With just three weeks left in the regular season, Playoff hopes are on the line throughout the league.
Any further missteps by BYU or Utah will be eliminators.
Both programs face tests this week with games against TCU and Baylor, respectively.
I preview those matchups here along with Arizona’s contest at Cincinnati and Arizona State’s game against West Virginia.
And at the bottom, I give a “look in” at the other matchups in the Big 12 this week.
Arizona at No. 25 Cincinnati
Saturday, November 15
9:00 a.m. PT, FS1
Brendan Sorsby has been crushing it this season, entering the game with a 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 453 yards rushing.
His threat to run is a problem for Arizona’s defense. Sorsby has scored eight times on the ground and UA hasn’t fared well against that type of quarterback.
The Bearcats had a bye week to prepare for Noah Fifita, too, further complicating Arizona’s chances of winning.
But Brent Brennan’s team is playing with confidence. And the Vegas oddsmakers are expecting a close game.
The key to the upset might be forcing turnovers.
In Cincinnati’s two losses, Sorsby has thrown an interception. In every other game where the quarterback has taken care of the ball, UC ended up with the win.
On offense, explosive plays and third down conversions figure to be critical. Controlling the line of scrimmage to give Fifita enough time to throw is a must.
And keeping the defense honest with a combination of Fifita runs and the traditional ground game will also play a key role.
Cincinnati might be on upset alert. Don’t sleep on Arizona.
West Virginia at Arizona State
Saturday, November 15
10:00 a.m. PT, TNT
West Virginia is riding momentum after upsetting Houston and beating Colorado. Rich Rodriguez’s offense has found life in freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr., unlocking a sense of belief at every other position group on the team.
Yet, this is a Jeff Sims game.
The senior set the Arizona State record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game and faces an opposing quarterback that somewhat mirrors his style. In other words, it’s a toe-to-toe tilt against a true freshman on the other sideline.
Sims is not going to get beat. Even if it takes his single-handed willpower to get the job done.
The X-Factors are turnovers and special teams. If Sims fumbles or throws interceptions, the door swings open. And if it’s a close game, the Sun Devil punting and kicking issues could bite them.
But this is a day game in the desert. Look for an Arizona State victory.
No. 13 Utah at Baylor
Saturday, November 15
4:00 p.m. PT, ESPN2
Lose and Utah is out. Win and the hopes stay alive.
Baylor is a reasonably talented opponent with a strong quarterback. Sawyer Robertson might not get much attention within the Big 12, but he is one of the top QBs in the league. Mobile and accurate, Robertson can put up points.
But as good as Baylor’s offense is, the defense is contrastingly poor. The Bears are No. 13 in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game and 13th in points allowed per game.
That’s not a good sign when matched up against a Utah team that has been blowing out mediocre opponents all year. And coming off a resounding win against a respected Cincinnati team, it’s not unreasonable to expect a clear Ute victory.
Why? Baylor’s lines on both sides of the ball are suspect.
The 7.5 spread seems low and presents an opportunity to make a statement. Look for Utah to dominate the line of scrimmage, effectively run the ball, and score plenty of points.
TCU at No. 12 BYU
Saturday, November 15
7:15 p.m. PT, ESPN
That’s what the Playoff Committee wants to know after getting outclassed by Texas Tech. Currently on the outside of the bracket, the Cougars need to send a message.
A close win against TCU won’t be enough. The Committee needs to see a clear victory.
To do that, the BYU defense must force Josh Hoover to throw interceptions. Using pressure should help, and big hits from the secondary would establish the tone.
Yet, keeping Hoover contained is a key because he can be an effective runner.
On the other side of the ball, getting the ground game going is a must. The Cougars could not establish their normal rhythm against TTU and it threw off the entire offense.
The Horned Frogs have nowhere near the same caliber of defensive line, but the need to establish the run will remain just as critical.
Even so, it’s a night game at LaVell Edwards Stadium. On national television. With Playoff hopes on the line.
The home crowd should play an important role and make a difference. As a fanbase, these are the types of games you live for.
Now, it’s on the team to go out there and perform.
The Rest of the Big 12
Texas Tech hosts UCF in a game where the Red Raiders are 24-point favorites.
The Knights have not won a road game this season and were blown out by Baylor the last time they travelled to Texas.
Sitting at a comfortable spot in the CFP Rankings, the margin of victory is less important.
Staying healthy and getting the dub matter most. It’s time to take care of business.
Kansas State travels to Stillwater to face the 1-8 Cowboys.
It’s been a terrible season for K-State, yet a bowl game is within reach.
The Wildcats need two more wins to get there, and they play Colorado to finish the year. That makes this game against Oklahoma State a must win.
Fortunately, Ok State is not a competitive team and it’s highly unlikely that an upset occurs.
