Before we get into our third-to-last Rooting Interests of the season, we have to point out exactly what scenarios we are dealing with. With so few weeks left in the season, we can be more precise about the scenarios we’re pinning down. For example, Ohio State has no reason to care if it loses the Michigan game (unless the Buckeyes also lose a second game). Go 12-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan, and the Buckeyes are in. So there’s no need to discuss that. Therefore, when looking an Ohio State’s potential rooting interests this week, recognize that we’re looking at what keeps the Buckeyes in the Playoff if they lose to either Penn State, or against Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.
So, with that conversation out of the way, let’s look at the games. Miami of Ohio’s win over Akron was awful, and probably hurt Ohio State in some of the fancier SOS metrics. That shouldn’t matter much. Nor should Georgia Tech’s win over N.C. State, though it does make Clemson’s weak resume even worse.
As we get to the weekend, don’t bother looking at the SEC games. This is the penultimate week of the regular season, which is now officially called SEC Cupcake Week (trademark pending). The SEC West teams face opponents like Western Carolina, Samford, Abilene Christian, and Arkansas. Texas A&M beating Georgia won’t hurt the Buckeyes, but it does also help Alabama’s resume a bit. Missouri taking out Tennessee won’t mean much, but it would lock Alabama into beating a maximum of two P5 teams with winning records.
If Ohio State wants to stay ahead of Oklahoma (or Baylor, but I think that’s locked in already), root for the Big 12’s overall profile to look weaker. That means West Virginia upsetting Oklahoma State, and Kansas taking out Iowa State if possible. Kansas State losing to Texas Tech probably helps as well. And, of course, either Oklahoma or Baylor losing would go a long way to making this conversation moot; both losing would end the Big 12’s Playoff hopes.
In the ACC, it’s better if Pitt beats Virginia Tech, because that would strengthen Penn State’s overall profile. Virginia losing to Liberty seems unlikely, but would further weaken Clemson’s resume if Virginia reaches the ACC Championship Game by winning next week. Syracuse beating Louisville and Duke beating Wake Forest would also hurt Clemson’s resume. Any gain that Alabama might get from a Duke win is easily offset by what Clemson loses. Then again, Clemson is very likely going 13-0, so it might be too late to root against its resume.
And, of course, there is the Pac 12 to discuss. Washington and USC losing will wipe at any chance of multiple ranked wins by the Pac 12 champion, but at this point it looks like the Buckeyes might need a loss by either Utah or Oregon (or both) to feel safe about staying in front of a Pac 12 champion.
At night, Cincinnati gets a national spotlight against Temple. The Bearcats have really struggled the past few weeks, and they need to impress if they want their ranking to move back up. Also in the AAC, it’s probably a little better if SMU beats Navy, but that doesn’t matter too much. Lastly, keep an eye on Conference-USA. FAU should have no trouble with UTSA, but if the Buckeyes want three nonconference opponents that win their conferences (or divisions), Marshall has to lose a game. That means either this week at Charlotte or next week at home against FIU. Neither of those upsets is impossible, but they are upsets.
Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games
Big Ten Rooting Interests
Minnesota @Northwestern
Don’t overthink this. Yes, the Buckeyes played Northwestern and might not play Minnesota. Still, nothing–not even two more wins–will get Northwestern out of cupcake range in the committee’s eyes this year. Root for Minnesota to keep three Big Ten teams in the Top 10 moving forward.
Illinois @Iowa
We can overthink this one a little. Ohio State played neither team, and Iowa should easily stay ranked at 8-4. Meanwhile, an 8-4 finish for Illinois would be impressive for the conference as a whole. It might even slide the Illini into the rankings. (And Illini fans will forever wonder what could have been had Illinois not let those two close games against Eastern Michigan and Nebraska slip away.) Another Illinois win probably also helps Minnesota’s resume more than the Iowa loss would hurt it. Of course, Iowa winning the next two games means a likely Top 15 finish for six Big Ten teams. And an Illinois loss hurts Penn State’s and Michigan’s resumes a bit, too. All in all, either result is fine for Ohio State, but an Iowa win is probably a bit better.
Michigan State @Rutgers
Nothing can get Rutgers out of cupcake range, and Michigan State can still reach a bowl with two more wins. Root for the Spartans.
Michigan @Indiana
The logic in this one is very, very similar to the Iowa-Illinois logic above. Michigan probably stays ranked, even at 8-4. Indiana will definitely be ranked at 9-3. Neither result hurts, really. And if a 12-0 Ohio State loses to Minnesota (or Wisconsin) in the Big 12 Championship Game, having a whopping five ranked wins will likely keep the Buckeyes in the Playoff picture. On the other hand, if the Buckeyes lose to Penn State, it would probably be better if the final statement was beating down a highly-ranked Michigan team. (Though, again, having four ranked wins out of 11 is pretty good too.) Either result again is fine for Ohio State, but Indiana winning is probably a bit better–as long as the Hoosiers can also beat Purdue next week.
Nebraska @Maryland
Ohio State played both, and neither team is going bowling. Also, anything Ohio State gains by Nebraska getting to six wins would be offset by the fact that the Cornhuskers need to beat Iowa to get there. So which looks better in the committee’s eyes? Beating two 4-8 teams or one 3-9 team and one 5-7 team? I have no idea. Maryland winning will very marginally help the SOS numbers a drop more, but it really doesn’t matter.
Purdue @Wisconsin
Purdue can still reach a bowl game by beating Wisconsin and Indiana, but Buckeye fans don’t want that. Root for the Badgers to win handily and keep their high ranking.
