The New Orleans Saints are popular picks to knock off the almost-winless Atlanta Falcons, and that’s reflected in the latest betting odds from BetMGM. The oddsmakers have the Saints as 13.5-point home favorites over Atlanta, with an over/under set at 50.5: implying a final score close to Saints 33, Falcons 18. This follows news from Saints coach Sean Payton that running back Alvin Kamara is expected to return from a weeks-long absence with knee and ankle injuries.
It’s a small — but significant — jump from the opening line, which favored the Saints by as much as 11.5 points. If this isn’t a quantifiable expression of Kamara’s value (extending New Orleans’ odds of victory in what’s already expected to be a blowout), it’s tough to say what might be. The Saints offense dropped 36 points on the Chicago Bears and 31 points on the Arizona Cardinals in two games without Kamara, and he’s had almost a month to heal up thanks to their midseason bye week.
The Falcons haven’t left New Orleans with a win since Sept. 26, 2016, an early-season slugfest they won 45-32. Since that visit, Atlanta has scored 17 and 13 points in two visits to the Big Easy, losing each game by multiple scores. Recent history suggests the Saints should have this one well in hand, but there aren’t guarantees in the NFL. They can’t afford to take any opponent lightly, even one as lowly as the 1-7 Falcons.
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