In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
On to Week 9:
NFL Week 9 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 9, 2023
👑 CeeDee Lamb
📈 Tank Dell
❄️ Cooper Kupp pic.twitter.com/EhqktiPHWP
Week 9 Summary
Tee Higgins Bounces Back
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Network
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow told Higgins before Sunday’s win against the Bills that he was going to feed him the ball, and Higgins responded in kind with his first 100-yard game of the season. The fourth-year wideout played to his possession receiver archetype, converting six first downs on his eight receptions, but he has been missing the highlight-reel contested grabs he’s flashed in years past. Through nine weeks, Higgins has just one catch on seven targets of 20-plus air yards.
Jahan Dotson Emerges
In back-to-back weeks, Dotson has burned Eagles rookie Sydney Brown for a 21-yard touchdown and ran past Patriots corner Myles Bryant for a 33-yard score. Both touchdowns came on deep seam routes over the middle, helping Dotson cross 90-plus air yards in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. (He also had a near-miss on a 45-yard throw late in the first quarter, and Howell later connected with Dotson for a 24-yard catch against zone coverage in the second quarter.)
Since he was seen holding kicks during practice, Dotson has averaged 8.7 targets and 96.3 air yards per game in his last three games. More importantly, he has consolidated targets with Curtis Samuel sidelined with a toe injury. Dotson may not score a deep touchdown every game moving forward, but he and the rest of Washington’s offense will have opportunities in trailing game scripts against the fifth-toughest strength of schedule the rest of the way.
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Amari Cooper Flexes WR1 Potential
While Deshaun Watson has played average at best this season, Cooper performs much better with him on the field. The nine-year veteran averages 2.14 PPR points per target with Watson, and 1.11 PPR points per target without him. Cooper was wide open on a 37-yard corner route and split bracket coverage to haul in a 39-yard go ball against the Cardinals, taking each catch for 59 and 49 yard gains respectively. He will face a tougher task against a staunch Ravens defense on Sunday, but Cooper should remain a dependable WR2 as the season progresses.
Week 10 Lookahead
A New Tendency in Houston?
The Texans have one of the worst run games in the NFL, ranking 26th in rushing EPA and 29th in rushing success rate. Need more evidence? Read what coach Demeco Ryans had to say after Sunday’s game, via the Coachspeak Index: “The run game isn’t quite where we wanted it to be, but if it’s not there, we still have a guy who can really throw it and make some plays. So, if that’s a strength of ours and we have to play to that, then that’s what we’ll do.”
Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports
The Texans changed course against the Bucs by throwing more than they ran on first down for the first time since Week 1 and setting a season-high in pass rate over expectation (4.5%). Quarterback C.J. Stroud rewarded the team’s willingness to pass with 470 passing yards, breaking the single-game rookie record. (His 11.0 average depth of target also led the NFL in Week 9.) Fellow rookie Tank Dell finished as the WR1 behind a monstrous 222 air yards and 29.6 PPR points. Tight end Dalton Schultz also finished as the TE1 and wideout Nico Collins slid in as the WR14.
If the Texans continue to shift toward their passing game and away from the run, there’s room for everyone in this offense to thrive, with matchups against the Bengals, Cardinals, Jaguars and Broncos on deck.
Pour One Out for the Giants’ 2023 Hopes
After Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 9, the Giants now have the third-best odds to finish with the worst record in the NFL. It won’t get better any time soon. Undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito has the second-lowest average depth of target (5.67 yards) in the NFL and only 56.2% of his air yards have been catchable. Right tackle Evan Neal will miss more time with a left ankle sprain—he was just sidelined for two games with a right ankle sprain—and both Tyrod Taylor and Darren Waller sit on injured reserve.
Maybe Jalin Hyatt will reel in a deep target once in a blue moon, but there are no fantasy assets to chase on a Giants team that’s beginning to spiral.
Don’t Panic About Cooper Kupp
For the first time in his career, Kupp has been worse than the WR40 in three consecutive weeks. The air yards were present—he had 131 air yards, the seventh-most in Week 9—but Kupp has little chance to make good on the seven targets thrown his way. Kupp’s downturn comes as the Rams have fallen back to Earth, sputtering with the fourth-worst dropback EPA (-0.221) since Week 7. During that stretch, Los Angeles has struggled without right tackle Rob Havenstein and against defenses that have switched their tendencies compared to what they've previously shown on film.
All that being said, the Rams have a Week 10 bye and coach Sean McVay said he was “optimistic” about Matthew Stafford returning the following week. An injury to Stafford’s thumb on his throwing hand might prove to be tricky, but Kupp does have a fantasy playoff stretch against the Commanders, Saints and Giants in Weeks 15, 16 and 17.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
NFL Week 9 Prayer Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/etoexO8ZYI
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 9, 2023
- Falcons wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge saw the team’s most air yards with Drake London out due to a groin injury. London returned to practice on Wednesday and should pick up where he left off.
- While Rashod Bateman did see a season-high in air yards, he hasn’t had a route participation rate higher than 66% since Week 3. The Ravens trot out a four-man rotation between Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and Bateman. It will be hard for Bateman to become a consistent flex option unless that changes.
- DeAndre Hopkins remains the only viable Titans pass catcher, and he now faces a Bucs defense that was just demolished by the Texans. Wideout Treylon Burks will likely miss Sunday’s matchup with a concussion.
Data Sources
- Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
- Catchable air yards, prayer yards and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
- Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
- Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report
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