Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
There is a rule in journalism, mockingly called the “Law of Headlines.” It states that whenever a headline asks a question, the answer is always “no.” Well, I broke that rule here, because this topic deserves a full treatment. Yes, Alabama is alive. The Crimson Tide still has a path to the Playoff. It’s not a very good path, though. I map it out, in detail, in this week’s CFP Implications. As far as the Eliminator is concerned, Alabama needs to win out and needs help.
In fact, Alabama is in the worst position of all one-loss Power 5 teams, and one of only three that doesn’t currently control its own destiny. Alabama, Oregon, and Utah all need a little bit of help to get in to the Playoff. Oregon and Utah should be safe as long as at least one of the following happens:
1. Georgia doesn’t beat an undefeated LSU in the SEC Championship Game.
2. Neither Oklahoma nor Baylor wins out.
3. Clemson loses a game.
4. A two-loss team somehow wins the Big Ten.
Any of those four happening opens up the path for a one-loss Pac 12 team. Alabama needs more or less the same to occur, but also needs the Pac 12 out of the way. Like I said, I go into more detail in CFP Implications, but these are the basics of the paths for these three teams. Every other undefeated or one-loss Power 5 team is a lock if it wins out; the two-loss teams still alive need different types of help, with scenarios still too complicated to map out.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 11: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 18 teams. We eliminated three more in Week 11, so 15 teams remain in contention. Every independent and Group of 5 team has now been eliminated.
ACC:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Clemson |
Undefeated after Week 11. |
Wake Forest |
Two losses won’t make the Playoff, even with a win over Clemson. There’s just no meat on this resume to offset two losses. |
Big 12:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Baylor |
Undefeated after Week 10. |
Kansas State |
Stayed alive last week with the huge upset of Oklahoma, but now eliminated with a third loss. |
| Oklahoma |
Barely survived against Iowa State. Needs to win out to have any real shot. |
Big Ten:
| Team: |
Notes: |
Iowa |
Eliminated with third loss. |
| Michigan |
Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Heartbreaking loss to Penn State. Huge win over Notre Dame. Will still have strong resume if they win out, but will be eliminated next week unless Indiana upsets Penn State or Rutgers upsets Ohio State, as those results eliminate Michigan from the Big Ten East race. |
| Minnesota |
Undefeated after Week 11. Looking better as the season goes on. Huge win over Penn State |
| Ohio State |
Undefeated after Week 11. |
| Penn State |
Loss to Minnesota doesn’t change much. Still controls its own destiny. Now will be automatically eliminated with loss to Ohio State. |
| Wisconsin |
Impressive win over Michigan. Loss to Illinois not as awful. Not yet eliminated, but on the brink. Needs for someone else to beat Minnesota to have a chance. |
Pac 12:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Oregon |
Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Still in decent shape, but no room for error. |
| Utah |
Decent wins over Washington and Arizona State, but loss to USC doesn’t look good now. Needs to win out and beat Oregon convincingly to stay in the conversation. |
SEC:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Alabama |
Needs a lot of help after Week 11 loss to LSU. |
| Auburn |
Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. Tough losses to Florida and LSU. |
| Florida |
Hard to see a two-loss Florida team getting in with those two FCS games. Will be eliminated unless Georgia loses final two SEC games. |
| Georgia |
Good win over Notre Dame in Week 4. Ugly loss to South Carolina. Still a lock if it wins out. |
| LSU |
Undefeated after Week 11. Best resume in the country. |
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 11:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Iowa |
Lost three close games to ranked teams, but three-loss teams can’t make the Playoff. |
| Kansas State |
Eliminated with third loss. |
| Wake Forest |
With two losses, Wake Forest has no resume, even with a potential win over Clemson. There’s just no meat on this resume to offset two losses. |
Week 10:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Appalachian State |
Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Georgia Southern |
| SMU |
Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Memphis |
Week 9:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Iowa State |
Losses have been close and to good teams, but eliminated with three. |
| Missouri |
Eliminated with third loss. |
| Notre Dame |
Eliminated after blowout loss to Michigan. Blowout nature of the loss was enough to knock the Irish out, but there’s also not enough meat on the resume this year to overcome two losses. |
| Pittsburgh |
Eliminated with third loss. |
| Texas |
Eliminated with third loss. Probably should have been eliminated after almost losing to Kansas. |
Week 8:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Arizona State |
There just isn’t enough strength in the Pac 12 to get a two-loss champion in the Playoff this yer, and the Michigan State win hasn’t held up. |
| Boise State |
Eliminated with Week 8 loss to BYU. |
| Duke |
Probably could have eliminated them with two losses, but I let the fact that one was to Alabama keep them in. Definitely eliminated with a third. |
| Louisville |
Missed its shot against Clemson, and eliminated with third loss |
| N.C. State |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| TCU |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
Week 7:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Arizona |
Poor loss to Hawaii plus blowout loss to Washington. Not enough potential good wins on this resume to overcome those two. |
| Florida State |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Memphis |
Eliminated with Week 7 loss to Temple |
| Michigan State |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Mississippi State |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Texas A&M |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| USC |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Virginia |
Missed its shot against Notre Dame and picked up a second loss. Not enough potential strength on resume to overcome two losses. |
| Washington |
Wins over Hawaii, BYU, and USC lost luster. Not enough potential good wins left this season to overcome two losses. |
Week 6:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| California |
Win over Washington isn’t as valuable anymore. Lost its shot against Oregon, and win over Ole Miss won’t be enough to overcome that. |
| Colorado |
Ohio State sucked any value out of the win over Nebraska, and the loss to Air Force isn’t good. Potential win over Washington isn’t as meaningful anymore. |
| Illinois |
Eliminated with three losses, but I probably could have eliminated the Illini with just two. |
| Oklahoma State |
Missed its shot against Texas, no noteworthy nonconference wins, and loss to Texas Tech is too much. Even a potential two wins over Oklahoma won’t make this a Playoff resume. |
| Washington State |
Two bad losses (one because it was to UCLA, one because it was a blowout) and not enough potential quality wins end this season’s hopes. |
| West Virginia |
Actually has a decent potential resume, but blowout nature of loss to Missouri means the Mountaineers could not survive a second loss. |
Week 5:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Boston College |
A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years. |
| Indiana |
Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Kentucky |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Maryland |
The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Mississippi |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Navy |
Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis |
| Nebraska |
Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State |
| North Carolina |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Northwestern |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Oregon State |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Purdue |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Rutgers |
Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan. |
| Texas Tech |
Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma |
| UAB |
Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky |
| Virginia Tech |
Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke. |
Week 4:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Air Force |
Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State |
| Arkansas |
Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4 |
| Kansas |
Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect. |
| San Diego State |
Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State |
| South Carolina |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Stanford |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Temple |
Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo |
| Tennessee |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| UCF |
Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt |
| Vanderbilt |
No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Wyoming |
Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa |
Week 3:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Georgia State |
Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech |
Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii |
Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) |
Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico |
Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse |
Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy |
Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA |
Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Next … Group of 5 Eliminations from Weeks 1 and 2
Week 2:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Army |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane |
| Central Michigan |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan |
Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: |
Notes: |
| Akron |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky |
Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
