Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 11 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)
Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 11 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you (plus one extra). We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.
How this works
Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.
Quality of wins
For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.
I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.
The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.
Offensive and defensive performance
I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.
SOS range
The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.
Next… Teams that control their own destinies
Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| LSU | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 4-50 | 6 | 7.7 (3) | 5.2 (41) |
LSU’s resume is excellent. Solid SOS, four Top 40 wins, and a whopping six wins over teams with winning records. The SOS numbers took a hit this week after playing Arkansas (except in Massey, who loves LSU’s schedule), but they will skyrocket back up after playing Texas A&M and Georgia. The defensive numbers could use a bit more improvement, but LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is likely in with one loss, let alone undefeated.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 15-45 | 6 | 6.9 (6) | 3.3 (1) |
The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. The SOS numbers are strong, as are the six wins over teams with winning records. This resume is just behind LSU’s right now, but there’s no one else close to it. The Tigers and Buckeyes are very clearly a cut above the rest of the country right now.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Clemson | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 60-90 | 4 | 7.1 (4) | 3.6 (2) |
Clemson’s resume is improving, but still awful by usual Playoff standards. Louisville and Wake Forest are both currently Top 40 wins, though a loss by either this weekend would change that. This resume has an ugly five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better over the next two weeks. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team and why the Tigers are likely to go 13-0.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Georgia | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 15-30 | 6 | 6.0 (36) | 4.1 (4) |
This resume is excellent, and keeps getting better. The loss to South Carolina is bad, but is easily outweighed by a resume that is really only matched by LSU’s and Ohio State’s. It makes perfect sense that the committee ranked Georgia at No. 4, and the Bulldogs are a Playoff lock if they can win out. If we get a bit of chaos, Georgia should be considered for the No. 4 spot for keeping it close against LSU. No other potential bubble team has a collection of wins this good.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 50-95 | 3 | 6.3 (19) | 4.5 (12) |
The stats on this resume will surprise some, especially with how close Minnesota’s early-season games were. But this is a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Only one win against Top 40 teams means there is no meat here, but if the Gophers win out that would add wins over Wisconsin and either Ohio State or Penn State. The SOS numbers are rapidly rising, and will continue to do so. This isn’t a Playoff resume yet, but it will be if Minnesota can go 12-1.
Next… Teams that are on the bubble
On the Bubble:
These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oklahoma | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 20-75 | 3 | 8.1 (1) | 5.1 (36) |
It’s easy to understand why the committee doesn’t like Oklahoma. However, those proclaiming that Oklahoma is behind a 12-1 Pac 12 champion are overstating the case. The defense has decent numbers, the SOS numbers are improving, and the Sooners could have four ranked wins (and five Top 40 wins) when all is said and done. That’s better than what Utah is bringing to the table. Right now, Oklahoma is held back by barely beating teams. We’ll see if that lasts, though. The committee finally stopped holding it against Baylor this week.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Utah | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7-0 | 3-0 | 40-80 | 5 | 6.6 (10) | 4.2 (6) |
This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12, and it won’t get much better over next week. Utah is winning games convincingly, and the metrics reflect that, but I’m looking at this resume and have zero idea why or how the Utes are ranked ahead of Minnesota. Why is this resume even ahead of Oklahoma’s? If you compare 12-1 Utah to 11-1 Alabama, what’s Utah’s argument? That it’s beating up on a worse schedule in almost-comparable fashion?
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 40-100 | 3 | 7.7 (2) | 4.7 (17) |
This resume is ugly. The one decent win is over Texas A&M, which fell out of the polls this week. The only other teams with winning records that Alabama has beaten are Tennessee and Southern Miss. Duke has fallen into cupcake range with a 4-7 record against a weak schedule. Alabama’s metrics aren’t anywhere near the usual dominant numbers, though the offense is potent. The Crimson Tide are getting some major benefit of the doubt for blowing out bad teams, and likely for the Alabama brand and recent success. If we’re judging this resume on resume alone, there’s not much here.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Baylor | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 30-80 | 3 | 6.3 (23) | 4.6 (14) |
Baylor fans have a bit of a complaint that the Bears aren’t respected enough for their two ranked wins. There’s something to that. Add to that the fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams and this seems like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. The very fact that Baylor can play five Top 40 teams and still not crack the Top 40 in any SOS metric tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. On pure resume, this looks like a decent one-loss picture. But the Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.
Next… Teams that are still alive, but barely
Need help:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Wisconsin | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 15-45 | 3 | 6.3 (2) | 4.4 (8) |
The Badgers aren’t in a terrible position. The loss to Illinois looks more acceptable each week. They got a lot of help from Iowa beating Minnesota, which both boosted the value of the Iowa win and gives the Badgers a shot. If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers could have four ranked wins. That will be decent, though the win over Ohio State would have to be convincing–otherwise the Badgers (at 11-2) probably wouldn’t be able to even jump the Buckeyes. (It would also help Wisconsin if Michigan beats Ohio State, both to hurt the Buckeyes’ resume and to add even more value to the win over Michigan.)
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Oregon | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 20-55 | 5 | 6.4 (14) | 4.6 (16) |
This is a bit painful. There’s not much here to hang a Playoff resume on, especially with two losses. Oregon needs a miracle, and to blow out Utah convincingly if the Utes reach the Pac 12 Championship Game.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS Range |
Wins over
+.500 |
Off YPP
(rank) |
Def YPP
(rank) |
| Michigan | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 10-25 | 4 | 5.7 (57) | 4.0 (3) |
I have eliminated Michigan, but I’m concerned I may have been a drop too early on that. If the Wolverines win out, they would have five solid wins, including one over Ohio State. The SOS numbers would be elite, as is the defense. If we get some real chaos, like two-loss teams winning both the Big 12 and the Pac 12, why wouldn’t Michigan be a contender? Because Penn State is in front of the Wolverines with a head-to-head win? This resume would be exceptionally strong. The blowout nature of the Wisconsin loss is the reason I eliminated Michigan, but we’ve seen a team with a similar loss reach the Playoff (2017 Georgia). It would take a lot of help, but Michigan’s resume could be very competitive–if it can beat Ohio State.
