Finally, 11 weeks into the season, we can start to map out specific scenarios and who will make the College Football Playoff if those happen. After the huge games this week of Penn State vs Minnesota and LSU vs Alabama, we can identify who has a serious resume and who has a serious path.
We still haven’t eliminated as many teams as we might have liked to, yet. According to my Eliminator, there are 15 teams still alive. At this point last year, we had only ten teams left. (Well, 11, but one of those was UCF, not a serious contenders.) Of course, ten of those 15 are from the Big Ten and SEC. Those conferences will mostly weed themselves out. They also provide the pool of potential non-champions to get in if some of the conference champions aren’t worthy.
The Pac 12 will not get a non-champion in. In fact, the conference will have a hard time getting its champion in without some help. Either Oregon (better SOS and resume) or Utah will need to finish 12-1 to even have any chance. But a second loss eliminates those teams.
Every ACC team other than Clemson is already eliminated. The Tigers look unlikely to lose, and whether a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson team can get in will be touched on later in this post. But no one in this conference is getting in without winning the conference–and that includes Clemson.
The Big 12 has two teams still alive: Baylor and Oklahoma. Whoever doesn’t win the conference will have two losses. The committee seems to respect the Big 12 this year more than the human voters do, but not enough to get a two-loss non-champion into the Playoff.
Which leaves us with the SEC and Big Ten. Each of these conferences has five teams still alive, though all but one of the current two-loss teams–Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida–need to win a conference title to have a shot at the Playoff. If Auburn can win out, which would include beating both Georgia and Alabama, then the Tigers could have a serious claim at the No. 4 spot, especially if Oregon wins the Pac 12 and Clemson drops a game somewhere (or Baylor and Oklahoma split games, assuming they meet in the Big 12 Championship Game).
Of course, if the above happens–a Clemson loss and a Baylor-Oklahoma split–then any one-loss team remaining in the Big Ten and SEC would have a serious claim at the Playoff. And yes, that includes Alabama at 11-1. So let’s break down what, exactly, Alabama needs to get back in the Playoff picture.
Next…Alabama’s serious resume issues
Alabama’s problem
The biggest problem for Alabama right now is its total lack of a resume. The Crimson Tide’s best win is over Texas A&M. After that, Alabama’s next-best win is probably Southern Miss. Maybe Duke or Tennessee is the second-best win, and that’s not good news for the Tide.
Already, pundits and fans are prognosticating or guessing where Alabama will end up this week in the committee’s rankings. Will it be No. 5? No. 6? The problem, though, is that any such guess is based off the assumption that Alabama deserved its No. 3 ranking last week, and that the committee won’t knock the Tide down too much for losing to the presumably new No. 1 team.
These assumptions may be correct, but they are also very flawed. If we are taking honest stock of Alabama’s resume, then it’s barely a Top 10 team right now. Can Alabama really be ahead of a Georgia team that has beaten Florida and Notre Dame? (Remember, if the committee has been consistent on one thing these past five years, it’s that the voters reward good wins more than they punish bad losses–so long as those losses aren’t blowouts.) What about Minnesota, who is now undefeated and has a win far better than anything Alabama has done? Penn State’s wins over Michigan and Iowa are better than anything Alabama has done, and Penn State’s loss isn’t much worse (as of now) either.
Where the committee puts Alabama on Tuesday will tell us a lot, but not everything. The other big problem for Alabama is that the teams behind the Tide will have chances to improve their resumes, often in substantial fashions. Alabama, meanwhile, can only add a win over Auburn to the resume. That win will be valuable, sure. But it’s nowhere near enough to outweigh the Tide’s lack of an overall resume.
If Alabama wants to get in to the Playoff, it might need the committee’s sympathy more than anything else. Will the “Tua was injured” card gain Alabama a few spots? Will the committee just ignore resumes and say, “We watched Alabama; the Tide is clearly among the best”? Maybe. I don’t think it’s likely, though, so let’s lay out what Alabama needs to happen in order to have a competitive resume.
Next…Alabama’s path to the Playoff
Alabama’s path to the Playoff
Alabama actually has two separate paths to the Playoff. The easy way would be LSU dropping two of its three final SEC games–against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. The Tide would then be able to win the SEC by running the table, which would make Alabama a CFP lock. Let’s assume that doesn’t happen, though. If LSU does win the SEC West, how does Alabama make the Playoff?
The easiest way to map out Alabama’s path to the Playoff is to map out the teams ahead of it. Remember, four teams make the Playoff, so the Tide doesn’t need all of the teams ahead of it to fail. As long as only three of them succeed, Alabama will have a path into the Playoff. So, who is ahead of Alabama in the pecking order right now?
1. LSU and Georgia: What Alabama cannot afford to happen would be 11-1 Georgia beating 12-0 LSU in the SEC Championship Game. In that case, both teams would be ahead of the Tide in the final rankings. Either LSU needs to win the SEC Championship Game, or one of these two teams needs to lose at least once between now and the SEC Championship Game.
2. The Big Ten: The Big Ten is almost certainly getting a Playoff team at this point, though Wisconsin winning the conference could throw a slight wrench in that. Still, let’s assume the Big Ten gets a Playoff spot. What Alabama cannot afford would be the Big Ten getting two. Right now, the only real scenario that would leave two Big Ten teams ahead of Alabama is if Ohio State and Minnesota are both 12-0 and meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. In that case, the loser would, at absolute worst, have two ranked wins (including one Top 10 win), plus a loss no worse than Alabama’s. Minnesota at 12-1 would be a weaker resume, but still stronger than Alabama’s at 11-1. Alabama might also be concerned if Penn State wins out In that case, the Nittany Lions are ahead of the Tide, and 11-1 Ohio State (or 12-1 Minnesota) may be as well.
3. Oklahoma or Baylor: Either one of these teams will be ahead of Alabama if it wins out. 12-1 Oklahoma would have two wins over Baylor, plus wins over Texas and Oklahoma State (not to mention that the win over UCLA seems to gain value every week). Alabama’s resume just cannot compare to that, even with Oklahoma’s near-miss against Iowa State. The Cyclones, by the way, are a more valuable win than all but two of Alabama’s (remember, for Alabama to even be in the picture we have to assume it wins out, which includes beating Auburn). Baylor would similarly have a better resume than Alabama at 12-1, but the Bears might be punished for an atrocious nonconference schedule.
4. Clemson: It is debatable if 12-1 Clemson will be ahead of 11-1 Alabama. Neither resume has any real meat. Both teams would be relying on the eye test more than anything. Clemson would also have a significantly worse loss, which might prove pivotal. Still, 13-0 Clemson will obviously be ahead of Alabama. The Crimson Tide needs Clemson to lose a game, somehow. Alabama might even need Clemson to lose twice, which just isn’t happening.
5. Oregon and Utah: If either of these teams end up at 12-1, it will be a fascinating resume comparison with Alabama. Neither resume will have much meat at the top–Alabama will have a win over Auburn, while Utah/Oregon’s likely only ranked win will come against the other. After that, though, the resume slants away from the Tide. The Pac 12 is full of decent mediocre teams. Alabama’s schedule, after LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M (and Southern Miss) is filled with bad teams. Looking at each schedule, game by game, might not show a superior resume for Oregon or Utah. But if the committee looks at any wholesale strength of schedule rankings, they’ll see that Utah’s and Oregon’s will generally look superior to Alabama’s. Maybe the Tide can skate by on the comparative results against Auburn (who beat Oregon in Week 1), but I highly doubt the committee will punish the Ducks that much for playing a good nonconference game. Alabama probably needs the Pac 12 champion to have two losses.
There we have it. There are, as of now, ten teams ahead of Alabama in the pecking order. A few of those will weed themselves out. (For example, Oregon and Utah will play each other, and Ohio State can knock Penn State out of the picture in two weeks.) The Tide can afford for three of those teams to stay in front. But if Alabama wants to make the Playoff this year, then there can’t be a fourth.
