Welcome to the first of three sets of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.
I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.
Now, I do have to admit that a small bit of prognosticating is necessary. There are currently only 66 bowl-eligible teams, but there are 39 bowl games. So, only for the purposes of determining who will reach bowl eligibility, I am forced to predict some games. To avoid bias as much as possible in the process, I will assume that the favored team wins each remaining game, and I will use FPI, SP+, Sagarin, and a few others to determine who is “favored.” As of today, these projections say there will be 80 bowl-eligible teams. That number includes Missouri. The Tigers will be left out of these projections as they are currently appealing a bowl ban before the NCAA, and no final decision has been made.
Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where your team could be headed.
Finally, keep in mind that these are based on what would happen if the season ends today. The season does not end today, though, so things will change between now and Selection Sunday. However, this is where each team stands right now. (As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections the morning of Selection Sunday will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.)
So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:
College Football Playoff
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM | LSU | vs | Georgia |
| Peach Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM | Ohio State | vs | Clemson |
This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.
The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will be the far bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given primetime billing.
Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls
New Years’ Six Bowl Games
| Cotton Bowl Classic | Sat, Dec 28, Noon | Utah | vs | Memphis |
| Orange Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 8:00 PM | Virginia Tech | vs | Minnesota |
| Rose Bowl Game | Wed, Jan 1, 5:00 PM | Penn State | vs | Oregon |
| Sugar Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 8:45 PM | Alabama | vs | Oklahoma |
The NY6 bowls are straightforward enough. The Rose Bowl gets the highest teams from the Big Ten and Pac 12, while the Sugar Bowl gets the same from the SEC and Big 12.
Since no ACC team other than Clemson is ranked, the Orange Bowl gets to select its ACC team. The bowl says it hasn’t thought about what it will do yet, but for now I’m slotting Virginia Tech there due to its recent impressive form. That choice could just as easily go to Virginia, though. The other Orange Bowl slot goes to the highest-ranked remaining Big Ten or SEC team, which is currently Minnesota.
The highest remaining at-large is Utah, and the Utes face the current highest-ranked Group of 5 team, Memphis.
Other Big Ten Bowl Games
| Quick Lane Bowl | Thu, Dec 26, 8:00 PM | Michigan State | vs | Fresno State |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 3:20 PM | Illinois | vs | Louisville |
| Holiday Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 8:00 PM | Iowa | vs | USC |
| Redbox Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | Michigan | vs | Arizona State |
| Outback Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 1:00 PM | Indiana | vs | Texas A&M |
| Gator Bowl | Thu, Jan 2, 7:00 PM | Auburn | vs | Wisconsin |
As I explain in the final section, Indiana moves up to the Outback Bowl because there isn’t really much other choice. The ACC did not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fill its Quick Lane Bowl slot, and I’m putting Fresno State in for now as a replacement team.
Next… All other bowl games
2019-2020 Bowl Games
| Bahamas Bowl | Fri, Dec 20, 2:00 PM | Louisiana Tech | vs | Western Michigan |
| Frisco Bowl | Fri, Dec 20, 7:30 PM | UCF | vs | Marshall |
| New Mexico Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 2:00 PM | FAU | vs | San Diego State |
| Cure Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 2:30 PM | Tulane | vs | Georgia Southern |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 3:30 PM | Temple | vs | North Texas |
| Camellia Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 5:30 PM | Central Michigan | vs | Georgia State |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 7:30 PM | Buffalo | vs | Boise State |
| New Orleans Bowl | Sat, Dec 21, 9:00 PM | UAB | vs | Appalachian State |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Mon, Dec 23, 2:30 PM | Western Kentucky | vs | SMU |
| Hawai’i Bowl | Tue, Dec 24, 8:00 PM | BYU | vs | Hawaii |
| Independence Bowl | Thu, Dec 26, 4:00 PM | Charlotte | vs | North Carolina |
| Military Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, Noon | Navy | vs | Florida State |
| Texas Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 6:45 PM | Oklahoma State | vs | Tennessee |
| Cheez-It Bowl | Fri, Dec 27, 10:15 PM | Kansas State | vs | Wyoming |
| Camping World Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, Noon | Texas | vs | Notre Dame |
| First Responder Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | TCU | vs | Southern Miss |
| Music City Bowl | Mon, Dec 30, 12:30 PM | Kentucky | vs | Pittsburgh |
| Belk Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, Noon | Mississippi State | vs | Miami (FL) |
| Sun Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 2:00 PM | Washington State | vs | Wake Forest |
| Liberty Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 3:45 PM | Iowa State | vs | Liberty |
| Arizona Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 4:30 PM | Utah State | vs | Arkansas State |
| Alamo Bowl | Tue, Dec 31, 7:30 PM | Washington | vs | Baylor |
| Citrus Bowl | Wed, Jan 1, 1:00 PM | Virginia | vs | Florida |
| Birmingham Bowl | Thu, Jan 2, 3:00 PM | Eastern Michigan | vs | Cincinnati |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | Fri, Jan 3, 3:30 PM | Toledo | vs | Nevada |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Sat, Jan 4, 11;30 AM | Air Force | vs | Ohio |
| LendingTree Bowl | Mon, Jan 6, 7:30 PM | Miami (OH) | vs | Louisiana |
This looks like a solid bowl lineup, with a few notable exceptions.
I do have to point out one final important item. ESPN has the right to shuffle around bowl teams between games that ESPN owns. The network has done this before, though it is relatively rare. However, the Las Vegas Bowl matchup leaves a lot to be desired, so don’t be too surprised if ESPN finds a way to either move Boise State elsewhere, or find a better opponent for the Broncos. In this scenario, trading with the Gasparilla Bowl to give matchups of Boise State vs SMU and Buffalo vs Western Kentucky makes a lot of sense.
Next… What are the bowl pools?
ACC
The ACC has a “Tier I” bowl pool consisting of the Sun, Belk, Music City, and Pinstripe Bowls. After Notre Dame and Virginia are selected for the Camping World and Citrus Bowls, the next group of four teams, as of now, will be Pitt, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Miami (Fl). Miami played in the Pinstripe Bowl, Virginia played in the Belk Bowl, and Pitt played in the Sun Bowl last year, so it would be very surprising for those bowls to repeat those teams this year.
Big Ten
The Big Ten bowl situation is complicated. In essence, the league works with all of the bowls to secure the best possible destination. However, the contracts stipulate that, for the main Big Ten bowls, that each bowl needs at least five different teams in six years. This is the sixth and final year of these contracts. The Outback Bowl is the only bowl to not meet that stipulation yet. Therefore, the Outback Bowl cannot host Iowa, Wisconsin, or Michigan this year. While removing those three, as well as NY6 teams Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota from the equation, the only real Outback Bowl choice is Indiana.
SEC
The SEC has a pool of six bowls. Those will be Auburn, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi State for the Outback, Gator, Music City, Texas, Belk, and Liberty Bowls. Because of Missouri’s pending bowl ban and the weakness of the SEC’s bottom teams this year (and with two SEC teams currently in Playoff slots), there will only be five teams for this pool of six bowls. Therefore, the Liberty Bowl will not get an SEC team. If Missouri’s bowl ban is overturned before bowl season (or the appeal extends past the bowl game), then Missouri would likely enter the Texas Bowl, moving Tennessee to the Liberty Bowl.
