A wild college football weekend saw the second Iron Bowl win by Auburn in the last three years. This time, though, it means that we will have a College Football Playoff without Alabama for the first time ever. We also saw Ohio State once again blow out a Michigan team expected to be competitive.
So, where does this leave us in the College Football race? We have five potentially meaningful games next week, though depending on how the other games go, the ACC Championship Game might not mean much. Let’s break down the stakes in each of the conference championship games. But first, let’s talk about what makes life simple for the committee.
The chalk scenario
There is only one real case of chalk this upcoming week. That would be championship game wins by Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson. As long as that happens, three Playoff spots are locked up. If Oregon wins, then the Big 12 champion is the fourth team. If Utah beats Oregon (especially if it’s by a wide margin), then we’ll have a two-team bubble of Utah and the Big 12 champion. The second case might be a tough choice for the committee, but at least it’s simple, clear-cut, and involves picking only one out of two teams. Any other scenario, and the committee is stuck sifting out three or more teams for at least the final two spots. That could be messy in a lot of ways, though considering Ohio State and LSU as virtual locks might make things easier. We can’t say any of that for sure until we see the games, though.
Next… The five conference championship games
Let’s break down all five of this week’s Power 5 CCGs, and look at the Playoff impact of each.
ACC: Clemson vs Virginia
This game likely means nothing for Virginia, who should be going to the Orange Bowl no matter what. For Clemson, though, the Tigers need a win to feel safe about reaching the Playoff. There’s a chance Clemson gets in with a loss, but with no wins of any real quality whatsoever, the Tigers will feel very nervous if Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game or Georgia wins the SEC. If that happens, we would likely have four conference champions with one loss or fewer. Also, If both LSU and Clemson are 12-1, LSU easily stays ahead. Since the ACC Championship Game is Saturday night, Clemson will know if it’s locked in or potentially on the bubble before its game starts.
Big Ten: Ohio State vs Wisconsin
The Buckeyes are a virtual lock, though if both Wisconsin and Georgia win there could be a tiny bit of sweating. Still, the Buckeyes should feel pretty safely in the Playoff right now. The real wild card is Wisconsin. The Badgers could have a better resume than 12-1 Clemson, and for sure would be better than 11-2 Oregon. Can the Big Ten get two teams in if Clemson loses? Probably not, but the committee would have to put a team with zero ranked wins into the Playoff for the first time in CFP history. That’s not so easy to do. (If Georgia beats LSU, the point is moot, as both of those teams get in over both Clemson and Wisconsin.)
Big 12: Baylor vs Oklahoma
The winner is in good stead. It’s far from a Playoff lock–both Baylor and Oklahoma would have some concerns about jumping Utah, and would need LSU to beat Georgia. If we get the “chalk” case described above, plus an Oregon win, though, the Big 12 champion should be safely in the Playoff. Anything else, and there will be some nerves on Sunday.
Pac 12: Oregon vs Utah
I haven’t officially eliminated Oregon yet, but there’s really no reason for it. Oregon would need LSU to beat Georgia handily and for Clemson to lose handily. Then the Ducks have to hope that the committee will take an 11-2 Oregon team with two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with none. The Pac 12 is basically done with an Oregon win. If Utah wins, though, the Utes are in decent position. The win will have to be convincing to keep its position over the Big 12 champ, and it probably helps if Oklahoma is the team to win that game. Like everyone else, Utah is in trouble if Georgia beats LSU.
SEC: LSU vs Georgia
This is probably very simple. LSU is in with a win. Georgia is likely out with a loss, though it’s possible–if the game is very close–that the committee would consider an 11-2 Georgia team over a 12-1 Clemson team. If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs are in. LSU is likely in as well in that case, though things could get a little nervous there, especially if Baylor blows out Oklahoma. LSU would have the superior regardless, but leaving out a one-loss P5 champ (whose only loss is a tight game against a Top 10 team) would be a new precedent for the committee. It will probably be set, but there would be reason to be concerned.
Next… The Rose Bowl picture, and other NY6 Bowls
Who goes to the Rose Bowl?
The Pac 12 picture for the Rose Bowl is actually pretty simple. Oregon is going to the Rose Bowl with a win. If Utah wins and reaches the Playoff, then Oregon is also in the Rose Bowl. If Utah wins but doesn’t reach the Playoff, then Utah will play in its first Rose Bowl in program history.
For the Big Ten, it’s complicated. Assuming Ohio State wins this week, the Rose Bowl will have three potential teams to choose from. Since the Rose Bowl is a “contract bowl,” it officially gets to pick its participants. When relevant, the contract bowls this cycle have always gone with the committee’s rankings, though there haven’t really been any tough choices yet. Presumably, the Rose Bowl will stick with whichever school between Penn State and Wisconsin is ranked higher next week. If the Nittany Lions are higher this week, consider the spot all but locked up. If Wisconsin is higher, we’ll have to wait a week and see how close the Big Ten Championship Game is before having any idea.
One thing can throw a wrench in all of this, though. There is likely a slight chance that the Rose Bowl will jump at the opportunity to take Minnesota for the first time since the 1962 season. It will be a consideration, especially if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State again. If the Rose Bowl is picking between Penn State and Minnesota, why not go with the school that won the head-to-head matchup and has waited more than half a century to visit Pasadena?
And, of course, if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers will play in the Rose Bowl. If Wisconsin sneaks its way into the Playoff (and assuming Ohio State gets in too), then the Rose Bowl decision will be back to Penn State or Minnesota.
Other New Years Six Bowls
Sugar Bowl
The Big 12 Sugar Bowl picture isn’t too complicated. If the Big 12 champion is in the Playoff, the runner-up goes to the Sugar Bowl. If that champion doesn’t make the Playoff, then the champion plays in the Sugar Bowl.
The SEC picture, on the other hand, could be all kinds of complicated. If LSU beats Georgia and the Bulldogs don’t back into the Playoff, then things are simple. Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl. If LSU and Georgia both reach the Playoff, then the Sugar Bowl (which is also a contract bowl) will pick between Florida and Alabama. Alabama is the biggest draw, but Florida has the superior resume. Auburn could also be an option here, though that would be difficult because the Tigers lost to Florida. The committee’s rankings on Tuesday will give us some insight into who has the inside track.
Orange Bowl
It’s impossible at this point to give a real picture for the Orange Bowl. Virginia is all but guaranteed to be the ACC team. After that, though, anything can happen. The highest-ranked remaining Big Ten or SEC team will get the bid after the Rose and Sugar Bowls are filled. That could be any team out of Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, or maybe even Auburn. It all depends too much on how many Playoff teams each conference gets and who ends up in the Rose and Sugar Bowls.
Cotton Bowl
I still think the Group of 5 spot in the Cotton Bowl belongs to the AAC. Cincinnati will likely fall below Boise State this week, but I think the Bearcats jump back up if they get revenge on Memphis in the AAC Championship Game. If Memphis wins, the Tigers are obviously going to the Cotton Bowl. If Cincinnati wins, there’s a slight chance that Boise State gets it (assuming the Broncos win). Cincinnati would have a better resume, but wins over Air Force and San Diego State would look pretty good for the Broncos. It’s no longer as obvious in Cincinnati’s favor as I’ve been thinking for weeks, but Cincinnati still has the advantage.
The other team in the Cotton Bowl could be any of the Orange Bowl teams listed above. It will be the highest-ranked remaining team. Clemson, with a loss to Virginia, would be a lock for the Cotton Bowl if it misses out on the Playoff. Other than that, though, it could be Penn State, Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn, or Utah (with a loss to Oregon). It will all depend on the rankings and who gets taken for the other New Years’ Six bowls.
