The Week 11 college football roundup. The 5 things that matter, winners and losers, overrated and underrated, and what it all means.
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College Football Week 11 Roundup
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Early Week 12 Line Lookahead
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
– Chad Morris fired: 5 possible options
– Predicting Second CFP Rankings
– Predicting every remaining game, conference race
Quick Thoughts: Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
– 10 Quick Thoughts On LSU 46, Alabama 41
Week 11 Roundup
The Really Big Thing | Most Overrated Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
5. Winners & Losers From Week 11
Winner: Ohio State’s defense
The offense might be hanging up ridiculous numbers, but the defense – with or without Chase Young – has been more impressive. The Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense, allowing just 215 yards per game. To put this into perspective, Wisconsin is second, giving up 231 a game. No defense since 2011 Alabama has finished a season allowing fewer than 250 yards per game.
Loser: Missouri’s offense
This got bad, fast. QB Kelly Bryant has been less than 100%, and he was out in the loss to Georgia. Now, the Mizzou offense that came up with 400 yards or more in five of its first six games hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark in any of its last three.
Getting stuffed and shutout by Georgia is one thing, but the Tigers have scored a total of 21 points over the last three weeks playing Vanderbilt and Kentucky before going to Athens. However, they’re 5-0 at home, 0-4 on the road, and they host Florida this weekend.
Winner: Tennessee
Well would you look at that. Tennessee, after starting 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU along the way, has ripped off wins in four of its last five games to get to 5-5. And now, after all the pain, and all the suffering, it just has to win one of its last two games at Missouri or at home against Vanderbilt to go bowling. As a warning, thought, the Vols were 5-5 last year before playing Mizzou and Vandy, too, and were outscored 88-30 in the two losses.
Loser: Kentucky
Kentucky is keeping it all together with Scotch tape and bubble gum, but the lack of offensive punch has now become a problem. It had its shot late in the 17-13 loss to Tennessee, but couldn’t get into the end zone. Now, after failing to score 14 points in four of its last six games, it has two win two of its last three to go bowling. At Vanderbilt, UT Martin, Louisville – beat the Commodores, or else.
Winner: Illinois
And they did it with room to spare. Not three weeks ago, the Illini were done. The Lovie Smith era was a disaster, there was no hope for anything positive, and the idea of going to a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and the second time since 2011 seemed ridiculous. And then it beat Wisconsin, rolled by Purdue and Rutgers, and last week, took down Michigan State on the road to get to six wins with two games to go. It also helped that …
Loser: Michigan State collapsed
There was the 12-men on the field debacle in the 10-7 loss to Arizona State. There was the blowout loss at Ohio State. There were the losses to Wisconsin and Penn State by a combined score of 66-7. There was the suspension of heart-and-soul LB Joe Bachie to a PED test.
But everything was back on track with a 31-10 lead against Illinois going into the fourth quarter, and then … it was the biggest comeback win in Illini history. Now MSU has lost four straight and has to win two of its last three against at Michigan, at Rutgers, and Maryland to get bowl eligible.
Winner: Florida program bowl projections
USF is the one team probably out of the hunt – needing to win two of the last three games against Cincinnati, Memphis and at UCF to get to six wins – and FIU has to win one of its last two games against Miami or Marshall, but everyone else in the Sunshine State will get a vacation.
UCF became bowl eligible a few weeks ago, and so did Florida. Florida Atlantic is all but locked in with seven wins. After a win over Louisville, Miami is set, and now … Florida State is there. After the win at Boston College – despite the loss of head coach Willie Taggart – all the Noles have to do is beat Alabama State and it gets to start a new bowl streak.
Loser: The Pac-12 bowl projections
The Pac-12 needs some crazy things to happen in a hurry to get more teams bowl eligible. Arizona, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State and UCLA are all 4-5 and need to win two of their last three games. Arizona State is no lock, needing to win just one more with at Oregon State, Oregon, and Arizona to go, and 4-6 Colorado has to beat both Washington and Utah. Cal is 5-4, and it has to win one of its last three against USC, at Stanford and at UCLA.
Winner: SMU 59, East Carolina 51
1,280 yards of total offense. 912 yards of passing. Just four penalties, one turnover each, and a finish that went down to the wire. Both teams are incapable lately of playing uninteresting games.
Loser: UCF
There was some thought that UCF was going to rip through the rest of its schedule, catch a big break, and get right back to a New Year’s Six bowl game. And then the O came to a complete stop with just three points in the second half of the 34-31 loss to Tulsa.
Week 11 Roundup
The Really Big Thing | Most Overrated Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The really big thing was …
4. The Really Big Thing Was …
LSU beat Alabama, and looked great doing it.
For the next several weeks, the college football world will be locked down in a deep debate about whether or not Alabama is one of the four best teams in college football.
Does it deserve a spot … is the schedule good enough … did it just get exposed … ? More on all of that in the No. 1 slot in this.
This was the second time in 2019 that the Alabama program with the once-impenetrable defense got annihilated by a team with NFL offensive talent.
Trevor Lawrence and company did a tap dance in Santa Clara in Clemson’s 44-16 win for the national championship, and now LSU took things to another level as it further cemented that it’s absolutely and totally for real.
Ripping apart the Texas defense on the road was impressive, and beating the Florida and Auburn Ds full of NFL talent was amazing, but winning at Alabama is winning at Alabama.
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Early Week 12 Line Lookahead
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
– Chad Morris fired: 5 possible options
– Predicting Second CFP Rankings
– Predicting every remaining game, conference race
Quick Thoughts: Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
– 10 Quick Thoughts On LSU 46, Alabama 41
LSU got up fast, answered every challenge, and got out to a 33-13 halftime lead. Alabama is just that good, made it a fight, and the Tigers again did everything needed to get out with the 46-41 win.
It’s not just that Joe Burrow locked down the Heisman with his 31-of-39, 393-yard, three-touchdown, no interception, 64-rushing yard day. It’s not just that Clyde Edwards-Helaire gave the Tide D fits with 103 yards and three scores. It’s not that the O put up 559 yards of total offense and looked unstoppable.
It’s that Alabama on offense was Alabama on offense, and LSU still won.
Tua Tagovailoa was less than 100% on his bum ankle, and he still threw for 418 yards. Najee Harris looked like a top five NFL running back on a field full of pro talent – by the way, some estimated that as much as 10% of the 2020 NFL Draft will come from those two teams – and the Bama receivers were AMAZING …
And LSU still won.
Now, all the Tigers have to do is win three of their final four games against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and then – if all of that goes well – most likely Georgia in the SEC Championship. Do that, and they’re in the College Football Playoff.
Week 11 Roundup
Winners & Losers | Most Overrated Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The most overrated thing was …
3. The Most Overrated Thing Was …
Penn State losing to Minnesota.
The 31-26 win over the Nittany Lions was a huge, giant, massive deal for a Minnesota program that’s not used to a whole lot of success, doesn’t normally sell out, and – at least in the last 60 years – is certainly not familiar with the rarified air of being considered a national title contender.
No. 7 in the AP poll. that’s the highest the Gophers have been since 1962.
Now, all it has to do is win two of its last three games against Iowa and Northwestern on the road and Wisconsin at home, and it’s off to the Big Ten Championship.
Get there at 12-0 or 11-1, win it, and it’s off the College Football Playoff.
Easy peasy.
But even if that doesn’t happen – Iowa could put a serious crimp in those plans this week – the win over the No. 4 team in the College Football Playoff rankings was a program-changer.
Yeah, it is possible to win big college football games in Minneapolis.
So why is this in the Most Overrated category?
Penn State is still alive.
If was the same thing after Georgia lost to South Carolina. It was a hit, but as long as the Bulldogs win out, they’re in the College Football Playoff as the 12-1 SEC champs.
Now, the loss to the Gophers does end the possibility of Penn State getting in if it loses at Ohio State – if it was unbeaten and gave the Buckeyes a run in a loss in Columbus, it would still be in the mix – but it realistically had to win that game, anyway.
The Nittany Lions will beat Indiana and destroy Rutgers, so it all comes down to the date in Columbus. Not saying it’ll happen, but …
Pull off the upset against Ohio State, and they have a one-game shot to make the College Football Playoff by winning the Big Ten Championship against (most likely) …
Minnesota.
Week 11 Roundup
Winners & Losers | The Really Big Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: The most underrated thing was …
2. The Most Underrated Thing Was …
The Mountain West’s weird weekend.
The Mountain West is the anti-American Athletic Conference.
While the AAC is busy cranking up insane shootouts with a bazillion passing yards and tons of fun, the Mountain West has turned into the meat loaf of conferences. It’s not that bad, but you’re less than enthused if that’s what’s on your plate.
San Diego State just doesn’t seem to like to score, and that finally proved to be an issue in a 17-13 loss to a weird Nevada team. That now leaves the door open to one of the league’s two super-fun teams – Hawaii – to potentially take over the West after a wild 42-40 win over the other super-fun team, San Jose State.
The Rainbow Warriors close out at UNLV and at home against San Diego State. Win those two, and they’re almost certainly in the Mountain West Championship.
Meanwhile, Wyoming – another Mountain West team that doesn’t believe in scoring points – gave Boise State all it could handle. The Broncos won 20-17 in overtime.
Fresno State – which almost beat USC and Minnesota early on, but didn’t – has gone from being a killer under Jeff Tedford over the last two years, to likely out of a bowl game after losing at home to Utah State.
But before all of that, everything took a backseat to the tragic death of defensive lineman Nahje Flowers last week. This Lobos and Air Force rescheduled their game for later this month.
And in the end, Boise State is 8-1, has New Mexico, at Utah State, and at Colorado State to go, and will likely win the Mountain West title to finish 12-1. If that happens, the Broncos will probably go to the Cotton Bowl as the top American Athletic Conference teams keep knocking each other off.
Week 11 Roundup
Winners & Losers | The Really Big Thing
Most Underrated Thing | What It All Means
NEXT: What Is All Means: Week 10
1. What It All Means: Week 11
And after all of that, and after all of the fuss, Alabama is still probably going to find its way into this thing.
For a while there early on this season, it was easy to envision the possibility of a College Football Playoff with four first-time programs to the fun.
Wisconsin was crushing and killing, Penn State was coming up with a few nice wins, LSU was ripping everyone apart, and Florida was looking promising. At the moment, Minnesota and Baylor are wonderful stories that keep on going.
But we all know how this is probably going to play out.
After this weekend, LSU is all but locked into a College Football Playoff spot for the first time. It’ll take a total collapse – two losses – to miss out, even if it loses the SEC Championship.
Clemson would have to come up with an epic gag to not go 13-0, and Ohio State is probably going to get either Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship – neither one has more than a haymaker of a shot at pulling that off.
And if Penn State beats Ohio State to get to the Big Ten Championship? Then we have a wild debate about what to do with the 11-1 Buckeyes, but they’re looking untouchable at the moment.
Which leaves the elephant in the room.
If the committee blew off Alabama’s resumé the first time around and ranked it No. 3 on all eye-test, then what happens now when the one loss is to the team that’s probably going to be No. 1 the rest of the way?
If it’ll be LSU, Ohio State and Clemson, who’s that fourth option?
Oregon? It lost to Auburn. If Bama beats Auburn at Auburn to close things out – especially if it does so impressively – that’s it. That’s the cover for the CFP, even if the Ducks go 12-1 and win the Pac-12 title.
Utah? The loss to USC on the road could be a hard-ceiling to getting into the CFP.
Minnesota might get to the Big Ten Championship, but if it loses, at 12-1 it won’t get in over 11-1 Alabama. 2017 Wisconsin was 12-0 before losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and was left out for … 11-1 Bama.
Oklahoma? At 12-1, if it beats Baylor twice, maybe, but there’s nothing WOW on the resumé – which isn’t fair, considering Auburn would be the only big thing Bama could crow about.
Georgia? If it wins out, yeah, it’s in and Bama is out, but in the College Football Playoff rankings leading up to the finish line, losing at home to South Carolina stings.
So as the rankings keep coming out every Tuesday night, get ready for a whole lot of screaming and yelling from a portion of the public that thinks the CFP committee, ESPN, and the college football gods are biased towards the SEC and the Crimson Tide.
But that’s the problem with the system. Alabama might have just been rocked at home by LSU, and it might not have anything on its schedule worth chirping about, and it still might be considered one of the four best teams by the committee.
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Early Week 12 Line Lookahead
Rankings: AP | USA Today Coaches | FWAA
– Chad Morris fired: 5 possible options
– Predicting Second CFP Rankings
– Predicting every remaining game, conference race
Quick Thoughts: Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
– 10 Quick Thoughts On LSU 46, Alabama 41
