Week 14 CFP Eliminator: Goodbye Bama

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

This week was a historic moment in College Football Playoff Eliminator history. I have been writing or tweeting an Eliminator since the CFP began in 2014, and I have never before been able to tweet that Alabama was eliminated. Well, that changed this week. With two losses and no good wins at all, Alabama is out.

Even though there is a chance at chaos and a weak bubble, Alabama’s resume is just too weak. I haven’t eliminated Oregon and Wisconsin yet, even though there’s no real path for those two. The question is what happens if Clemson loses to Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Would the committee take an 11-2 Oregon team with a mediocre schedule and two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with no ranked wins? Almost certainly not. Would the committee take an 11-2 Wisconsin team with a strong schedule and three ranked wins (including one over Ohio State) over a 12-1 Clemson team? Probably not, but maybe.

What I know for sure, though, is that the committee would take a 12-1 Clemson team with no resume over an 11-2 Alabama team with no resume. Add to that that the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions are guaranteed to finish ahead of Alabama (as are Ohio State and LSU, even with losses this week), and Alabama is done. No path remains to the No. 4 slot. Thus, for the first time in College Football Playoff history, Alabama is eliminated.

Next … What teams are still alive?

Week 14: Teams Remaining

We began the week with 11 teams. We eliminated two more in Week 13, so nine teams remain in contention. Every independent and Group of 5 team has already been eliminated.

ACC:

Team:	Notes:
Clemson	Undefeated after Week 14. Needs another win to feel safe, especially if Georgia upsets LSU.

Big 12:

Team:	Notes:
Baylor	Has a decent chance at a Playoff bid with a win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU and Oregon winning would be a huge help.
Oklahoma	Has a decent chance at a Playoff bid with a win over Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU and Oregon winning would be a huge help.

Big Ten:

Team:	Notes:
Minnesota	A great season, but two losses and only one ranked win means no Playoff this year.
Ohio State	Undefeated after Week 14. Likely a Playoff lock regardless.
Wisconsin	No real path remaining. Needs to beat Ohio State and hope that Clemson loses by a significant margin.

Pac 12:

Team:	Notes:
Oregon	No real path remaining. Needs to obliterate Utah and hope that Clemson loses by a significant margin.
Utah	Has a decent chance with a win over Oregon, but has to worry about being jumped by the Big 12 champion. Clemson losing would be a big help.

SEC:

Team:	Notes:
Alabama	Two losses and no ranked wins means no Playoff resume.
Georgia	In the Playoff with a win. Likely out with a loss, but could be in with a close loss and Utah and Clemson losses.
LSU	Undefeated after Week 14. Likely a lock regardless of result next week.

 

Next … What teams are out?

Teams Eliminated

Week 14:

Team:	Notes:
Alabama	Lost to the only two ranked teams it faced. That’s not a Playoff resume.
Minnesota	Rowed to the boat to Week 14, but with two losses and no shot at a Big Ten title, there’s no Playoff path in these waters.

Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.

Week 13:

 

Team:	Notes:
Penn State	There just isn’t enough meat on the resume to overcome two losses, even if those two losses were to highly-ranked teams.

Week 12:

Team:	Notes:
Auburn	Eliminated with third loss, even though all three are close and to good teams.
Florida	The two-loss resume is decent, but not enough high-end wins, especially after playing two FCS teams. Needs the SEC Championship Game to add to resume, and Georgia just clinched the SEC East.
Michigan	Has a chance at a really good two-loss resume, but will almost certainly need a fourth good win to overcome ugly Wisconsin loss. After being eliminated from the Big Ten East race, there’s no chance of that now.

Week 11:

Team:	Notes:
Iowa	Lost three close games to ranked teams, but three-loss teams can’t make the Playoff.
Kansas State	Eliminated with third loss.
Wake Forest	With two losses, Wake Forest has no resume, even with a potential win over Clemson. There’s just no meat on this resume to offset two losses.

Week 10:

Team:	Notes:
Appalachian State	Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Georgia Southern
SMU	Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Memphis

Week 9:

Team:	Notes:
Iowa State	Losses have been close and to good teams, but eliminated with three.
Missouri	Eliminated with third loss.
Notre Dame	Eliminated after blowout loss to Michigan. Blowout nature of the loss was enough to knock the Irish out, but there’s also not enough meat on the resume this year to overcome two losses.
Pittsburgh	Eliminated with third loss.
Texas	Eliminated with third loss. Probably should have been eliminated after almost losing to Kansas.

Week 8:

Team:	Notes:
Arizona State	There just isn’t enough strength in the Pac 12 to get a two-loss champion in the Playoff this yer, and the Michigan State win hasn’t held up.
Boise State	Eliminated with Week 8 loss to BYU.
Duke	Probably could have eliminated them with two losses, but I let the fact that one was to Alabama keep them in. Definitely eliminated with a third.
Louisville	Missed its shot against Clemson, and eliminated with third loss
N.C. State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
TCU	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.

Week 7:

Team:	Notes:
Arizona	Poor loss to Hawaii plus blowout loss to Washington. Not enough potential good wins on this resume to overcome those two.
Florida State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Memphis	Eliminated with Week 7 loss to Temple
Michigan State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Mississippi State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Texas A&M	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
USC	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Virginia	Missed its shot against Notre Dame and picked up a second loss. Not enough potential strength on resume to overcome two losses.
Washington	Wins over Hawaii, BYU, and USC lost luster. Not enough potential good wins left this season to overcome two losses.

Week 6:

Team:	Notes:
California	Win over Washington isn’t as valuable anymore. Lost its shot against Oregon, and win over Ole Miss won’t be enough to overcome that.
Colorado	Ohio State sucked any value out of the win over Nebraska, and the loss to Air Force isn’t good. Potential win over Washington isn’t as meaningful anymore.
Illinois	Eliminated with three losses, but I probably could have eliminated the Illini with just two.
Oklahoma State	Missed its shot against Texas, no noteworthy nonconference wins, and loss to Texas Tech is too much. Even a potential two wins over Oklahoma won’t make this a Playoff resume.
Washington State	Two bad losses (one because it was to UCLA, one because it was a blowout) and not enough potential quality wins end this season’s hopes.
West Virginia	Actually has a decent potential resume, but blowout nature of loss to Missouri means the Mountaineers could not survive a second loss.

Week 5:

Team:	Notes:
Boston College	A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years.
Indiana	Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten.
Kentucky	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Maryland	The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten.
Mississippi	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Navy	Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis
Nebraska	Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State
North Carolina	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Northwestern	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Oregon State	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Purdue	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Rutgers	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan.
Texas Tech	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma
UAB	Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky
Virginia Tech	Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke.

Week 4:

Team:	Notes:
Air Force	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State
Arkansas	Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4
Kansas	Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect.
San Diego State	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State
South Carolina	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Stanford	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Temple	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo
Tennessee	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
UCF	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt
Vanderbilt	No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff.
Wyoming	Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa

Week 3:

Team:	Notes:
Georgia State	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan
Georgia Tech	Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3.
Hawaii	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington
Miami (Fl)	Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal.
New Mexico	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame
Syracuse	Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left.
Troy	Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss
UCLA	Eliminated with 0-3 start.

Next … Group of 5 Eliminations from Weeks 1 and 2

Week 2:

Team:	Notes:
Army	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan
Bowling Green	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State
Buffalo	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane
Central Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin
Charlotte	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State
Cincinnati	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State
Eastern Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky
Marshall	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State
Nevada	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon
North Texas	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU
Northern Illinois	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah
Ohio	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh
Old Dominion	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech
San Jose State	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa
Southern Miss	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State
Tulane	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn
UConn	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois
ULM	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State
UNLV	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State
UTEP	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech
UTSA	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor
Western Michigan	Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State

Week 1:

Team:	Notes:
Akron	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois
Arkansas State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU
Ball State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana
BYU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah
Coastal Carolina	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan
Colorado State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado
ECU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State
Fl. Atlantic	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State
Fl. International	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane
Fresno State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC
Georgia Southern	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU
Houston	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma
Kent State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State
Liberty	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse
Louisiana	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State
Louisiana Tech	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas
Miami (Oh)	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa
MTSU	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan
New Mexico St	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State
Rice	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army
South Alabama	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska
South Florida	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin
Texas State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M
Toledo	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky
Tulsa	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State
UMass	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers
Utah State	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest
Western Kentucky	Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas