Just when things were starting to seem like they were shaking out last week, the conference comes unglued.
Boise State loses at home for the first time since 2023—to a Fresno State team that looked dead in the water following a pair of rough losses.
New Mexico gets in a shootout with UNLV and outscores a Rebel squad that looked poised to get back in the thick of things.
Hawaii looks like they were ready to take the next step in their developing season, only to fall to a San Jose State team that was reeling after two straight losses.
Even the nonconference action gets wacky with Army failing to convert a fourth and 2 at their own 28 with three minutes to play and a seven-point lead over Air Force, which lets a receiver get loose behind the secondary and fall on a last-second FG in regulation.
The only thing to expect this season is the unexpected—and that San Diego State will keep rolling. And let’s not forget that the lone SDSU loss was at the hands of Washington State and is becoming more and more inconceivable as the weeks go on.
But I will take another stab at trying to figure this league out this week. Maybe a lighter load this week will normalize things.
Here is a look at the four-game slate for the MW this week.
Air Force Falcons at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday, November 8
12:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: San Jose State –4.5
Over/Under: 66.5
The Spartans are winless away from home this season, but enter their homecoming contest with Air Force having won each of their last three at CEFCU Stadium. SJSU is 3-3 in their last six, and a big reason is the play of Walker Eget.
During that six-game stretch, the prolific quarterback has thrown for 352.5 yards per game with 15 touchdowns, a QB rating of 158.37, and perhaps most importantly, no interceptions.
Air Force has struggled mightily against the pass this season, ranking 132nd in the nation in passing defense.
The Falcons’ passing defense ultimately did them in late in the loss last week. The Spartans lead the nation in passing and should put up yards in bunches through the air.
As good as SJSU is throwing the ball, they are equally as bad against the pass this season, ranking dead last in the nation at stopping passing attacks.
The Falcons will obviously look to run the ball first and should find success on the ground in this one. Having said that, this could be a game the Falcons find some success through the air, and Liam Szarka may have to stretch the defense.
I think the Spartans will simply score too many points for Air Force to keep up, but look for a heavy dose of offense on both sides.
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies
Saturday, November 8
4:30 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: Utah State –9.5
Over/Under: 52.5
The Pack’s 14 points per game this season is the fourth-lowest total in the nation, and their 10 touchdowns scored are tied with UMass for the fewest scores among FBS programs.
Utah State has not exactly been lights out this season at keeping the scoreboard from lighting up on their opponent’s side. Only two MW schools have allowed more points per game this season than the Aggies’ 31.8.
The difference in this one really is the Aggies’ ability to score, while the Wolf Pack has not had a ton of success at slowing down opponents this season. Bryson Barnes should have a field day against the Nevada defense.
The Aggies have a chance to push their record to 5-4 with a potential bowl game on the horizon. Nevada is 1-7 and suffering through mental fatigue that goes along with a long season and a current six-game losing streak.
Stopping an explosive offense on the road this week seems like a big hill to climb for Jeff Choate’s squad. USU wins this one going away.
Against the spread: Utah State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Utah State
UNLV Rebels at Colorado State Rams
Saturday, November 8
6:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: UNLV –4.5
Over/Under: 62.5
The Rebels have earned bowl eligibility for the third straight season for the first time and has six wins in the first eight games for just the third time since 1984
Colorado State is also coming off consecutive losses, but unlike the Rebels, the Rams are sitting with six losses and need to win out to extend their season into bowl season.
The Rebel defense has let them down this season, especially in their pair of losses. UNLV has given up 545 yards per game in the losses and 9.73 yards per play.
It is not easy to win when you are allowing a first down per play. Colorado State has not had an explosive offense this season.
This is the first time the schools have met in Colorado since 2019; that one was won by the Rams.
The Rebels have not won in Fort Collins since 2002. That losing streak, along with their current two-game slide, ends as UNLV gets the road win.
Against the spread: UNLV
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, November 8
8:00 PM PT, Spectrum
Line: San Diego State –7
Over/Under: 50.5
Yes, at 4-0 the Aztecs still have four league games remaining on the schedule. Included in those four is a visit from Boise State next weekend.
But before SDSU can start to turn its attention to that one, it must navigate a difficult road trip to Hawaii and the dangerous Rainbow Warriors.
They say that defense and a ground game will travel. Well, the Aztecs have been good on the ground, and the defense has been absolutely lights out this season.
UH was torched through the air in their loss to San Jose State last week, but the Warriors have been good against the run all season, especially in their six wins.
Hawaii will need to be good against the run in this one as the Aztecs offense is paced by Lucky Sutton and his conference leading 102.5 rushing yards per outing.
The back is 10th nationally in rushing this season and is coming off a career-high 158 yards on the ground against Wyoming.
The Aztecs should be able to control things on the ground and run their win streak to seven-straight. If SDSU comes in overlooking Hawaii, it could turn into a nightmare road trip.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
