Week 13 CFP Bubble Watch: Georgia’s resume is legit

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count 12 teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. (And if you haven’t been reading them, please feel free to go back to them.)

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the 12 teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. Keep in mind, it’s still a little early in the season, so the different SOS methodologies could bring up radically different results. Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow over the next few weeks.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
LSU	2-0	1-0	1-0	3-0	3-0	3-25	6	7.3 (3)	5.3 (51)

LSU’s resume is unimpeachable. Great SOS, four Top 40 wins, and a whopping six wins over teams with winning records. The defensive numbers could use a bit of improvement, especially after getting gashed by Ole Miss, but LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is likely in with one loss, let alone undefeated.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Ohio State	0-0	2-0	1-0	4-0	3-0	30-50	5	7.1 (4)	3.3 (1)

The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. The SOS slipped a little after playing Rutgers, but season-ending games against Penn State and Michigan will more than make up for that. This resume is clearly second to LSU’s right now, but there’s no one else close to it. The Tigers and Buckeyes are very clearly a cut above the rest of the country right now.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Clemson	0-0	1-0	1-0	4-0	5-0	60-90	4	7.1 (5)	3.6 (2)

It’s easy to see why the selection committee wasn’t such a fan of Clemson in its first rankings. The only Top 40 wins are Texas A&M and Wake Forest, and with Wake Forest’s recent play that won’t last long. (Louisville is close to cracking the Top 40, though.) This resume has an ugly five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better over the next few weeks. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team and why the Tigers are likely to go 13-0.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Georgia	1-0	2-0	0-0	4-1	2-0	20-40	4	6.42 (27)	4.1 (4)

This resume was good last week, but now it’s excellent. The Bulldogs are still the only team in this section of the Bubble Watch with a loss to a team in that 40-80 range. That is easily outweighed by a resume that is really only matched by LSU’s and Ohio State’s. It makes perfect sense that the committee ranked Georgia at No. 4, and the Bulldogs are a Playoff lock if they can win out.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Penn State	0-1	2-0	2-0	2-0	3-0	15-30	4*	5.2 (58)	4.5 (12)

The Nittany Lions have a very impressive resume, and they get Ohio State next. The offense could be better, but the defense is elite. With Indiana and Pitt, the Nittany Lions have four Top 40 wins. Compare this resume to every one-loss team other than Georgia. The Nittany Lions are clearly very underrated by the committee right now. Of course, that point is somewhat moot. Beat Ohio State and the Nittany Lions will shoot up the rankings; lose and it would take an insane amount of chaos to back Penn State into the Playoff.

(*Note that I am not counting Buffalo, who reached 6-5 with a win over Toledo on Wednesday, as a “team with a winning record” since the Bulls were 5-5 when the week started.)

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Minnesota	1-0	0-1	0-0	5-0	3-0	40-75	3	6.3 (18)	4.7 (17)

The stats on this resume will surprise some, especially with how close Minnesota’s early-season games were. But this is a very solid team on both sides of the ball. Only one win against Top 40 teams means there is no meat here, but if the Gophers win out that would add wins over Wisconsin and either Ohio State or Penn State. The SOS numbers are rapidly rising, and will continue to do so. This isn’t a Playoff resume yet, but it will be if Minnesota can go 12-1.

Next… Teams that are on the bubble

On the Bubble:

These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Oklahoma	0-0	2-0	1-1	2-0	4-0	25-70	3	8.4 (1)	5.2 (37)

It’s easy to understand why the committee doesn’t like Oklahoma. However, those proclaiming that Oklahoma is behind a 12-1 Pac 12 champion are overstating the case. The defense has decent numbers and stepped up this week, the SOS numbers are improving, and the Sooners could have four ranked wins (and five Top 40 wins) when all is said and done. That’s better than what Oregon and Utah are bringing to the table.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Oregon	0-0	1-1	1-0	6-0	1-0	20-55	3	6.4 (16)	4.4 (9)

The Pac 12 has two Top 40 teams, and Oregon has beaten both of them. The metrics here are strong, and the SOS is decent. Nothing over the next two weeks will move the needle much, but Oregon could very well end the season with no real cupcakes. The only cupcake in this resume is FCS No. 3 Montana. My rule is that all FCS teams count as 80+ no matter what, but Montana is likely right around the edge of that No. 80 range when compared to FBS teams. (Indeed, Sagarin has Montana at No. 81 overall when combining all FBS and FCS teams.)

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Utah	0-0	0-1	1-0	6-0	2-0	30-75	2	6.6 (11)	4.3 (7)

Utah has played two decent teams–USC and Washington–and the Utes split those games. Utah probably also should have lost to Washington. This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12, and it won’t get much better over the next two weeks (though BYU beating up on the weak half of its schedule helps a bit). Utah is winning games convincingly, and the metrics reflect that, but I’m looking at this resume and have zero idea why or how the Utes are ranked ahead of teams like Penn State or Minnesota. Why is this resume even ahead of Oklahoma’s?

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Alabama	0-1	1-0	0-0	4-0	4-0	15-70	2	7.7 (2)	4.7 (19)

This resume is ugly. The one decent win is over Texas A&M, which is counted as a ranked win due to appearing in the AP and Amway Coaches Polls. The only other team with a winning record that Alabama has beaten is Southern Miss. Duke has fallen into cupcake range with a 4-6 record against a weak schedule. Massey loves the Crimson Tide’s schedule, and the SOS range excluding Massey would be about 50-70. Alabama’s metrics aren’t anywhere near the usual dominant numbers. The Crimson Tide are getting some major benefit of the doubt for blowing out bad teams, and likely for the Alabama brand and recent success. If we’re judging this resume on resume alone, there’s not much here.

Next… Teams that are still alive, but barely

Need help:

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Baylor	0-1	2-0	2-0	1-0	4-0	40-100	3	6.3 (21)	4.6 (13)

Baylor fans have a bit of a complaint that the Bears aren’t respected enough for their two ranked wins. There’s something to that. Add to that the fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams and this seems like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. The very fact that Baylor can play five Top 40 teams and still not crack the Top 40 in any SOS metric tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. On pure resume, this looks like a decent one-loss picture. But the Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Wisconsin	0-1	2-0	0-0	2-1	4-0	15-35	3	6.1 (31)	4.2 (6)

The Badgers aren’t in a terrible position. The loss to Illinois looks more acceptable each week. They got a lot of help from Iowa, which both boosted the value of the Iowa win and gives the Badgers a shot. If Wisconsin wins out and gets to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Badgers could have four ranked wins. That will be decent, though the win over Ohio State would have to be convincing–otherwise the Badgers (at 11-2) probably wouldn’t be able to even jump the Buckeyes. (It would also help Wisconsin if Michigan beats Ohio State, both to hurt the Buckeyes’ resume and to add value to the win over Michigan.)

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Michigan	0-1	2-1	0-0	2-0	4-0	10-25	3	5.6 (66)	3.9 (3)

I have eliminated Michigan, but I’m concerned I may have been a drop too early on that. If the Wolverines win out, they would have four Top 40 wins, including one over Ohio State. The SOS numbers would be elite, as is the defense. If we get some real chaos, like two-loss teams winning both the Big 12 and the Pac 12, why wouldn’t Michigan be a contender? Because Penn State is in front of the Wolverines with a head-to-head win? This resume would be exceptionally strong. The blowout nature of the Wisconsin loss is the reason I eliminated Michigan, but we’ve seen a team with a similar loss reach the Playoff (2017 Georgia). It would take a lot of help, but Michigan’s resume could be very competitive–if it can beat Ohio State.