This past week, all 25 teams ranked by the CFP selection committee were in action. With so many games, a trend that has been slowly developing over the year came to full fruition.
We haven’t seen many upsets at the top of the game this year. And while we have seen some matchups of Top 15 teams–mostly involving Auburn or Michigan–we have yet to really see top teams get upset, or matchups between serious contenders. (Yes, we have had a few, most notably Alabama-LSU, but there have been far fewer than in most years.) That will change over the final few weeks of the season, whether due to scheduled matchups or conference championship games.
While there haven’t been many upsets at the top of the rankings. We’ve had plenty at this bottom. This past week, three of the committee’s teams ranked 19-25 lost, plus a pretty weak display from Cincinnati, for the second time in three weeks. Don’t be surprised if the committee drops the Bearcats a little after this performance.
What that leaves us with is essentially a two-tier ranking system. And while we can subdivide each tier further, the breakdown of the tiers will be very important.
The Top 17 teams are basically locked into those spots. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Iowa will be the Top 17 teams from here on out. A shocking upset could knock one of these teams out, sure, and Baylor could fall out on its own by losing two of its final three games (to Texas and then again in the Big 12 Championship Game). Other than that Baylor case, though (and assuming no one does something crazy like lose to Northwestern or an FCS team), these 17 teams will be ranked the rest of the way, no matter what, and will like be the Top 17 the rest of the way.
From 18 on down, though, is anybody’s guess. We could see AAC teams stay in, though they’ve been less impressive as the season has gone on. Also, Cincinnati and Memphis still have to face each other. Appalachian State and Boise State can stay ranked by winning out, but one more loss will end any rankings the rest of the way. Maybe SMU slides back in this week.
After that, though, what’s left? What teams are we looking at to be ranked in the back section of the Top 25? Pitt, Virginia, and/or Virginia Tech could slide in, though Pitt plays Virginia Tech this week, and Virginia faces Virginia Tech next week, so only one of those three, at most, will likely be ranked by season’s end. Are we looking at Iowa State, with as impressive a four-loss resume as we’ve seen in a while?
17 teams have basically locked up their year-end rankings, with two weeks left in the regular season. The other eight spots in the Top 25, though, are entirely up for grabs. Who does this help most? Quite clearly, the Pac 12.
Next… How this helps the Pac 12
Utah vs Oregon
As the season has gone on and the Pac 12 has seen historic parity, the conference’s Playoff chances have felt weaker. Each team in the conference has at least four wins. However, aside from Utah and Oregon, each team has at least four losses, as well.
The Pac 12’s narrative has been set for months now. Oregon is a good team with a heartbreaking opening loss against another good team. The Ducks are still winning its games against a decent schedule, but nothing special stands out. Utah is a good team that is blowing everyone out, but the Utes played one bad game against USC, and now they’re a one-loss team with no meaningful wins.
The narrative is clear: Utah and Oregon each need to win out, meet each other at 11-1 in the Pac 12 Championship Game, and then the conference hopes that one team wins decisively enough to get a Playoff bid.
With the current rankings situation, though, that all changes. Iowa State is certainly going to be the first four-loss team to make its way into the rankings when push comes to shove. After the Cyclones, though, the next two best four-loss resumes in the country are Washington and USC.
I highly doubt that both of those teams will make it into the rankings this week. It’s quite possible that neither does. However, if both teams successfully finish at 8-4, I expect we’ll see both of them in the committee’s Top 25 entering conference championship weekend.
If that happens, the season’s entire narrative instantly changes. Oregon isn’t a team with a good loss and no quality wins. Suddenly, the Ducks are 2-0 against the Top 25 and facing a Top 10 Utah team in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Utah, meanwhile, is not the team that blew out everyone but Washington and USC anymore. Instead, the Utes are a team that went 1-1 against Top 25 competition, while blowing out everyone else they face.
The chaos at the bottom of the rankings has been great for Oregon and Utah. As long as Washington and USC can win their final few games, the rankings should clear space for them at the bottom. That will matter when Selection Sunday rolls around.
Next… Alabama, Group of 5, and more
Alabama’s status
The Crimson Tide are in the same boat as last week. Alabama needs help to make the Playoff. It got a little from Oklahoma, though a 12-1 Oklahoma team still will likely jump Alabama when all is said and done.
Minnesota’s loss definitely helped the Crimson Tide, as well. The Big Ten still has some paths to getting two teams in the Playoff, but they’re not particularly likely ones. Alabama will be rooting heavily for Ohio State to beat Penn State next weekend. Other than Penn State winning out, though, Alabama is in decent shape.
Of course, Alabama still needs help from elsewhere. The Pac 12’s gains, as discussed above, come at Alabama’s detriment. A Clemson loss would still help. And Georgia entering the SEC Championship Game at 11-1 would make Alabama very nervous.
Also, the Crimson Tide just lost its best excuse to overlook the loss to LSU. Before, Alabama could have basically told the committee that they’re a better team in the Playoff than the LSU game showed, because Tua Tagovailoa would be healthy for the postseason. With the star quarterback officially done for the year, this entire line of argument is irrelevant. Alabama will be evaluated based on resume and results on the field, and nothing more.
Group of 5 race
The AAC has had a vice grip on the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl bid for a month now, but it’s slowly loosening. Cincinnati’s consistent near-losses mean that other teams might catch up to the Bearcats. Also, with Navy’s loss to Notre Dame and SMU not impressing, these teams have started to slide in the committee’s eyes.
The worst-case scenario for the AAC would be Memphis beating Cincinnati in the regular-season finale, but the Bearcats getting revenge in the AAC Championship Game. Cincinnati has been unimpressive enough that the committee might no longer take a two-loss Cincinnati over a one-loss Boise State or Appalachian State. Similarly, if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, we could see a two-loss Navy win the conference. After the blowout against Notre Dame this weekend, I don’t know if the committee would put Navy ahead of Boise State or Appalachian State, either.
The Broncos and Mountaineers are the only potential non-AAC options, though. If those two teams lose another game, the AAC champion is going to the Cotton Bowl. Even a three-loss Temple or UCF winning the AAC would get the bid before a two-loss team from any other conference.
