Arizona at Arizona State is the only historic rivalry game on the docket, although Colorado and Kansas State play again for the second year in a row in a renewal of their old feud.
The rest of the league features “regular” matchups that are emblematic of the expanded conference. For teams in the West, Utah plays at Kansas, and BYU hosts UCF.
I preview all those games here and give a “look in” at the other matchups in the Big 12.
No. 13 Utah at Kansas
Friday, November 28
9:00 a.m. PT, ESPN
If last week was a wakeup call in the style points department, this week is the final alarm. The Utes need to impress the Committee with a clear and convincing victory.
Kansas has a decent team with a quarterback who can deal.
Jalon Daniels is having an excellent season, throwing for 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions with another three scores on the ground. He is the heart and soul of KU’s program, and the Jayhawks need the win to reach bowl eligibility.
The KU fanbase is starting to grow anxious with Lance Leipold, too, upping the ante for the stakes of the game. Theoretically, a blowout Utah win might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and forces the Kansas administration to make a change.
The Utes should be able to move the ball with their efficient run game. Coming into the contest with the top rushing offense in the Big 12 and matched up against the third-worst run defense in the league, the analytics favor Utah.
But turnovers could be game-changing, and it would be unwise to overlook Kansas. The game might be tighter than some expect, even with Utah’s track record of blowing out the middle-tier teams in the Conference.
No. 25 Arizona at No. 20 Arizona State
Friday, November 28
6:00 p.m. PT, FOX
Kenny Dillingham should run the ball down Arizona’s throat. Defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales has engineered one of the top passing defenses in the nation. But stopping the run is an entirely different story.
All season, opponents have broken their tendencies to run the ball against UA’s unusual formations. Houston pounded the rock repeatedly with great success, creating the game plan for Dillingham to copy.
Jeff Sims is the ideal quarterback to operate the type of plays that have been successful against the Wildcats this year. Unable to slow down QBs that run and bordering on incompetence in stopping the traditional run game, the Arizona defense is vulnerable.
Perhaps Gonzales cooks up some different looks and consistently dials up play calls specifically designed for runs. If he does that, it could leave the UA corners on an island and at risk of giving up chunk plays over the top.
But if the Wildcats can reasonably stop the run and prevent dagger throws downfield, the Arizona offense could score enough points to get the win.
Colorado at Kansas State
Saturday, November 29
9:00 a.m. PT, FS1
Nobody was predicting a repeat of last year, but the expectations were higher than a three-win season. The only way to positively spin the situation is to label it as a building year for Julian Lewis.
Even that could be considered a stretch, though, with reports indicating Lewis will preserve his redshirt and sit out the final game of the season. If he hits the transfer portal over the offseason, it will be the definition of a “lost year” for Colorado.
Matched up against a Kansas State team needing a win to reach bowl eligibility, the game could get ugly.
Slowing down Avery Johnson is critical, especially after the Wildcats ran wild on Utah’s defense last week.
It’s probably going to take a few forced turnovers for CU to keep the game competitive. The Vegas oddsmakers agree, with the line currently hovering around 17 points.
For Sanders and his roster, the year can’t end soon enough.
UCF at No. 11 BYU
Saturday, November 29
10:00 a.m. PT, ESPN2
That has to be Kalani Sitake’s message to his team in the final game of the year. And what can you control? The final score at the end of the game.
Running it up is one of the few ways to gain the respect of the Playoff Committee. They don’t care that BYU has just a single loss and a better strength of record than many of the teams above them in the rankings.
So, the only logical response is to absolutely crush your opponents. It’s a lesson that Sitake and the Cougars are learning the hard way. Run it up. It’s what you have to do.
UCF is a horrible road team that has yet to win a game outside of Orlando this season. The Knights do need the victory to become bowl eligible, however. And this matchup in Provo is their final chance to correct their wrongs.
In that sense, Scott Frost’s team is going to leave it all on the field, and BYU must be ready.
Even so, the Cougars have superior units on both sides of the ball and should dominate. It’s time to show the Committee how good this team really is.
The Rest of the Big 12
Texas Tech travels to West Virginia as heavy favorites. You never know how the Committee will react, but a win against the Mountaineers might guarantee a spot in the Playoff.
It would be a crime to leave TTU out if they end up losing in the Big 12 Championship Game.
It’s possible, though, and don’t put it past the Committee to make that decision.
But it feels unlikely, and the Red Raiders could lock themselves into the Playoff with a victory in Morgantown.
Cincinnati goes on the road to take on TCU in Fort Worth.
The teams are at opposite ends of the momentum spectrum. The Bearcats have fallen apart while the Horned Frogs regained juice after beating Houston last week.
The showdown features a quarterback battle between Brendan Sorsby and Josh Hoover.
It’s an odd matchup for the final game of the regular season that ought to have been played in the middle of the year.
Houston faces a Baylor team needing a win to reach bowl eligibility.
The Bears were right in the game with Arizona until the middle of the fourth quarter, and the Cougars can’t look at the final score and take the game lightly.
The oddsmakers actually have Baylor as the favorite, indicating how difficult of game it will be for Willie Fritz’s team.
At least the Big 12’s scheduling masters got this matchup sort of right, giving us a new age rivalry game on rivalry week.
Iowa State plays Oklahoma State in Stillwater with a chance to reach eight wins.
The Cyclones have dramatically underperformed in the latter half of the year. Once thought of as the cream of the crop in the Big 12, ISU can still end the year on a successful note.
The Cowboys are a dumpster fire, although momentum has finally shifted with the announcement of Eric Morris as their next head coach.
Perhaps the Pokes can shock the world with a win.
