If the playoffs were to begin this week, the Ducks would be joined in the playoff field by Ohio State and Indiana, who maintained their rankings of first and second, respectively.
The four teams from the West had some up and down performances last week.
Oregon and USC got a pair of wins, as the Trojans pulled away from Northwestern and the Ducks gutted one out against Iowa.
On the other side of things, UCLA hung tough with Nebraska while Washington was stunned by Wisconsin.
This week, 16 Big Ten teams are in action across eight conference games. Each week we look at six conference games with a focus on schools from the region, plus two others.
The two games we skip this weekend are Michigan traveling to Wrigley Field to meet Northwestern, and Indiana hosting Wisconsin.
Expect a lot of action on the ground in the first contest, and expect a Michigan win. Meanwhile, the dominant Hoosiers will prove way too much for the Badgers.
And with that here is a look at the six Big Ten games we are highlighting.
N0. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 17 USC Trojans
Saturday, November 15
12:30 PM PT, Big Ten Network
Line: USC –6.5
Over/Under: 49.5
The USC offense is second in the nation with a Big Ten best 503 yards per game. The Iowa defense is fourth in the nation, yielding just 250.2 yards of offense per game.
Something has to give.
Iowa’s defense is limiting opponents to just 13.7 points per game, and they caused all kinds of problems for Oregon last week.
Jayden Maiava has been stellar this season, and he has been able to do damage both with his arm and running the football when needed.
The versatility of Lincoln Riley’s offense is a big difference from recent years. And the Trojan offense is far from a one-trick pony.
Makai Lemon leads the Big Ten with 937 yards receiving, and King Miller can beat teams on the ground.
Iowa’s game against the Ducks was extremely physical, and the long road trip could be problematic over the course of the game.
USC has been very good at home this season and that advantage could be big: The Trojans are undefeated in the Coliseum (5-0), outscoring Big Ten opponents 114-61 in LA.
Dating back to 2021, Iowa has lost 12 in a row vs. ranked opponents; that streak will run to 13 when it’s over.
The Hawkeyes are solid in all three phases, and their defense will be a problem for the Trojans, but USC does enough to win and get the cover late.
Against the spread: USC
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: USC
Maryland Terrapins at Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, November 15
12:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Illinois –14.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Well, following the loss to Rutgers last week, Maryland is sitting at 4-5 on the season with a visit from Michigan next week, followed by a trip to MSU.
Needless to say, the Terps find themselves up against it, and this road trip to Champaign looms large.
I still have a lot of faith in Malik Washington, and the true freshman has been solid all season, but has not had a lot of help around him on the offensive side of the ball.
UMD will need to lean heavily on their young QB in this one.
Illinois does not have a great pass rush, and the Illini defense is terrible on third down.
Washington will need to make a lot of plays if the Terps are to be successful—and the Terps will need to stay ahead of the chains.
A bright spot for Maryland on defense has been taking the ball away. The Terps are second in the nation with 17 interceptions this season.
Luke Altmyer is completing 70% of his passes for Illinois, and the senior knows how to take care of the ball. He can’t get baited into forcing bad throws on Saturday.
The Illini will also take advantage of a Maryland run defense that is not good.
Kaden Feagin could have a breakout game running the ball and look for Altmyer to gain yardage on some designed runs.
Illinois should win this one comfortably and pull away in the second half.
Against the spread: Illinois
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Illinois
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 15
12:30 PM PT, CBS
Line: Penn State –7.5
Over/Under: 49.5
We are leaving the No. 2 team in the nation alone as Indiana faces Wisconsin coming off an upset win.
Michigan and Northwestern offers a lot of intrigue and the Cats’ ground attack could make it interesting.
But for me this one, for the Land-Grant Trophy seems to be the most interesting of the three options.
Sure, both teams are currently entrenched in six-game losing streaks, but hey, someone has to get the win this week.
Penn State showed a lot of fight in the close loss to Indiana last week and the Lions have a chance to finish strong and end up in a bowl game by running the table down the stretch.
Ethan Grunkemeyer looked solid in just his third career start against the Hoosiers last week, and the PSU ground attack was very good.
That ground game should be able to take this one over.
MSU has allowed 187.5 rushing yards per game over the last four games and that will be difference. Penn State gets the win while the Spartans continue to slide.
Against the spread: Penn State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State
Purdue Boilermakers at Washington Huskies
Saturday, November 15
4:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Washington –16.5
Over/Under: 53.5
That should not be the issue this week against the Boilermakers.
It also won’t hurt that Washington will not have to face the Badgers run defense again, either.
While Purdue does not have nearly the defensive acumen the Badgers offer, they do have Barry Odom directing the ship and a bit of a blueprint from last week.
Wisconsin played a lot of zone and were able to keep Demond Williams bottled up and in front of them.
Look for Purdue to deploy the same scheme in an effort to slow down the Huskies ground attack.
The problem is the Boilers have not been great at stopping the run this season and it hardly seems they will be able completely stop the UW offensive attack.
Last week, Purdue did a pretty good job of taking the run game away from Ohio State and the Buckeyes beat up on them with the pass.
Look for Denzel Boston, if he is able to play, and the other Washington receivers to find soft spots in the zone this week. The UW passing attack will take whatever Purdue gives them.
If the Huskies can start fast and establish things early through the air—and get Jonah Coleman (also questionable) going on the ground—they could put this one away early.
Against the spread: Washington
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Washington
UCLA Bruins at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, November 15
4:30 PM PT, NBC
Line: Ohio State –31.5
Over/Under: 48.5
At 3-6, UCLA could still become bowl-eligible were they to run the table, but that would require a huge road upset this weekend.
The last time Nico Iamaleava played in Ohio Stadium, things did not go so hot for him and UT in the playoffs last December. The QB struggled to throw the ball and found little room to run, finishing with 47 yards on 20 carries.
He did find the end zone twice, however, and if he can duplicate those scores this week, it might be a moderate success.
The Buckeyes have only allowed 100+ rushing yards once in a game; in the opener, Texas tallied 166.
UCLA is going to have a hard time running the ball, but the Bruins will likely need Iamaleava to make some plays on the ground, either by design or by improvising.
The problem is, the Bucks might be even better against the pass.
Only Illinois has thrown for 200+ against them and they have held four of their nine opponents to under 100 yards through the air.
Should the Bruins find away to move, the ball they will need to deal with Julian Sayin and an OSU offense full of playmakers.
If the Bruins are to keep this one interesting, they are going to need to create multiple turnovers and some explosive plays on offense.
The OSU defense does not give up a lot of big plays, though.
This season the Buckeyes have allowed the second-fewest plays of 10 and 20+ yards this season, and nobody has allowed fewer plays of 30+ yards than Ohio State.
As for those turnovers, the OSU offense has only given it up six times this season, the third-fewest in America.
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Friday, November 14
6:00 PM PT, FOX
Line: Oregon –25.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Oregon would be wise not to overlook the Gophers. This is a sneaky good Minnesota team.
But Dan Lanning is a master motivator, and I think he will make sure the Ducks are prepared.
Minnesota will rely on a physical running game and try to control the time of possession.
Oregon has been good against the run this season. Last week, the Ducks limited a potent Iowa ground attack to just 2.35 yards per carry.
If Oregon’s front seven can limit Minnesota’s ground attack and keep the Gophers from managing the clock, the game could get out of hand in a hurry.
It also will mean Oregon can focus on the pass and bring the pressure.
However, If Minnesota is able to move the ball on the ground it will open things up for Drake Lindsey to throw the ball.
The freshman QB has thrown for 222.5 yards per game in Minnesota’s six wins and just 136 per outing in the three losses.
Minnesota has done a great job of stopping the run this season but has had some issues in a few Big Ten games. Oregon should be able to control the line on offense and produce.
Bottom line, Oregon wins and they will pull away late, but the Gophers could hang around longer than a lot of people expect.
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon
