobo offense, specifically in the run game. SDSU has one of the most dominant defenses in the nation and has limited foes to 103.2 yards per game, 16th 16th-best in the country.
New Mexico will need to find a way to move the ball on the ground to get the win at home. If the Lobos can establish a running game early, it will open things up on offense. It will also help to keep things manageable on third downs.
The Aztecs are 18th in the nation in third-down defense, and if the Lobos are to sustain some drives on offense, they will need to pick up conversions.
Third downs when the Aztecs have the ball, however, could be the true deciding factor in this contest. The Aztecs are among the worst in the nation in converting on third downs, with a conversion rate of just 30.9% to rank 129th in the nation.
In the two losses for SDSU, they converted on just four of 27 third downs combined. New Mexico has been solid at getting opponents off the field on the money down, and they will need to continue that effectiveness in this one.
The Lobos have been very good at stopping the run, limiting opponents to 106.2 yards per game, 21st-best in the nation and trailing only the Aztecs in the MW.
The Lobos have been terrible against the pass, but San Diego State has been equally as bad throwing the football this season.
Something’s got to give in this matchup of strengths against strengths, and I think the Aztecs escape with a narrow win behind a huge effort from Lucky Suton.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies
Friday, November 28
1:00 PM PT, CBS
Line: Boise State –3.5
Over/Under: 55.5
An upset at the hands of the Aggies would make any talk of tie-breaking scenarios moot.
The Broncos will most likely need to get the win with Max Cutforth still under center. Maddux Madsen seems to be making strides in his return from a leg injury, but is still a long shot to see action this Friday.
Last week, Cutforth had his best outing in the win over Colorado State as the offense opened things up in the passing game a bit.
Look for Boise State to again throw the ball against an Aggie defense that has not been great. USU has had a hard time stopping teams from running or passing, and as long as the Broncos can avoid turnovers, they should be able to score points.
Utah State has been very successful throwing the football, but will be challenged this week by the Broncos pass defense. The Broncos are limiting opponents to 165.5 passing yards per game, the 11th-best passing defense in the nation.
The Aggies will need to run the ball effectively to get the win. USU has run for 191.3 yards per win this season while slipping to 136.6 yards on the ground in the five losses.
Last week, the Aggies ran for 226 yards on 47 carries against Fresno State while only attempting 32 passes. Look for the Aggies to again commit to the ground game, and for Bryson Barnes to once again make plays with his legs as the Aggies pull off the upset.
Against the spread: Utah State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Utah State
UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, November 29
6:00 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: UNLV –8.5
Over/Under: 53.5
And you better believe nothing would salvage a season more for this Wolf Pack squad than beating their bitter rivals and denying them a shot at the title in the process.
Winning back The Fremont Cannon and wrecking the Rebels Championship hopes will require Nevada to produce on the offensive end.
The Rebels have the highest scoring offense in the Mountain West, averaging 36.7 points per game. Nevada has struggled to score points this year, averaging just 17.6 per ball game—and that includes their 55-point outburst against San Jose State two weeks ago.
UNLV’s defense has hardly been dominant this season, but the Rebels have looked stouter than that Spartan squad, if only slightly.
The Rebels come in on a three-game winning streak of their own, and the defense stepped up in a big way against Hawaii last week. UNLV limited the Warriors to just 231 yards of offense, their best defensive output of the season by a good margin.
Nevada’s defense kept the potent passing attack of San Jose State in check two weeks ago and shut down Wyoming completely last week. Look for the Rebels to lean heavily on the ground attack.
The Rebels have had 25 runs this season covering 20+ scrimmage yards, the ninth-most in the nation. Jai’Den Thomas has produced 10 of those while Anthony Colandrea has 9 of those explosive runs.
Expect both of them to find space to run, and look for Thomas in particular to bust of a few long ones. Nevada will need to find a way to bottle them up.
If the Rebels can produce three to five of those explosive plays on the ground, Nevada could have a hard time keeping up. UNVL win and the Rebels pull away in the second half.
Against the spread: UNLV
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday, November 29
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Fresno State –2.5
Over/Under: 47.5
The Bulldogs have found more success on the field in 2025 but still have to be reeling from a few squandered opportunities to play for a title in their final season in the MW. Most notably, a blowout loss at Colorado State and last week’s home loss to Utah State.
Still, this final meeting as conference rivals carries a lot of weight for both sides.
The Spartans offense has been explosive this season, but the defense has been dreadful. Fresno State has a versatile offense and an opportunistic defense. Look for both of those to give the edge to the Bulldogs.
Rayshon Luke is second in the conference and 22nd in the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging 111.3 per game. The back leads the Bulldogs in rushing and is fourth in receiving.
Look for Luke to find a lot of yardage in this one. Bryson Donelson also could be tough for the Spartans to stop out of the backfield.
San Jose State has one of the best passing attacks in the country but has been limited to just 140 yards per game in the last two. The Spartans have thrown eight interceptions during their current three-game losing streak.
They cannot afford another bad outing against a Bulldogs unit that is 10th in the nation with 19 interceptions this season.
Fresno State wins their final regular-season MW game while the Spartans’ season comes to an end.
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State
Wyoming Cowboys at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, November 29
8:00 PM PT, Spectrum
Line: Hawai’i –9.5
Over/Under: 44.5
The teams have had vastly different outcomes this season with UW entering with a 4-7 mark while UH has had a lot of success this season and sit 7-4 entering the final week of the regular season.
The Rainbow Warriors have seen a drastic improvement this season on the defensive side of the football. UH has held opponents to just 128.4 yards rushing in their seven wins and just 187.4 through the air in the wins.
Wyoming always plays solid defense, but the offense is a challenge more often than not. If the Cowboys hope to finish the season on a high note, then they will need to produce on the ground. That could be difficult if leading rusher Samuel Harris is unable to go.
The freshman running back sensation suffered a leg injury in the first half last week, and as of publication, his status for the finale is unknown. However, the sight of him on crutches in the second half last week was not promising.
Sam Scott stepped in and produced at 4.4 yards per carry, and the Cowboys will need every bit of that this week.
Defensively, the Cowboys are 10th in the nation against the pass, allowing just 165.2 yards per game. That pass defense will make things difficult on Micah Alejado and the UH passing game.
The freshman QB has thrown 19 touchdows this season, tying the single season mark for a freshman with his current head coach. Alejado has directed the 13th-most potent passing offense this season.
If the Warriors can move the ball through the air, they could make short work of the Cowboys. The UH ground attack ranks 127th in the nation so if the Cowboys can slow things down through the air they can spring the upset.
Hawaii has won each of their last seven Senior Nights and 12 of the last 13. That successful trend continues this year as UH wins their eighth game of the season.
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i
