With just two weeks left in the college football season, we usually have a small list of contenders remaining in the College Football Playoff race. The list of contenders is currently at 11, which is slightly above average.
We have 11 contenders for the next two weeks because there are so many teams with one or fewer losses. Two teams with two losses are still in the picture–Wisconsin and Oregon. Oregon essentially needs a miracle to get into the picture, while Wisconsin could have an incredible resume with two more wins.
So, that brings us to where we are now. 11 teams–three from the Big Ten, three from the SEC, two from the Big 12, two from the Pac 12, and Clemson. Wisconsin and Minnesota play an elimination game this week, with the winner moving on to the Big Ten Championship Game. LSU and Georgia will meet in the SEC Championship Game, while Alabama needs a win and then some help to get in. Utah looks in decent position now. And Oklahoma and Baylor can just win and hope the committee starts to like the Big 12 again.
The stage is very clearly set for what should be an intense final two weeks to the college football season. With that said, let’s look at the current Playoff pecking order, and what scenarios could possibly throw things out of whack. What teams are locks if they win out, who needs a little help, who is on the bubble, and who is officially a member of Team Chaos? Let’s look at as many of the potential scenarios as we can.
Next…Current Playoff Picture
Playoff Picture
Playoff Locks
1. 13-0 LSU or 12-1 Georgia: If either of these two teams wins its final two games, that team will make the Playoff. I don’t even have to elaborate much on this situation, because it’s obvious. In fact, LSU doesn’t even have to win out. If the Tigers lose to Texas A&M but beat Georgia, they’re still a lock.
2. 13-0 Ohio State or 12-1 Minnesota: The same as above applies here. Similarly, if Ohio State loses to Michigan but beats Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes are still a lock.
3. 13-0 Clemson
Probably in
4. 12-1 LSU or 12-1 Ohio State: If either the Tigers or the Buckeyes reach their respective conference championship game at 12-0 but lose, that team is probably still going to the Playoff. I would imagine that a 12-1 Ohio State or LSU would easily be ahead of 11-1 Alabama, and should still be ahead of a Big 12 champion or an 11-2 Oregon.
Safe if chalk holds
5. 12-1 Clemson: Okay. I honestly have no idea where to put a 12-1 Clemson team. The Tigers are clearly dominant, but also won’t have a single ranked win. If Clemson loses to Virginia or Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will need help. But if they lose to South Carolina this week, they’re likely still in as long as they win the ACC.
6. 12-1 Utah: The committee has clearly shown this year that it prioritizes the ability to win big. Utah has been beating up on its competition with the best of them. The Big Ten or SEC getting two bids due to a conference championship game upset could hurt Utah, but I think–at least as of now–the Utes are a pretty solid fourth in line.
Needs some help
7. 12-1 Oklahoma: We can discuss whether Oklahoma or Utah should be ahead on this list. There are decent cases each way. Oklahoma has far better quality wins, but Utah’s wins have been consistently more convincing. One of these teams is ahead. For now I think it’s Utah, but that could easily change on Tuesday night.
8. 11-1 Alabama: The Crimson Tide need the chalk to hold, because a two-big SEC or Big Ten dooms them. Alabama also likely needs both Utah and Oklahoma (and maybe Baylor) to lose one more. After that, though, Alabama is pretty clearly the only team left standing for the fourth spot if it beats Auburn.
9. 12-1 Baylor: The Bears likely either need to win convincingly over Oklahoma or get an Alabama loss to be in the picture. Like Alabama (and almost every team further down), they need chalk to hold at the top to help open that fourth spot. Baylor also needs (and Alabama may need as well) Georgia to lose the SEC Championship Game convincingly, because I’m not at all sure that 12-1 Baylor jumps 11-2 Georgia.
Needs a lot of help
10. 11-2 Wisconsin: The Badgers could have four Top 15 wins when all is said and done. If Michigan beats Ohio State and then Wisconsin beats the Buckeyes, the Badgers will have an incredible resume. They would need a bit of help from Auburn, Oregon, and maybe the Big 12 to get in the Playoff, but an 11-2 Wisconsin team will be in the thick of things–if Ohio State loses to Michigan. (I would honestly take 11-2 Wisconsin over 11-1 Alabama, but I doubt the selection committee will.)
11. 11-2 Georgia: If the Bulldogs lose only one of their final two games, they’ll still be in the thick of things. They’ll need some help with a bit of chaos, but the potential will still be there. If Auburn beats Alabama, Georgia is looking at three Top 15 wins, plus a Top 5 win if the loss is to Georgia Tech and the Bulldogs beat LSU.
Team Chaos
12. 11-2 Oregon: The Ducks are in big trouble. They have a path to the Playoff, but it’s not a pretty one. Oregon needs a ton of help.
13. 10-2 Michigan: Michigan is eliminated. It would take insane chaos to get the Wolverines in. But if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, then Michigan’s path is basically the same as Oregon’s. I would easily take the resume of a 10-2 Michigan right now over 11-2 Oregon. The Wolverines could have Top 15 wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Iowa, with both losses coming to Top 10 teams (especially if Wisconsin beats Minnesota). Michigan is the ultimate “Team Chaos” team right now.
Next… the Group of 5 race
Race for the Cotton Bowl
I’ve been saying for a while now that the AAC basically has things locked up, and I still stand by that. It would take a lot for the AAC champion to not go to the Cotton Bowl. I do, however, have to point out that Boise State is closing the gap.
The Broncos blew out a solid Utah State team. Boise State has a good excuse for its BYU loss, and has some pretty solid wins, like over Air Force and Wyoming.
The problem for Boise State is that every AAC contender has a much better collection of wins. However, Cincinnati has really struggled in recent weeks. If the Bearcats get blown out by Memphis next week, but then come back and barely beat the Tigers in the AAC Championship Game, that leaves a bit of room for Boise State to jump them.
If Cincinnati manages to beat Memphis, then Memphis doesn’t go to the AAC Championship Game. Instead, that game will likely feature Navy. The Midshipmen are currently 8-2, with wins over Air Force and SMU. If Navy beats Houston and Cincinnati beats Memphis, Navy will face Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game.
I would be very surprised if a 10-2 Navy team doesn’t jump Boise State. A win over Cincinnati would easily give Navy a far superior resume.
However, this is where Boise State has a chance. After beating Cincinnati, Navy would still have to face Army in their annual rivalry game. If Navy loses that game after winning the AAC, a 12-1 Boise State team would go to the Cotton Bowl instead of a 10-3 Navy team.
Those are Boise State’s path. Either have Cincinnati beat Memphis after an ugly split of games, or have Navy win the AAC but then lose to Army. That’s how the Broncos get to the Cotton Bowl. (If Cincinnati and Houston both win next week and then Memphis beats Cincinnati in a rematch, the Tigers would most likely jump back ahead of the Broncos.)
