Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.
For the first time that I can remember this early in the season, there were no meaningful eliminations. (Our only two eliminations were Appalachian State and SMU, neither of whom were ever really in the picture.) Sometimes that happens in Week 13 or 14, but never in Week 10. Why is this year unique? There are two reasons.
The first is sheer luck. Because of the calendar, this year has two bye weeks. We lucked into the fact that of the 18 teams still alive, eight of them had byes this week (and Clemson played FCS Wofford). Fewer games means fewer losses, which lowers the likelihood of elimination.
The more important reason, though, is that we have a lot of undefeated or one-loss P5 teams right now (12, to be exact), and not many with two losses (another eight). That means that when looking at teams that pick up losses, they’re not falling behind anyone already behind them. If we get a bit of chaos, who steps up? The answer is no one. Some team could very well back into the Playoff this year, because when the dust settles there aren’t replacements waiting in the wings.
That’s why it’s time to start looking at scenarios. If Clemson beats Wake Forest but drops a game, the Tigers don’t have a great resume. What if Oklahoma loses to Iowa State and then wins out? What if the Pac 12 champion has two losses? Any one of these three things happening will make life easier on the Playoff committee. If two or even three happen? We’re looking at Big Ten or SEC non-champions.
It’s still too early to talk about specific scenarios, because there are so many possibilities. We can do that better next week, after the Penn State-Minnesota and LSU-Alabama games. For now, keep an eye on our list of teams still alive, and ask yourself which of these teams would have a better resume than a two-loss Oregon or Oklahoma. The answer, at least for now, is potentially all of them.
Next … What teams are still alive?
Week 10: Teams Remaining
We began the week with 20 teams. We eliminated two more in Week 10, so 18 teams remain in contention. Every independent and Group of 5 team has now been eliminated.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | Undefeated after Week 10. |
| Wake Forest | Crazy loss to Louisville. Still faces Clemson. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated after Week 10. |
| Kansas State | No real resume, and will be eliminated soon. Stays alive with the huge upset of Oklahoma. |
| Oklahoma | Tough upset against Kansas State. No more room for error. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Iowa | Two very close losses to good teams. Good SOS, but hanging on by a thread. |
| Michigan | Ugly loss to Wisconsin. Heartbreaking loss to Penn State. Huge win over Notre Dame. Will still have strong resume if they win out, but need help to win Big Ten East. |
| Minnesota | Undefeated after Week 10. Looking better as the season goes on. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated after Week 10. |
| Penn State | Undefeated after Week 10. |
| Wisconsin | Impressive win over Michigan. Awful loss to Illinois. Not yet eliminated, but on the brink. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Oregon | Heartbreaking loss to Auburn in Week 1. Still in decent shape, but no room for error. |
| Utah | Decent wins over Washington and Arizona State, but loss to USC doesn’t look good now. Needs to win out and beat Oregon convincingly to stay in the conversation. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated after Week 10. Huge Week 11 matchup with LSU upcoming. |
| Auburn | Picked up good nonconference win over Oregon in Week 1. Tough losses to Florida and LSU. |
| Florida | Hard to see a two-loss Florida team getting in with those two FCS games. Will be eliminated unless Georgia loses two of final three SEC games. |
| Georgia | Good win over Notre Dame in Week 4. Ugly loss to South Carolina. Still a lock if it wins out. |
| LSU | Undefeated after Week 10. Big wins over Auburn and Florida. Huge Week 11 matchup with Alabama upcoming. |
Next … What teams are out?
Teams Eliminated
Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out. Power 5 teams usually require more explanation, which I will try to provide.
Week 10:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Georgia Southern |
| SMU | Eliminated with Week 10 loss to Memphis |
Week 9:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Iowa State | Losses have been close and to good teams, but eliminated with three. |
| Missouri | Eliminated with third loss. |
| Notre Dame | Eliminated after blowout loss to Michigan. Blowout nature of the loss was enough to knock the Irish out, but there’s also not enough meat on the resume this year to overcome two losses. |
| Pittsburgh | Eliminated with third loss. |
| Texas | Eliminated with third loss. Probably should have been eliminated after almost losing to Kansas. |
Week 8:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | There just isn’t enough strength in the Pac 12 to get a two-loss champion in the Playoff this yer, and the Michigan State win hasn’t held up. |
| Boise State | Eliminated with Week 8 loss to BYU. |
| Duke | Probably could have eliminated them with two losses, but I let the fact that one was to Alabama keep them in. Definitely eliminated with a third. |
| Louisville | Missed its shot against Clemson, and eliminated with third loss |
| N.C. State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| TCU | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
Week 7:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Poor loss to Hawaii plus blowout loss to Washington. Not enough potential good wins on this resume to overcome those two. |
| Florida State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Memphis | Eliminated with Week 7 loss to Temple |
| Michigan State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Mississippi State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Texas A&M | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| USC | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Virginia | Missed its shot against Notre Dame and picked up a second loss. Not enough potential strength on resume to overcome two losses. |
| Washington | Wins over Hawaii, BYU, and USC lost luster. Not enough potential good wins left this season to overcome two losses. |
Week 6:
| Team: | Notes: |
| California | Win over Washington isn’t as valuable anymore. Lost its shot against Oregon, and win over Ole Miss won’t be enough to overcome that. |
| Colorado | Ohio State sucked any value out of the win over Nebraska, and the loss to Air Force isn’t good. Potential win over Washington isn’t as meaningful anymore. |
| Illinois | Eliminated with three losses, but I probably could have eliminated the Illini with just two. |
| Oklahoma State | Missed its shot against Texas, no noteworthy nonconference wins, and loss to Texas Tech is too much. Even a potential two wins over Oklahoma won’t make this a Playoff resume. |
| Washington State | Two bad losses (one because it was to UCLA, one because it was a blowout) and not enough potential quality wins end this season’s hopes. |
| West Virginia | Actually has a decent potential resume, but blowout nature of loss to Missouri means the Mountaineers could not survive a second loss. |
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Boston College | A combination of few chances for ranked wins in the ACC plus an ugly loss to Kansas means that the Eagles are eliminated earlier than a similar resume would be in other years. |
| Indiana | Couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan State, and the blowout nature of the Ohio State loss will keep Indiana out, even if the Hoosiers miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Kentucky | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Maryland | The blowout nature of the Penn State loss will keep Maryland out of the Playoff, even if the Terrapins miraculously win the Big Ten. |
| Mississippi | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Navy | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Memphis |
| Nebraska | Eliminated due to blowout nature of loss against Ohio State |
| North Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Northwestern | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Oregon State | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Purdue | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Rutgers | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Michigan. |
| Texas Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Oklahoma |
| UAB | Eliminated with Week 5 loss to Western Kentucky |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated due to blowout loss to Duke. |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Boise State |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with embarrassing loss to San Jose State in Week 4 |
| Kansas | Eliminated due to a combination of losses to Coastal Carolina and West Virginia, plus a general current lack of respect. |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Utah State |
| South Carolina | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Stanford | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Temple | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Buffalo |
| Tennessee | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| UCF | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Pitt |
| Vanderbilt | No amount of chaos can allow a team with three losses in the Playoff. |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with Week 4 loss to Tulsa |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Western Michigan |
| Georgia Tech | Any Power 5 team that loses to an FCS team is out. Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel in Week 3. |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Washington |
| Miami (Fl) | Only likely ranked team the rest of the season is Virginia. No meaningful wins, and incredibly unlikely to find more than one in ACC Coastal. |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Notre Dame |
| Syracuse | Two blowout losses. No currently-ranked teams remaining on schedule, and quite possible that no one else will earn a ranking. Just no resume left. |
| Troy | Eliminated with Week 3 loss to Southern Miss |
| UCLA | Eliminated with 0-3 start. |
Next … Group of 5 Eliminations from Weeks 1 and 2
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kansas State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulane |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Wisconsin |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to App State |
| Cincinnati | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Ohio State |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Kentucky |
| Marshall | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Boise State |
| Nevada | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Oregon |
| North Texas | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Utah |
| Ohio | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Tulsa |
| Southern Miss | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Mississippi State |
| Tulane | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Auburn |
| UConn | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Illinois |
| ULM | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Florida State |
| UNLV | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Arkansas State |
| UTEP | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Texas Tech |
| UTSA | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Baylor |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with Week 2 loss to Michigan State |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Illinois |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to SMU |
| Ball State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Indiana |
| BYU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Utah |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Colorado |
| ECU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to N.C. State |
| Fl. Atlantic | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Ohio State |
| Fl. International | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Tulane |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to USC |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to LSU |
| Houston | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Oklahoma |
| Kent State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Arizona State |
| Liberty | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Syracuse |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Mississippi State |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Iowa |
| MTSU | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan |
| New Mexico St | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Washington State |
| Rice | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Army |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Nebraska |
| South Florida | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wisconsin |
| Texas State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Texas A&M |
| Toledo | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Kentucky |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Michigan State |
| UMass | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Rutgers |
| Utah State | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Wake Forest |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with Week 1 loss to Central Arkansas |
