We knew from the beginning of the year that 2019 would have a chance to develop differently than other seasons. Because of the calendar, we get two bye weeks for every team over the course of the season. That has has led to fewer games each week, because the season was more spread out. Also, in weeks like this week, we were unlucky enough to have nine ranked teams with byes this week, plus Clemson playing FCS Wofford. That’s weird point number one this year.
Weird part number two is that everyone’s schedule is incredibly backloaded. Almost none of our remaining Playoff contenders have faced each other–though they will in coming weeks. Of the 18 teams still remaining in Playoff contention, we have only seen seven games between them. One of those seven was this week’s matchup between Florida and Georgia. Of the other six, five games involved either Auburn or Wisconsin. (The last game was Kansas State vs Oklahoma.)
On top of that, top teams really haven’t played anyone. Alabama has no ranked wins. Neither do Clemson, Minnesota, Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma. Ohio State, LSU, and Georgia each have two. Baylor and Penn State each have one. That is not a long list of good wins when looking at our Playoff contenders. It’s been a weird year, because almost no one really has any resume of note.
Thankfully, that won’t last.
For as weak as schedules have been to start the year, we are going to get a whole season’s worth of matchups between contenders in the final month of the season. Of the 18 teams still in Playoff contention (which is basically every P5 team with two or fewer losses, except for Indiana and Notre Dame), we will see the following matchups: In the Big Ten, we get Penn State-Minnesota, Wisconsin-Minnesota, Iowa-Minnesota, Wisconsin-Iowa, Penn State-Ohio State, and Ohio State-Michigan. In the Big 12, we will get Oklahoma-Baylor, plus a likely rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game. The ACC still has Clemson-Wake Forest upcoming. And the SEC has a whole slew of battles, including Alabama-LSU, Alabama-Auburn, and Auburn-Georgia.
Of course, the list above doesn’t count the other good teams that these contenders will face. For example, both Penn State and Michigan still face Indiana, and both Georgia and LSU still face Texas A&M, to name just a few matchups.
The 2019 college football season has developed in a weird way. But we’re coming down the final stretch into November, and the possibilities are nearly endless. After a blockbuster Week 11, they won’t be.
Next… Pac 12 peril
The Pac 12’s losses problem
There is a growing narrative in college football right now that Oregon and Utah have a decent path to the Playoff. They have to each be 11-1 when they meet in the Pac 12 Championship Game, but then the winner will have a solid chance of getting in. There is only one problem with this narrative.
It’s just not true.
No team in CFP history has gotten into the Playoff with less than two wins over ranked teams in the final committee Top 25. Only one team had two, and that was 2017 Alabama. 2017 Alabama was by far the weakest team to ever get a Playoff bid. The Crimson Tide got in that year because Ohio State had an embarrassing loss to Iowa, Wisconsin had no good wins of its own, and Alabama probably got some extra credit for beating Florida State before Deondre Francois was lost for the season.
If Utah and Oregon meet in the Pac 12 Championship Game with each team at 11-1, the two teams will likely have a combined zero ranked wins between them. In fact, the only other Pac 12 team with fewer than four losses right now is Arizona State, and the Sun Devils still have to face Oregon. At this point, the odds of any other Pac 12 team finishing the year ranked seem incredibly slim. There will be a lot of decent wins, but no real meat on any potential resume for Oregon or Utah.
Anything can happen, and if the Big 12 or ACC collapses, Utah and Oregon could certainly have a decent argument. Then again, on resume, there will be a hard time justifying why the Big Ten or SEC runner-up has a weaker resume than the Pac 12 champion. Heck, between the group of Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Cincinnati, there will be a hard time justifying why a 12-1 Pac 12 champion has a better resume than a 12-1 AAC champion.
Obviously, at least based on every precedent the committee has shown us, a Power 5 conference will get the benefit of the doubt over a Group of 5 conference. But the fact that the topic can even legitimately be discussed at this point highlights just how much trouble the Pac 12 is in.
Next… The AAC is running away with the Group of 5 race for the Cotton Bowl
AAC in control
The American Athletic Conference is in firm control of the race for the Group of 5 bid to the Cotton Bowl. First of all, it is top-to-bottom the top Group of 5 conference. (Well, it does have UConn at the very bottom dragging it down, but other than the Huskies it’s clearly the best.) More importantly, though, the AAC has top teams with good records and strong resumes.
Cincinnati avoided disaster against ECU this week, but the Bearcats still sit at 7-1, with that loss coming to Ohio State. In the East Division, whoever comes out of that trio of Memphis, Navy, and SMU will have a very strong resume. All four of those AAC teams mentioned are ranked this week, and UCF will also find its way into the rankings if the Knights keep winning.
This is the kicker for the AAC. Because of its power at the top, its champion can definitely afford a second loss before worrying about anyone else. Maybe if Boise State and San Diego State meet at 11-1 each we could have a conversation, but any 11-2 AAC champion would have a superior resume to 12-1 Boise State or San Diego State. It’s not even worth discussing Appalachian State or Louisiana Tech at this point; neither of those teams, even at 12-1, would have a resume anywhere close to an 11-2 AAC champion. Anyone else who wants a Cotton Bowl bid is hoping the AAC champion has three losses.
The one team with a possible case is Boise State. Not because the Broncos have anywhere near a competitive resume, no. But Boise State is clearly a different team when Hank Bachmeier is at quarterback. The one potential claim is that Boise State would currently be undefeated if Bachmeier wasn’t hurt for the BYU game. We’ll likely find out on Tuesday night if the selection committee gives any weight at all to that argument.
